Pac-12 bowl projections: California rivalry games carry short- and long-term consequences (for the teams and coaches)

In one regard, the Pac-12 hasn’t splintered: All 12 schools remain tied to the bowls that have been affiliated with the conference in recent years. Exceptions are made for teams that qualify for the College Football Playoff as conference winners or at-large entrants. Otherwise, what’s past is present for the 2024-25 seasons.

The Hotline will provide weekly projections for the teams throughout the regular season.

Please note: We also unveil our CFP picks each Monday.

The first of two rivalry weekends across the West brings critical games in California, one in prime time in the Rose Bowl and the other during a possible atmospheric river in Berkeley.

Both carry significant postseason ramifications for the teams and longer-term consequences for the coaches — at least for two of the coaches.

Let’s start in Berkeley, where a storm system from the central Pacific could result in the 127th Big Game being played in torrential rain.

Stanford was eliminated from the bowl season weeks ago, but Cal (5-5) is one victory from its second consecutive berth with two games remaining. Considering the Bears finish at 13th-ranked SMU, their showdown Saturday is effectively a must-win affair.

It’s also crucial for coach Justin Wilcox after his team’s poor showing last week against Syracuse. Now in his eighth season, Wilcox’s program has stagnated. His contract runs through the 2027 season and includes a hefty buyout, and Cal isn’t exactly rolling in cash. But Wilcox needs a bowl berth to provide traction, which means he needs a victory Saturday.

Then again, Wilcox’s seat is ice cold compared to the pressure on USC coach Lincoln Riley, whose team was viewed as a playoff contender after beating LSU in the opener but is now in danger of missing the postseason altogether.

Like Cal, the Trojans (5-5) need one victory to clinch a bowl berth.

And like Cal, they face a daunting assignment in the finale.

If Riley loses at UCLA on Saturday and then to Notre Dame next weekend, calls for his termination will be loud and unrelenting (despite a contract buyout believed to exceed $50 million).

Meanwhile, the Bruins are playing with house money in coach DeShaun Foster’s first year. After losing five of the first six — the early-season schedule was beyond brutal — UCLA has won three of its past four.

If they handle USC and Fresno State, the Bruins (4-6) would become bowl eligible while severely undercutting USC’s outlook.

And that, of course, would make UCLA’s house money seem like chump change.

To the projections …

College Football Playoff
Team: Colorado (Big 12 champion)
Comment: Good chance the Buffaloes (8-2) reach the CFP with just one victory over a ranked opponent (whichever team they face in the Big 12 championship). They lost to Kansas State and do not play Arizona State, Brigham Young or Iowa State during the regular season which, crucially, isn’t their fault.

College Football Playoff
Team: Oregon (Big Ten runner-up)
Comment: Our forecast goes something like this: A rematch against Ohio State for the Big Ten title leads to the first loss for the Ducks (11-0), which leads to the No. 5 seed in the CFP, which leads to a home playoff game against No. 12 seed Boise State, which leads to a quarterfinal matchup against No. 4 seed Colorado, which leads to the semifinals — and a third date with Ohio State.

Alamo Bowl
Team: Washington State
Comment: With the loss at New Mexico derailing their playoff drive, the Cougars (8-2) now must beat Oregon State and Wyoming and hope that 1) Colorado reaches the CFP and 2) Arizona State loses twice. Otherwise, WSU could get bumped out of the Alamo.

Holiday Bowl
Team: Arizona State
Comment: It’s Nov. 19, the Sun Devils (8-2) are alive and well in the CFP race and Kenny Dillingham is making a great case for Big 12 Coach of the Year. What planet are we on?

Las Vegas Bowl
Team: UCLA
Comment: Our hunch is the USC-UCLA winner would be the preferred pick of Las Vegas Bowl officials over Washington due to the L.A. media market (for TV ratings) and the easy drive (for ticket and hotel sales).

Sun Bowl
Team: Washington
Comment: From the CFP championship game to the Sun Bowl in a single year. But hey, it beats being home for the holidays — not because Husky fans have their sights set on New Year’s in El Paso but because Washington (6-5) needs the extra practices to get started on next season.

Non-qualifier
Team: Arizona
Comment: Despite the signs of life shown last weekend, the Wildcats (4-6) face a steep climb to bowl eligibility: They must win at TCU and beat sizzling Arizona State at home in the finale. How do we see it playing out in order of likelihood? Lose both: 55 percent; split: 25 percent; win both: 20 percent.

Non-qualifier
Team: Cal
Comment: The loss to Syracuse was an all-systems failure by the Bears that emitted a vibe so unseemly, we wonder if they have anything left. (Either that, or they dig deep and blow the doors off Stanford.)

Non-qualifier
Team: Oregon State
Comment: The Beavers (4-6) are in free fall with five consecutive losses and an offensive offense. At least the Pac-12 secured its future in September. Otherwise, the Corvallis collapse might have carried long-lasting consequences.

Non-qualifier
Team: Stanford
Comment: If the Cardinal (3-7) beats Cal and San Jose State, which isn’t an unreasonable outcome, coach Troy Taylor should be rewarded with a contract extension. Not even prime-of-his-career Bill Walsh could have done better under the circumstances.

Non-qualifier
Team: USC
Comment: Our calculation is simple: USC won’t run the ball successfully against the Bruins, leading to poor quarterback play, spotty offense and a narrow, low-scoring loss; and next week, Notre Dame brings the hammer.

Non-qualifier
Team: Utah
Comment: Nothing better reflects this whacky season than Utah — Utah! — not qualifying for a bowl game. Excluding 2020, Kyle Whittingham’s crew has gone bowling for nine consecutive seasons. To be clear: The Utes (4-6) aren’t done just yet, but there’s a burning smell coming from the toaster in the corner of the kitchen.

*** Send suggestions, comments and tips (confidentiality guaranteed) to wilnerhotline@bayareanewsgroup.com or call 408-920-5716

*** Follow me on the social media platform X: @WilnerHotline