Winds shift toward GOP in fight for House

The neck and neck battle for control of the House in the next Congress appears to be shifting in favor of Republicans as results roll in from the most competitive districts a day after voting ended. 

While the contest for the gavel remains too close to call officially — and dozens of races have yet to be finalized — the momentum was clearly moving with the GOP on Wednesday as more ballots were counted and the battlefield shrunk.

Democrats, to be sure, are still holding out hope they can notch control of the lower chamber as a check on the second Trump administration. Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) said “the House remains very much in play” Wednesday afternoon, pointing to a number of too-close-to-call races.

The mounting GOP wins, however, are drawing a rosier picture for Republicans.

In Nebraska, four-term GOP Rep. Don Bacon survived his toughest challenge to date in a district that Democrats saw as a top pickup opportunity — and a must-win — in their effort to flip the lower chamber next year. 

In Pennsylvania, Democratic Rep. Susan Wild, a four-term veteran who was a top GOP target, conceded defeat to Republican state Rep. Ryan Mackenzie.

Rep. Matt Cartwright, another Keystone State Democrat who has served for 12 years in the House, fell to his GOP challenger, local business owner Rob Bresnahan.

And in Pennsylvania’s third toss-up race, Republican Rep. Scott Perry, a former chair of the far-right House Freedom Caucus, secured a win against Democratic challenger Janelle Stelson, a former Republican and local media celebrity, in a contest that had shifted toward Democrats in the final leg of the campaign.

Adding to the ominous signs for Democrats, analysts at the Cook Political Report, a leading election handicapper, predicted Wednesday that the boost from President-elect Trump’s runaway victory for a second term in the White House would be enough to propel Republicans into the House majority again next year. 

Decision Desk HQ’s prediction model by Wednesday afternoon put Republicans with more than a 90 percent chance of winning control of the lower chamber.

The combination was enough that, despite the long list of House races still outstanding, top GOP leaders were already voicing confidence they’d keep their House majority for the next two years. 

“As more results come in it is clear that, as we have predicted all along, Republicans are poised to have unified government in the White House, Senate, and House,” Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) said in a statement Wednesday.

“House Republicans have been successful in securing critical flips in swing states including Pennsylvania and Michigan, while our battle-tested incumbents have secured re-election from coast to coast. The latest data and trends indicate that when all the votes are tabulated, Republicans will have held our majority, even though we faced a map with 18 Biden-won seats,” Johnson said.

House Majority Leader Steve Scalise (R-La.) also said that victory was imminent.

“Last night the American people spoke loud and clear and resoundingly rejected the disastrous far-left direction of the Biden-Harris Administration. As returns continue to come in, it appears that voters have handed Republicans unified control of Washington, with House Republicans expected to hold our majority,” Scalise said in a Wednesday statement.

Despite the Republicans’ good night, the House contest was hardly a wave. Democrats secured a number of victories in hard-fought battleground districts that will prevent Republicans — if they do keep the gavel — of having the luxury of a big cushion to work with. 

Most notably, Democrats are projected to have picked off at least two incumbent Republicans in New York — Reps. Brandon Williams and Marc Molinaro — and they appeared on track to knock off a third in Rep. Anthony D’Esposito. 

Democrats also retained control of the open seat in north-central Virginia being vacated by retiring Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D) — a district Republicans had hoped to pick up. They kept the “toss-up” seat left open by retiring Democratic Rep. Dan Kildee in Michigan. And several of their most vulnerable incumbents put wins on the board, including Reps. Pat Ryan (D) in New York, Don Davis in North Carolina, and Gabe Vasquez in New Mexico.

And they successfully defended their seat in Maine’s 2nd Congressional District, with incumbent Rep. Jared Golden (D) beating back his challenger in an area Trump carried by 6.1 percentage points in 2020.

Democratic leaders insisted on Wednesday that they’re still in the fight, pointing to close races featuring GOP incumbents in Iowa, Arizona and Oregon. A number of toss-up races also remain uncalled in California.

“The party that will hold the majority in the House of Representatives in January 2025 has yet to be determined,” Jeffries said in his statement. “We must count every vote.”

Still, as the House map comes into clearer view, some rank-and-file Democrats are beginning to come to terms with the emerging reality: that they will be relegated to the minority in a Washington dominated by Republican control.

“The results last night were shocking,” Rep. Josh Gottheimer (D-N.J.) wrote on social platform X. “So many of us woke up with a pit in our stomach, worried about our children, our country, and our future. There is so much at stake. The issues we fight for and the values that guide us are more important than ever.”

But as several critical races remain uncalled, questions are still swirling about the final margin in the House. That detail that will significantly impact how a Republican majority would govern in the 119th Congress — or is unable to. 

The House GOP’s razor-thin margin in the current Congress and fractious caucus led to the historic ouster of former Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.); must-pass legislation being blocked or stalled; and numerous other instances of party leaders struggling to corral the rank-and-file members.