Republicans eye 53-seat Senate majority with Casey in trouble in Pennsylvania

Senate Republicans are feeling optimistic they’ll expand their majority to 53 seats next year as Sen. Bob Casey (D) is trailing Republican David McCormick in Pennsylvania by more than 50,000 votes with 95 percent of the vote counted.

They had a huge night on Tuesday, picking up Sen. Joe Manchin’s (I) seat in West Virginia and knocking off 3rd-term Sens. Sherrod Brown (D) and Jon Tester (D) by comfortable margins in Ohio and Montana to guarantee themselves a 52-seat Senate majority next year.

Now Senate GOP strategists are feeling confident about defeating Casey, who has represented Pennsylvania in the Senate since 2006, as well.

“Pennsylvania is likely R,” said a Senate GOP strategist.

Election officials are still waiting to count about 50,000 ballots in Cambria County, a Republican stronghold, because of scanner malfunctions.

Mark Davin Harris, a consultant to McCormick’s campaign, predicted on the social media platform X that the uncounted 10,000 mail-in ballots from Democratic-leaning Chester County and the uncounted 30,000 mail-in ballots from Philadelphia would not be enough to allow Casey to catch up to McCormick.

“Not only can Casey not [catch] McCormick but the odds are McCormick lead will grow in the hours to come. This is all over but the official call,” he posted.

McCormick helped former President Trump’s decisive victory in the state. Trump carried Pennsylvania with 51 percent of the vote, leading Harris by more than 155,000 votes with 95 percent of the vote counted.

Senate Republicans could even grow their majority to 54 seats as the race between Sen. Jacky Rosen (D) and Republican Sam Brown is a “toss-up” in Nevada. Brown leads Rosen by fewer than 1,000 votes with 84 percent of the vote counted.

Senate Republicans, however, think that the race may tilt to Rosen.

The GOP strategist said a lot of the outstanding votes in Nevada are mail-in ballots likely to favor the Democratic incumbent but pointed out that Republicans have captured a significantly larger share of mail-in votes compared to 2020.

“I don’t know about Arizona … she does keep chipping away at that lead and there’s a lot of votes outstanding still,” said the source.

And Republicans are still holding out hope that Republican Kari Lake may catch up to Rep. Ruben Gallego (D) in Arizona, though the Democrat holds a sizeable lead.

Gallego was ahead of Lake by 61,000 votes, leading 50 percent to 48 percent, with 60 percent of the vote counted.

Senate Democrats got some good news Wednesday morning when Decision Desk HQ projected Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D) the winner in Wisconsin.

Baldwin led businessman Eric Hovde by more than 28,000 votes, or 49.4 percent to 48.5 percent with more than 95 percent of the vote counted.

Senate Republican Whip John Thune (S.D.), who is running to become the next Senate GOP leader, expressed optimism that the expected Senate GOP majority would continue to grow.

“As we wait for additional results, I am optimistic that President Trump will be successful, our majority will grow stronger, and we can continue our work together to create a safer and more secure country for every American,” he said in a statement released early morning.

He later congratulated Trump on his victory and pledged to “work hand-in-hand with the Trump-Vance administration.”

Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas), who is also running for the top Senate GOP leadership job, said he expects the incoming Republican majority will work “hand in glove” with Trump.

“I am looking forward to continuing to serve our nation working hand in glove with him and my Republican colleagues to kickstart his administration and make America great again by making the Senate work again,” he said.  

Republican candidates Tim Sheehy and Bernie Moreno wound up winning by comfortable margins in Montana and Ohio, the top two Republican targets on the Senate map after West Virginia, which they expected to win easily.

Sheehy beat Tester by 8 points, 53 percent to 45 percent, in Montana with 92 percent of the vote counted while Moreno beat 4 points, 50 percent to 46 percent, with more than 95 percent of the vote counted in Ohio.

The Senate Republican incumbents who were thought to be in danger in Nebraska, Texas and Florida, all ended up winning fairly easily.

Sen. Deb Fischer (R-Neb.) defeated Dan Osborn by 8 points, 54 percent to 46 percent, with more than 95 percent of the vote counted in Nebraska.

Sen. Ted Cruz (R) defeated Rep. Colin Allred (D) by 9 points, 53 percent to 44 percent, with more than 95 percent of the vote counted in Texas.

And Sen. Rick Scott (R) beat former Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell (D) by 13 points, 56 percent to 43 percent, with more than 95 percent of the vote counted in Florida.

“When you calculate the amount of money that Democrats spent in Florida, Nebraska and Texas to lose by nearly double digits in every state, and then you look at how many votes Bob Casey is likely to lose by, it’s really funny,” said the Senate GOP strategist.

The strategist predicted a 53-seat Senate GOP majority would be the most likely final outcome once all the ballots are counted.

“We wanted 52 [seats] but we also wanted to knock off [a Democratic incumbent] in one of these blue wall states,” such as Pennsylvania, the source said.