Bookies slash odds on Donald Trump winning US election
Bookies have slashed the odds of Donald Trump winning the US Presidential Election to the lowest since July.
In a 5.42am update, Betfair Exchange says Trump has a 98% chance of winning after snagging swing states North Carolina and Georgia.
Earlier in the evening, Trump’s odds were slashed to 4/9 to win with Kamala Harris ranking at 11/4 – the same Joe Biden had when Trump won Florida before Biden secured victory the day after in 2020.
An astonishing £2,000,000 was wagered in only 10 minutes, betting bosses said.
Trump’s election odds now sit at 1/33 and Harris at 26/1.
‘Donald Trump has hit the lowest odds possible on the Betfair Exchange as Kamala Harris’ routes to victory look ever more improbable,’ the betting company said. Harris’ chance of turning her fortune is 49/1 ‘in what would be the greatest ever comeback in Betfair Exchange history’.
BetOnline.ag political trader Paul Krishnamurty, who is based in the UK, said shortly after 10pm ET that ‘at the moment it’s definitely looking like Trump’.
‘The betting has moved very sharply for him,’ he told Metro. ‘We’re looking at 85% chance (of winning the election).’
Krishnamurty opined that ‘it could be an early night’ but ‘I think we’re talking at least two or three hours’.
‘Certainly, if betting is right at the moment, Trump is the overwhelming favourite,’ he said. ‘However, it will have to wait for the votes to be counted.’
Other online bookmakers are showing similar numbers. OddChecker has Trump 2/9 and Harris 35/1, while Predict It, which allows users to buy stock in a candidate’s chances of winning, has Harris at 6¢ and Trump at… 96¢.
Krishnamurty said that Trump was ‘a very strong favourite’ for the last few weeks.
‘A lot of people questioned if he should be that strong of a favourite and it looks like the market was right, betting was right, ahead of everyone else,’ he said. ‘It looks that way if he wins, of course.’
In terms of surprises, Krishnamurty said there haven’t been too many because Trump was the favourite to win North Carolina, Georgia, Nevada, Arizona and Pennsylvania, and Harris was the favourite in Wisconsin and Michigan.
Often a clear winner is known within hours of the polls closing but it can also take days – even weeks – for an official tally to be released, as each state is left to carry out their counting procedures.
But given America is so large (Alaska and Hawaii still have voters turning up late due to the time difference) the official results won’t be available for a while.
It’s often known who has won the election by the next morning but it can also take a few days.
This is because candidates must pass the 270 electoral college votes required to win, which can take longer to achieve in a close race.
And even then, results may not be finalised for weeks – or even months.
This was the case in the last US election, in 2020, when Biden wasn’t able to declare victory until November 7, four days after election day and after he won key swing state Pennsylvania.
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