Guardians Season in Review: David Fry
A season to remember for the swing-man
In 2024, David Fry was one of the top three hitters in baseball for two months, made an all-star team and hit one of the most memorable homers in Cleveland baseball history. Not a bad year for the 28 year-old right-handed swing-man.
I’ve long been a David Fry fan, and wrote an article on January 15th, 2024 extolling his potential to be a late bloomer, especially if primarily deployed against left-handed pitching. But, not even I could have predicted that through May 31st, 2024, with 136 plate appearances, Fry would have a 213 wRC+ and an 18.4/16/9 K/BB%. Now, for the remainder of the season, Fry put up only an 85 wRC+ and 23/7 K/BB%. His batting average on balls in play went from .392 in those first two months to .269 in his final four months of the season. So, it was just another Jeremy Lin “Linsanity” type, run, right? A guy getting blazing hot for a while and then cooling off?
It’s not quite so simple. From June 1st to August 15th, Fry had a 73 wRC+, but he then rebounded with a 117 wRC+. We learned that some time in June, Fry hurt his elbow. It clearly shows up in the game logs as Fry was seeing regular work as a catcher up until June 23rd, and from that point on, he was almost exclusively a DH. They apparently tried his elbow out again as catcher on July 23rd, but the pain must have been too intense. I wonder how much the pain and the desire to protect the ligament may have influence Fry’s slump. I suspect that 117 wRC+ is probably close to the kind of player he can be. At the very least, Fry seems like a proven lefty masher, who now has a 163 wRC+ vs. LHP and a 95 wRC+ vs RHP. Earlier in this season, it was simply automatic - if Fry got a chance to hit a lefty, he would do it. I was even at a game in May and paused and told my son that Fry was going to hit a homer against a lefty reliever and he did it on cue.
Some things to like about Fry were on display in 2024: he pulls fly balls (45%+ fly balls, close to 50% pull-rate), he walked 10% of the time, he is around average everywhere in the field from catcher, to first base, to outfield. He also seems like an incredibly hard worker who is quick to credit his teammates in interview and deprecate himself in a charming manner. It was special to see him recognized with an All-Star berth, and, while I wouldn’t bet on that happening again, I think he is absolutely a solid platoon bat for many years and I think there is now some upside for him to be a full-time player who can bat fifth or sixth in a good order. FanGraphs provided analysis of why his hitting improvement wasn’t entirely a fluke, including his pulled-fly-ball abilties and his display of some plate discipline that was glimpsed in his minor-league career.
What are some things Fry could do to improve in 2025 and beyond? Aside from recover well from the elbow surgery he just received to repair his UCL, of course, Fry can use to do some work in the cages on hitting cutters and curveballs, which, so far, are his only nemeses in terms of opposing pitches. A BIG difference for Fry from 2023 to 2024 was that he lowered his out-of-zone-swing-rate from 40.3% to 27% and his swinging-strike-rate from 14.4% to 11.2%. He will need to demonstrate that this plate discipline improvement is sustainable and some additional improvement on his chase rate would go a long way to earning him some pitches to punish. Fry will likely not be hitting in the majors until May 2025 and he won’t be able to throw the baseball on the field until the 2026 season. It will limit the Guardians’ roster flexibility to carry a platoon DH, but Fry’s bat was good enough in 2024 to make them do all they can to figure it out.
Speaking of that bat, of course, the moment everyone will remember is Fry’s walk-off against the Yankees in the epic game four win against the Yankees in the ALCS, and well they should. I’ll include a couple videos of that below. But, it’s important to remember Fry was only second in win-probability-added on the team to Jose Ramirez. He had a ton of big moments for the team all-season, including the crucial homer in game four of the ALDS, and I’m excited to see him get back to health and start delivering some more big hits in 2025 and beyond.
Highlights of Fry in 2024: