Growing Trust deficit threatens Pak-China alliance
In a move that signals deepening fissures in Pakistan-China relations, Pakistan’s Intelligence Bureau (IB) has instructed its officers and field units to stop using WeChat and Huawei mobile phones for organizational communications, particularly regarding Chinese nationals.
This November 2024 directive marks a reversal from the bureau’s October mandate that had specifically required these Chinese platforms for sharing sensitive information about Chinese nationals in Pakistan. This technological trust deficit mirrors a broader pattern of growing concerns between the two nations, traditionally celebrated as “iron brothers.” The relationship, long portrayed as unshakeable, is showing signs of strain, particularly in matters of security and mutual confidence. The reversal in technology usage policies within Pakistan’s intelligence community suggests a level of wariness about Chinese digital infrastructure that was previously unthinkable in this partnership.
The mounting economic tensions reached a critical point with China’s Century Steel Pvt. Limited’s dramatic announcement on November 11, formally communicating its decision to withdraw from Pakistan to the Special Investment Facilitation Council (SIFC). The Chinese entity’s exit highlights the deepening investment challenges, citing 18 unresolved issues within the Rashakai Special Economic Zone (RSEZ) in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa as primary reasons for discontinuing operations. This withdrawal is particularly significant given the substantial financial commitment the company was prepared to make – an initial investment of US$ 82 million in the first phase, with plans for an additional US$ 200 million across two subsequent phases. The decision serves as a testament to the deteriorating investment climate and underscores the growing disillusionment among Chinese investors, who are increasingly viewing Pakistan as an unpredictable and high-risk destination for foreign direct investment.
This exit follows the broader trend of declining Chinese investments in Pakistan, further eroding the economic foundation of what was once considered an unbreakable strategic partnership.
Recent events have cast a harsh spotlight on the security challenges facing Chinese nationals in Pakistan. A devastating suicide attack near Karachi’s airport in October 2024 resulted in the death of two Chinese engineers and injured ten others, adding to a growing list of incidents targeting Chinese nationals.
The Balochistan Liberation Army’s claim of responsibility for this attack has intensified Beijing’s concerns about the safety of its citizens and investments in Pakistan. The security situation has deteriorated to such an extent that Chinese businesses operating in Pakistan are openly expressing their lack of confidence in local security measures. A Chinese businessman in Punjab’s frank admission that they would prefer Chinese security personnel over Pakistani soldiers represents an unprecedented break from the diplomatic niceties that typically characterize public discourse between the two nations. “We don’t trust that more Pakistani soldiers will keep us safe,” the businessman stated, adding that many Chinese nationals want to leave Pakistan due to security concerns.
The $62 billion China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), a flagship project of Chinese President Xi Jinping’s Belt and Road Initiative, has become a focal point of these security concerns.Despite Pakistan’s significant commitment of over 15,000 personnel across two special security divisions and additional provincial police units, these measures have failed to meet Chinese expectations. Ironically, China partially funds this protection through its defense ministry, yet continues to find it inadequate. Chinese companies have responded to these security gaps by developing their own solutions, turning to Chinese security engineers to handle incident management, conduct background checks, gather intelligence, and oversee local armed guards. This approach, while necessary from the Chinese perspective, underscores the deep mistrust in local security arrangements. The situation is further complicated by Pakistan’s prohibition on foreign armed security contractors, forcing Chinese companies to adopt a hybrid approach of stationing Chinese security officers while employing hundreds of local guards.
The repercussions of these security challenges are becoming increasingly evident in economic terms. Chinese investments in Pakistan have declined sharply, with numerous projects facing delays or cancellations due to instability. The Frontier Services Group’s 2023 annual report revealed that Chinese companies are actively encouraging their employees to leave Pakistan, citing safety concerns. This exodus of Chinese workers and capital represents a significant setback for Pakistan’s economic aspirations and the broader goals of the CPEC initiative. The paradox becomes even more apparent in Pakistan’s stance on Chinese security companies. While Pakistan has proven unable to provide adequate security guarantees, it remains resistant to allowing Chinese security companies to operate within its borders. Beijing’s attempts to negotiate permission for Chinese security firms to operate in Pakistan have been “explicitly rebuffed” multiple times, according to Chinese executives. This position, while defending Pakistan’s sovereignty, appears increasingly untenable given the mounting casualties and deteriorating security situation.
Chinese ambassador Jiang Zaidong’s description of the attacks as “unacceptable” and his warning that security concerns were becoming a “constraint to CPEC” represents an unusually direct public criticism. During Chinese Premier Li Qiang’s visit to Pakistan in October, China emphasized the “urgent need to adopt targeted security measures” in a joint statement, highlighting Beijing’s growing impatience with the security situation. The Intelligence Bureau’s recent directive regarding WeChat and Huawei devices adds another dimension to this complex relationship. The decision to move away from Chinese technology platforms for sensitive communications suggests growing concerns about potential vulnerabilities in Chinese technology infrastructure. This shift is particularly noteworthy given China’s historical role as Pakistan’s primary technology partner.
As an executive at a large Chinese security firm noted, “The government is failing to comprehensively solve this security problem.” This candid assessment encapsulates the current predicament: a relationship that was once characterized by unwavering trust and cooperation now finds itself grappling with fundamental issues of security and reliability. The challenge for both nations moving forward will be to address these growing concerns while maintaining their strategic partnership. The current state of Pakistan-China relations reveals a complex web of trust issues, security challenges, and technological concerns that lie beneath the surface of their publicly proclaimed friendship. As both countries navigate these challenges, the sustainability of their partnership may depend on their ability to bridge these growing gaps in trust and security cooperation.
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