Oscar odds update: ‘Anora’ still out front to win Best Picture, but now there’s a 3-way tie for 2nd place
“Anora” has remained Gold Derby’s predictions front-runner to win Best Picture at the 2025 Oscars for several months now, but the runner-up position has kept our awards pundits on their toes. In fact, there is now a three-way tie for second place, as “Emilia Perez,” “The Brutalist,” and “Conclave” all have the same odds of 17/2, compared to “Anora’s” leading 15/2 odds. Note that the Oscar odds will continue to change as our Experts from major media outlets, our website staff Editors, and our Users keep making or updating their predictions.
Sean Baker‘s “Anora” stars Mikey Madison as the titular Brooklyn stripper who gets married to a Russian oligarch (Mark Eydelshteyn). Its Oscar chances received a major boost earlier this year when it won the Palme d’Or at the Cannes Film Festival. The dramedy has the support of these 14 Oscar Experts: Anne Thompson (Indiewire), Cole Jaeger (The Oscar Expert), Erik Davis (Fandango), Gregory Ellwood (The Playlist), Joey Nolfi (Entertainment Weekly), Joyce Eng (Gold Derby), Kate Erbland (“Indiewire”), Keith Simanton (IMDb), Kevin Polowy (CBR), Marcus Jones (Indiewire), Matt Neglia (Next Best Picture), Nikki Novak (Fandango), Susan King (Gold Derby), and Thelma Adams (Gold Derby).
Jacques Audiard‘s “Emilia Perez” is a French musical crime comedy featuring Karla Sofía Gascón in the lead role, with Zoe Saldaña as Rita Mora Castro and Selena Gomez as Jessi Del Monte contending in supporting. These seven Experts now predict it will win: Andrea Mandell (People Magazine), Christopher Rosen (Gold Derby), Clayton Davis (Variety), Jenelle Riley (Variety), John Horn (NPR), Perri Nemiroff (Collider), and Wilson Morales (BlackFilmandTV).
Brady Corbet‘s “The Brutalist” is a historical drama about László Tóth (Adrien Brody), a fictional Hungarian-born Jewish architect who emigrates to the United States to achieve the American Dream with his wife (Felicity Jones). Here are the three Experts forecasting it for a Best Picture triumph: Debra Birnbaum (Gold Derby), Michael Musto (Queerty), and Peter Travers (ABC).
Edward Berger‘s “Conclave” stars Ralph Fiennes as Thomas Lawrence, a Cardinal who is tasked with overseeing the election of the late Pope’s successor, only to uncover scandals at every turn. The religious thriller has the backing of these three Experts: Brian Truitt (USA Today), Mark Johnson (The Contending), and Tariq Khan (Gold Derby).
Gold Derby’s current Best Picture Oscar lineup, in order of our predicted winners, is as follows:
1. “Anora” — 15/2 odds
2. “Emilia Perez” — 17/2 odds
3. “The Brutalist” — 17/2 odds
4. “Conclave” — 17/2 odds
5. “Dune: Part Two” — 19/2 odds
6. “Sing Sing” — 21/2 odds
7. “Gladiator II” — 15/1 odds
8. “Blitz” — 18/1 odds
9. “Nickel Boys” — 18/1 odds
10. “A Real Pain” — 22/1 odds
The ultimate champion of Best Picture will join the esteemed list of recent Oscar winners like “Oppenheimer,” “Everything Everywhere All at Once,” “CODA,” “Nomadland,” and “Parasite.” See our historical gallery.
Have YOU made your Oscar predictions yet? It’s fun and easy — get started right now! The nominations will be announced on January 17, 2025 and the Academy Awards ceremony is scheduled for Sunday, March 2 on ABC.
SIGN UP for Gold Derby’s free newsletter with latest predictions