The Case of Luis Severino and the Qualifying Offer

After pitching his first full season since 2018, the Mets tendered Luis Severino the $21.06 million qualifying offer. Severino made 31 starts in the regular season, tossing 182 innings with a 3.91 ERA, a 101 ERA+, and 161 strikeouts against 60 walks. Severino’s underlying metrics were mostly in line with his surface numbers, posting a 4.21 FIP, 3.88 xERA, and 4.12 xFIP.

Severino continued to show his value to the team with three gutsy performances in the playoffs. He gritted through six innings on 105 pitches in Game 1 of the Wild Card Series, allowing four runs (three earned) and retiring the last eight batters to earn the win. Severino was burned by a pair of sixth-inning homers in Game 2 of the NLDS, but still mustered a quality start, allowing three runs and striking out seven with no walks in six innings. In Game 3 of the NLCS, Severino issued four walks but held the Dodgers to just two unearned runs across 4 2/3 innings, though he was saddled with the loss as the Mets were silenced, 8-0.

Severino’s season included some inconsistency – he had a 2.31 ERA in April but got beat up for a 4.97 ERA in 29 innings in May. He posted a solid 3.42 ERA in June but had his worst month of the year in July, to the tune of a 5.81 ERA in 26 1/3 innings. Severino gave up eight earned runs in 10 innings over his first two starts of August but snapped out of his slump with a complete-game shutout against the Marlins, just the second complete game of his career.

Overall though, Severino was a workhorse, and he finally had a season in which he avoided a trip to the injured list. Severino pitched at least six innings in 18 of his starts, giving the Mets some much-needed length to rest their heavily-worked bullpen. Severino’s fastball velocity remained consistent throughout the season, averaging as low as 95.8 miles per hour in May and as high as 96.6 MPH in August. He also added a sweeper to his arsenal, which generated a strong 38.6% whiff rate. While he still was somewhat prone to the home run ball, Severino’s 35.6% hard-hit rate was his lowest mark over a full season and his 45.2% ground-ball rate is his highest since 2017.

Recommendation

MLB Trade Rumors predicts Severino will receive a three-year, $51 million contract, while Spotrac projects him to get a four-year deal worth $55.9 million ($13.9 million annually). Severino made considerable progress in 2024 after being one of the worst pitchers in baseball the year prior, but it’s hard to envision any team paying him more than $20 million annually. While it would be reasonable for him to pursue a multi-year contract, it would be wise for Severino to bet on himself and take the qualifying offer. If he accepts it, he could set himself up for a greater payday if he has another strong season.

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