More rain, wind warnings as Typhoon Pepito rapidly intensifies

MANILA, Philippines – Typhoon Pepito (Man-yi) continued to rapidly intensify on Friday afternoon, November 15, with its maximum sustained winds increasing further from 130 kilometers per hour to 150 km/h.

The typhoon’s gustiness is now up to 185 km/h from the previous 160 km/h.

The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) said in a briefing past 5 pm on Friday that Pepito is still expected to undergo rapid intensification until Saturday, November 16, and could strengthen into a super typhoon before making landfall.

Under PAGASA’s classification, a super typhoon has maximum sustained winds of 185 km/h or above.

Pepito was already 465 kilometers east of Guiuan, Eastern Samar, as of 4 pm. It continues to move relatively fast, heading west northwest at 30 km/h.

PAGASA’s latest rainfall advisory shows moderate to heavy rain from the typhoon is already expected to hit three provinces in the next 24 hours. The rain may trigger floods and landslides.

Friday afternoon, November 15, to Saturday afternoon, November 16

• Moderate to heavy rain (50-100 millimeters): Northern Samar, Eastern Samar, Sorsogon

Saturday afternoon, November 16, to Sunday afternoon, November 17

• Intense to torrential rain (more than 200 mm): Catanduanes, Camarines Norte, Camarines Sur, Sorsogon, Albay
• Heavy to intense rain (100-200 mm): Aurora, Quezon, Masbate, Northern Samar, Eastern Samar
• Moderate to heavy rain (50-100 mm): Metro Manila, Cavite, Laguna, Batangas, Rizal, Leyte, Samar, Biliran, Bataan, Pampanga, Bulacan, Romblon, Marinduque, Samar

Sunday afternoon, November 17, to Monday afternoon, November 18

• Intense to torrential rain (more than 200 mm): Quezon
• Heavy to intense rain (100-200 mm): Metro Manila, Rizal, Aurora, Pangasinan, Bataan, Zambales, Pampanga, Tarlac, Bulacan, Nueva Ecija
• Moderate to heavy rain (50-100 mm): Cavite, Laguna, Batangas, Camarines Norte, Camarines Sur, Marinduque, Romblon, Oriental Mindoro, La Union, Benguet, Nueva Vizcaya, Quirino

More areas were also placed under tropical cyclone wind signals as of 5 pm on Friday:

Signal No. 2

Gale-force winds (62 to 88 km/h), minor to moderate threat to life and property

• eastern part of Northern Samar (Mapanas, Gamay, Palapag, Lapinig, Silvino Lobos, Laoang, Catubig, Las Navas, Pambujan, Mondragon, San Roque, Catarman, Lope de Vega)
• northern part of Eastern Samar (Arteche, Oras, San Policarpo, Dolores, Jipapad, Maslog, Can-avid)
• northeastern part of Samar (San Jose de Buan, Matuguinao)

Signal No. 1

Strong winds (39 to 61 km/h), minimal to minor threat to life and property

• Aurora
• Quezon
• eastern part of Laguna (Santa Maria, Famy, Siniloan, Pangil, Mabitac, Pakil, Paete, Kalayaan, Lumban, Cavinti, Luisiana, Pagsanjan, Santa Cruz, Magdalena, Majayjay, Liliw, Nagcarlan, San Pablo City, Rizal)
• Marinduque
• Camarines Norte
• Camarines Sur
• Catanduanes
• Albay
• Sorsogon
• Masbate
• rest of Northern Samar
• rest of Eastern Samar
• rest of Samar
• Biliran

The highest possible tropical cyclone wind signal due to Pepito is Signal No. 5.

In addition, there is a moderate to high risk of “life-threatening” storm surges “with peak heights reaching 3 meters above mean sea level” in Aurora, Quezon, southeastern Batangas, northwestern Romblon, Marinduque, Bicol, Northern Samar, Eastern Samar, Samar, and Biliran within 48 hours.

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PAGASA said Pepito is projected to move generally west northwest in the next five days.

It is still “more likely” to make landfall in Catanduanes on Saturday evening or early Sunday morning, November 17. But considering the cone of probability, the weather bureau is not ruling out landfall in Camarines Sur, Albay, or Sorsogon also on Saturday evening or early Sunday morning; in Northern Samar on Saturday afternoon or evening; or in Quezon or Aurora on Sunday afternoon or evening.

“Regardless of the landfall point,” Pepito is likely to pass over or near the landmass of Bicol, Quezon, Central Luzon provinces, and Pangasinan during the weekend, before emerging over the West Philippine Sea on Sunday evening or Monday morning, November 18.

All areas which will be placed under rainfall and wind warnings should prepare for the typhoon, not just areas listed as possible landfall sites.

In terms of intensity, PAGASA said Pepito may slightly weaken “after its initial passage over land,” followed by further weakening on Sunday when it crosses the landmass of Central Luzon. But the weather bureau emphasized that Pepito will still cross land as a typhoon, which means it will still be a serious threat.

Pepito may weaken into a severe tropical storm over the West Philippine Sea on Monday.

In the next 24 hours, conditions in seaboards affected by Pepito will be dangerous.

Up to very rough or high seas (travel is risky for all vessels)

• Eastern seaboard of Catanduanes, Albay, Sorsogon, and Eastern Samar; northern and eastern seaboards of Northern Samar – waves up to 8 meters high
• Remaining seaboard of Catanduanes; eastern seaboard of Camarines Sur – waves up to 5.5 meters high
• Northern seaboard of Camarines Sur – waves up to 4.5 meters high

Up to rough seas (small vessels should not venture out to sea)

• Eastern seaboard of Dinagat Islands – waves up to 4 meters high
• Seaboard of Surigao del Sur and Siargao Island – waves up to 3.5 meters high
• Seaboards of Batanes, Isabela, Aurora, and northern mainland Quezon; northern and eastern seaboards of Polillo Islands; eastern seaboard of mainland Cagayan and Davao Oriental; remaining seaboard of Northern Samar – waves up to 3 meters high

Up to moderate seas (small vessels should take precautionary measures or avoid sailing, if possible)

• Remaining seaboard of Eastern Samar and Cagayan including Babuyan Islands, northern seaboard of Dinagat Islands; eastern seaboard of Leyte; southern seaboard of Samar – waves up to 2.5 meters high
• Remaining seaboards of Camarines Sur, Albay, Sorsogon, Dinagat Islands, and Surigao del Norte including the rest of Siargao Island; northern seaboard of Ilocos Norte, Masbate including Ticao Island and Burias Island, and Leyte; seaboards of Samar and Biliran; eastern seaboard of Southern Leyte and Quezon including the rest of Polillo Islands – waves up to 2 meters high

Pepito is the Philippines’ 16th tropical cyclone for 2024. It is also the fourth tropical cyclone for November alone, after Marce (Yinxing), Nika (Toraji), and Ofel (Usagi).

Counting from October 21 to present — starting with Kristine (Trami) and Leon (Kong-rey) — Pepito is already the country’s sixth tropical cyclone in less than a month. – Rappler.com