Looking at the Cavs’ offensive metrics
Cavs news and links for Friday, Nov. 8.
The Cleveland Cavaliers get one of their best tests of the early season against the Golden State Warriors. We’ll see how they do later tonight.
The first sip
Your advanced metrics are going to look good if you’re 9-0. The Cavs’ stats certainly are as they have the third-best point differential, second-best offense, and the third-ranked defense. They’re the only team in the top five in those three categories.
Unsurprisingly, this has led to good results for their best lineups. The Cavs’ core four of Darius Garland, Donovan Mitchell, Evan Mobley, and Jarrett Allen have outscored opponents by 11.3 points (83rd percentile) per 100 possessions with a solid 117.1 offensive rating (72nd percentile) when they share the floor. For comparison, last regular season they outscored opponents by just 2.7 points per 100 possessions (67th percentile) with a mediocre 113.6 offensive rating (40th percentile). This is the biggest difference under Kenny Atkinson. It’s also the most important thing he needed to do.
The drastic offensive changes have led to that. This is mostly due to the pace they’re playing with. The Cavs are averaging 100.67 possessions per game which is the 12th fastest in the league. Last season they were 24th with 97.62 possessions. Perhaps more importantly, they’re getting their shots early in possessions. This includes getting the ball up earlier in the shot clock.
The off-ball movement has revolutionized this offense as well. This is seen in the speed they’re playing offense. The average player is going 4.76 miles per hour on offense which is the fourth highest in the league. By comparison, they were 12th last season. More and quicker movement has led to better numbers in the half-court—they’re third in half-court offensive rating compared to 18th last season—and in transition where they jumped from fourth to second.
The three-point volume is nearly identical to what it was last season. The Cavs have increased corner three-point shots and greatly increased three-point percentage (42.1% compared with 36.7%). This will likely come down, but they’re generating more quality looks.
Last season they attempted 17.2 wide-open threes per game and converted 39.6% of them. This season they’re generating 19.8 and knocking them down at a 51.1% clip. Garland is one of the biggest beneficiaries of this change. He is taking four of those wide-open threes per game and is hitting 55.6% of them.
The defense has been good and will likely continue to be that way. The offense is more of a question mark. We’ll see if that continues. Tonight will be a good test as they take on the Warriors’ second-ranked defense.
Notable NBA games this weekend
- Cavs vs. Warriors - Friday, 7:30 PM
- Nets. vs. Celtics - Friday, 7:30 PM
- Bucks vs. Knicks - Friday, 7:30 PM
- Suns vs. Mavs - Friday, 7:30 PM, ESPN
- Heat vs. Nuggets - Friday, 9 PM
- 76ers vs. Lakers - Friday, 10 PM, ESPN
- Jazz vs. Spurs - Saturday, 5 PM, NBA TV
- Cavs vs. Nets - Saturday, 7 PM, NBA TV
- Raptors vs. Clippers - Saturday, 10:30 PM, NBA TV
- Celtics vs. Bucks - Sunday, 3:30 PM
- Knicks vs. Pacers - Sunday, 5 PM
- Warriors vs. Thunder - Sunday, 7 PM