MANILA, Philippines – The weather bureau further expanded rainfall and wind warnings in Luzon early Sunday afternoon, November 10, as Severe Tropical Storm Nika (Toraji) slightly intensified over the Philippine Sea.

Nika’s maximum sustained winds increased from 100 kilometers per hour to 110 km/h, said the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) in its 2 pm bulletin on Sunday. The severe tropical storm’s gustiness is now up to 135 km/h from 125 km/h.

Nika is on track to become a typhoon on Sunday, then reach its peak intensity before hitting land. Under PAGASA’s classification, a typhoon has maximum sustained winds of 118 to 184 km/h.

Nika was already 425 kilometers east of Infanta, Quezon, at 1 pm on Sunday. It has been moving fast, still heading west at 30 km/h.

Nika is still projected to make landfall in Isabela or Aurora on Monday morning or early afternoon, November 11. Afterwards, it will cross mainland Luzon, where “a short period of weakening” is expected, then emerge over the West Philippine Sea on Monday evening, where it could re-intensify.

Based on PAGASA’s latest rainfall advisory at 2 pm on Sunday, the provinces of Aurora and Isabela are already expected to have heavy to intense rain in the next 24 hours.

Sunday afternoon, November 10, to Monday afternoon, November 11

• Heavy to intense rain (100-200 millimeters): Aurora, Isabela
• Moderate to heavy rain (50-100 mm): Cagayan, Apayao, Kalinga, Mountain Province, Ifugao, Nueva Vizcaya, Quirino, Quezon, Catanduanes, Camarines Norte, Camarines Sur, Northern Samar

Monday afternoon, November 11, to Tuesday afternoon, November 12

• Intense to torrential rain (more than 200 mm): Cagayan, Isabela, Apayao, Kalinga, Aurora
• Heavy to intense rain (100-200 mm): Abra, Mountain Province, Ifugao, Benguet, Ilocos Norte, Ilocos Sur, Quirino, Nueva Vizcaya
• Moderate to heavy rain (50-100 mm): Quezon, Tarlac, Pangasinan, La Union, Nueva Ecija

Tuesday afternoon, November 12, to Wednesday afternoon, November 13

• Moderate to heavy rain (50-100 mm): Apayao, Abra, Ilocos Norte, Ilocos Sur

All areas affected by rain must stay on alert for floods and landslides.

The weather bureau also updated the list of areas under tropical cyclone wind signals as of 2 pm on Sunday. Changes include placing the entire Metro Manila — not just the region’s northern portion — under Signal No. 1. Wind signals are raised in advance to give affected areas time to prepare for winds.

Signal No. 2

Gale-force winds (62 to 88 km/h), minor to moderate threat to life and property

• northern and central parts of Aurora (Dilasag, Casiguran, Dinalungan, Dipaculao, Maria Aurora, Baler)
• Isabela
• Quirino
• southern part of Cagayan (Solana, Iguig, Peñablanca, Tuguegarao City, Enrile)
• Nueva Vizcaya
• Kalinga
• Mountain Province
• Ifugao
• eastern part of Benguet (Mankayan, Buguias, Kabayan, Itogon, Bokod, Atok)
• northern part of Nueva Ecija (Carranglan, Pantabangan)
• northeastern part of Pangasinan (San Nicolas, Natividad, San Quintin)

Signal No. 1

Strong winds (39 to 61 km/h), minimal to minor threat to life and property

• rest of Cagayan including Babuyan Islands
• Apayao
• Abra
• Ilocos Norte
• Ilocos Sur
• rest of Pangasinan
• La Union
• rest of Benguet
• rest of Aurora
• Tarlac
• northern and central parts of Zambales (Santa Cruz, Candelaria, Masinloc, Palauig, Iba, Botolan, Cabangan, San Marcelino, San Felipe, San Narciso)
• rest of Nueva Ecija
• Pampanga
• Bulacan
• Metro Manila
• Rizal
• eastern part of Laguna (Santa Maria, Mabitac, Pakil, Pangil, Famy, Siniloan, Paete, Kalayaan, Cavinti, Lumban, Luisiana, Santa Cruz, Magdalena, Pagsanjan, Majayjay, Liliw, Nagcarlan, Pila, Victoria)
• eastern part of Quezon (Calauag, Guinayangan, Tagkawayan, Pitogo, San Andres, Buenavista, San Francisco, Pagbilao, Infanta, Lopez, Catanauan, Mulanay, Unisan, General Luna, Plaridel, Quezon, Alabat, Sampaloc, Padre Burgos, Macalelon, Mauban, Perez, Agdangan, Gumaca, Atimonan, Real, San Narciso, General Nakar, Lucban, Tayabas City, Lucena City) including Polillo Islands
• Camarines Norte
• Camarines Sur
• Catanduanes
• northeastern part of Albay (Malinao, Tiwi, Bacacay, Tabaco City, Malilipot, Rapu-Rapu)

The highest possible tropical cyclone wind signal due to Nika is Signal No. 4.

The northeasterly windflow is also bringing strong to gale-force gusts to these areas:

Sunday, November 10

• Batanes

Monday, November 11

• Batanes, Batangas, Marinduque, Romblon, Camarines Sur, Catanduanes

Tuesday, November 12

• Batanes, Cagayan including Babuyan Islands

In addition, there is a moderate to high risk of storm surges in Ilocos Norte, Ilocos Sur, La Union, Pangasinan, Cagayan including Babuyan Islands, Isabela, Zambales, Aurora, Quezon including Polillo Islands, Camarines Norte, Camarines Sur, and Catanduanes in the next 48 hours.

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For sea conditions in the next 24 hours, PAGASA maintained the following outlook:

Up to very rough or high seas (travel is risky for all vessels)

• Seaboards of Isabela and northern Aurora – waves up to 7 meters high
• Remaining seaboard of Aurora; northern and eastern seaboards of Polillo Islands; seaboard of
  Camarines Norte – waves up to 5.5 meters high
• Eastern seaboard of mainland Cagayan; northern seaboards of Camarines Sur and Catanduanes – waves up to 4.5 meters high

Up to rough seas (small vessels should not venture out to sea)

• Remaining seaboard of Catanduanes – waves up to 4 meters high
• Seaboards of Ilocos Norte, Ilocos Sur, Batanes, and Babuyan Islands; remaining seaboard of mainland Cagayan – waves up to 3.5 meters high
• Eastern seaboards of mainland Quezon, Albay, and Sorsogon; northern seaboard of Northern Samar; remaining seaboard of Ilocos Region and Polillo Islands – waves up to 3 meters high

Up to moderate seas (small vessels should take precautionary measures or avoid sailing, if possible)

• Eastern seaboard of Northern Samar – waves up to 2.5 meters high
• Eastern seaboards of Eastern Samar and Dinagat Islands; seaboard of Kalayaan Islands – waves up to 2 meters high

Nika is the Philippines’ 14th tropical cyclone for 2024, and the second for November, coming immediately after Typhoon Marce (Yinxing), which battered Northern Luzon.

It could leave the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) on Tuesday afternoon or evening, November 12.

Meanwhile, the low pressure area (LPA) outside PAR was located 2,175 kilometers east of Guiuan, Eastern Samar, as of 10 am on Sunday.

The LPA still has a high chance of developing into a tropical depression within 24 hours. Updates are expected in the coming hours and days. – Rappler.com