Severe Tropical Storm Ofel exits PAR but may still reenter, head for Taiwan

MANILA, Philippines – Severe Tropical Storm Ofel (Usagi) left the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) on Friday afternoon, November 15, but it may still reenter in the evening.

As of 4 pm on Friday, Ofel was located 205 kilometers west northwest of Itbayat, Batanes, outside PAR. It slightly slowed down, moving north northwest at 15 kilometers per hour from 20 km/h.

Ofel also further weakened, with its maximum sustained winds down to 100 km/h from 110 km/h. Its gustiness also eased to up to 125 km/h from 135 km/h.

The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) said in a briefing past 5 pm that Ofel is projected to recurve toward the sea southwest of Taiwan from Friday evening to early Saturday morning, November 16. Taiwan is within PAR.

Ofel could then make landfall along the southwestern coast of Taiwan on Saturday morning or afternoon, then cross the “rugged terrain” there before emerging over the sea east of Taiwan on Sunday, November 17.

Ofel may also further weaken “due to the increasingly unfavorable environment and interaction with the mountainous terrain of Taiwan,” PAGASA said.

By Sunday evening or early Monday morning, November 18, Ofel may become just a remnant low.

Ofel is no longer bringing significant rain to any part of the country, although Batanes may still have scattered rain showers and thunderstorms due to the severe tropical storm. During the height of Ofel’s onslaught, rain in Northern Luzon had reached torrential levels.

As of 5 pm on Friday, only the municipality of Itbayat in Batanes remains under Signal No. 1, which means it may still see strong winds. The highest tropical cyclone wind signal raised due to Ofel was Signal No. 5.

At its peak, Ofel was a super typhoon with maximum sustained winds of 185 km/h, reaching this category early Thursday morning, November 14. But hours later, it was downgraded to a typhoon, before it made landfall in Baggao, Cagayan, at 1:30 pm that day.

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Meanwhile, for sea conditions in the next 24 hours, moderate to rough seas will persist in certain seaboards.

Up to rough seas (small vessels should not venture out to sea)

• Seaboard of Batanes – waves up to 3.5 meters high

Up to moderate seas (small vessels should take precautionary measures or avoid sailing, if possible)

• Seaboards of Babuyan Islands, Ilocos Norte, and mainland Cagayan – waves up to 2.5 meters high
• Remaining seaboards of Ilocos Region and Cagayan Valley – waves up to 2 meters high

Ofel is the Philippines’ 15th tropical cyclone for 2024, and the third for November, after Marce (Yinxing) and Nika (Toraji), which both peaked as typhoons and pummeled Northern Luzon.

Aside from Ofel, PAGASA is monitoring Typhoon Pepito (Man-yi). Separate story on PAGASA’s latest Pepito bulletin to follow here. – Rappler.com