SoCal Port Volumes at Record Pace Driven by Economy and Uncertainties

Cargo volumes passing through Southern California’s twin ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach continued the strong pace seen for the past few months and set new records in October. Near-term both ports expect the strength to continue driven by the strong economy and uncertainties ranging from potential labor unrest on the U.S. East and Gulf Coasts and the prospects of increased tariffs under the Trump presidency.

The Port of Los Angeles reported today, November 20, that it had “robust” volumes in October with a 25 percent year-over-year increase and for the first time it had four consecutive months with volumes over 900,000 TEU. October was 11 percent ahead of the port’s five-year average and took it to over 8.5 million TEU in 10 months. Volumes at the Port of Los Angeles are up by 1.3 million TEU over 2023 and six percent ahead of the port’s five-year average.

The port’s Executive Director Gene Seroka points to rising retail sales, falling interest rates, and a strong overall economy as contributors to the strong volumes. He also confirmed, “some discretionary cargo is going through Los Angeles due to the ongoing labor issues in the East and Gulf Coast ports.” He expects this will continue until the labor issues are resolved.

The neighboring Port of Long Beach reported October was the strongest month in its 113-year history, driven by brisk demand for holiday goods and delayed containership arrivals at the end of September. Long Beach exceeded Los Angeles handling 9837,191 TEU.  Volumes were up nearly 31 percent from the same month last year and surpassing by eight percent the port’s previous all-time one-month record set just two months earlier in August 2024. October also marked the Port’s fifth consecutive monthly year-over-year cargo increase.

Both ports recorded strong increases for imports and exports. Los Angeles highlighted a 19 percent increase for exports in 2024 noting it was the biggest outbound gain in two decades.

“We anticipate a continued influx of cargo due to robust consumer demand, concerns about potential tariffs, and ongoing labor negotiations at ports on the East and Gulf coasts,” forecasted Port of Long Beach CEO Mario Cordero.

The Port of Los Angeles also remains optimistic for 2024 predicting that cargo volumes would continue at a “healthy pace.” Some of this they however expect is frontloading due to the labor issues and potential tariff increases under the new administration.

“These robust, sustained volumes will likely continue in the coming months with strong consumer spending, an early Lunar New Year, importer concerns about unresolved East Coast labor issues, and the possibility of new tariffs next year that could drive up shipping costs,” said Seroka.

Los Angeles is forecasting a November volume of 850,000 TEUs putting it on track to exceed 10 million TEWU for the year. It would only be the second time the port has ever reached those annual volumes and they expect January will also be strong.

Uncertainty however looms large for 2025. Based on performance during the previous Trump administration, Seroka said the new tariffs could decrease flows. The port experienced more erratic volumes as Trump previously imposed tariffs and this time the campaign promises called for a universal 10 percent tariff on all imports and 60 percent on China, which makes up nearly half the volumes moving through the SoCal ports.