UFC Macau predictions
Petr Yan just got back in the winning track, but a fellow former champion stands in the way of a return to the title picture.
In the main event of UFC Macau, Yan faces the streaking Deiveson Figueiredo. Much has happened since both men most recently competed in title fights, with Yan only recently snapping a three-fight skid and Figueiredo making a move to the bantamweight division that has paid off in spades.
Yan’s losing streak was a deceptive one. He failed to regain the bantamweight title from Aljamain Sterling in their rematch (after losing the title to Sterling via disqualification), then lost a narrow split decision in a thriller against Sean O’Malley, and then simply found himself in the way of future champion Merab Dvalishvili. He confirmed he still belongs among the elite with a vintage decision win over Song Yadong this past March.
That success directly led to this Figueiredo matchup as fans had been calling for the two to duel ever since Figueiredo joined the bantamweight division in December 2023. After losing the final fight of his epic tetralogy with Brandon Moreno, Figueiredo decided to freshen things up with a change in weight classes and he’s hit the ground running. Wins over former UFC champion Cody Garbrandt and longtime contenders Marlon Vera and Rob Font have Figueiredo in position to sneak into another title opportunity with a standout performance in Macau.
Elsewhere on the main card, flyweight knockout artist Wang Cong looks to mark herself as a future challenger when she takes on Gabriella Fernandes, and Volkan Oezdemir is tasked with halting Carlos Ulberg’s six-fight win streak.
What: UFC Macau
Where: Galaxy Arena in Macau, China
When: Saturday, Nov. 23. The seven-fight early preliminary card begins at 3 a.m. ET on ESPN+, followed by a six-fight main card that begins at 6 a.m. ET also on ESPN+.
(Numbers in parentheses indicate standing in the MMA Fighting Global Rankings)
Petr Yan (6) vs. Deiveson Figueiredo (7)
Petr Yan is a master of adaptation and he benefits most from this being a five-round fight. That’s not to take anything away from Deiveson Figueiredo, whose first and third fights were instant classics that went the distance, but few can hang with Yan once his mind starts making the necessary calculations to formulate doom for his opponents.
Not only is Yan one of the best boxers in MMA, he always seems to get stronger the longer the fight goes on. It doesn’t matter what style his opponent brings to the cage (unless we’re talking Merab Dvalishvili’s smothering bulldozer style), Yan eventually finds all the right angles to strike and make his opponents miserable. Once he gets those targeting lasers on lock, it’s a wrap.
Figueiredo is plenty dangerous in his own right. It hasn’t happened yet, but no one should be surprised if Figueiredo becomes the first fighter to put Yan away with strikes or force a tap. “Deus Da Guerra” is a constant threat to finish in a variety of ways and a hot start out of the gate could spell trouble for Yan. Keep in mind, Figueiredo has to know how close he is to a title shot, so he won’t be looking to point fight here. If he goes down, he’s going down swinging.
I expect this fight to play out like a typical Yan fight, especially with Figueirdo pushing the pace early. Yan will weather the storm before turning the tide late in the second and then putting on a striking masterclass for the final 15 minutes.
Pick: Yan
Yan Xiaonan (3) vs. Tabatha Ricci (12)
The pressure is on Yan Xiaonan to deliver as the highest-billed Chinese athlete on this card. She’ll have every opportunity to impress against Tabatha Ricci, an aggressive fighter light on finishing ability.
One reason Ricci has found herself on the right end of a few competitive decisions is her willingness to come forward and constantly close the space. Nobody is going to mistake her for prime Wanderlei Silva, but when the judges are looking for action, it’s usually Ricci providing it. As far as how effective her offense is, well, mileage may vary.
Yan is far more precise and I give her the edge in speed as well. The big thing to watch is how she deals with Ricci’s takedown attempts, because Yan has been foiled by wrestling before, including in her title fight with Zhang Weili.
Ricci presents a challenge, but not one Yan can’t overcome over three rounds.
Pick: Yan
Song Kenan vs. Muslim Salikhov
It’s difficult to know what to make of Muslim Salikhov these days. The 40-year-old Russian is as tricky as ever and his technique is on point, but his moments of explosiveness are few and far between. It’s entirely possible “King of Kung Fu” controls the range for three rounds and neutralizes Song Kenan.
That’s kind of a boring prediction, though. Song has shown real flashes throughout his career with a no-nonsense, infighting style, and the occasional highlight-reel knockout. He has to make this fight dirty if he’s to get one over on Salikhov, never an easy out.
It’s fair to say Salikhov is closing in on the end of his career and while Song is no spring chicken himself, he’s got more in the tank should he manage to lure Salikhov into a brawl. Volume will be key for Song if he hopes to secure the most notable win of his career. I see Song outlasting Salikhov in a workmanlike three-round contest, much to the crowd’s delight.
Pick: Song
Wang Cong vs. Gabriella Fernandes
The booking logic here is clear. Gabriella Fernandes fought with reckless abandon in her narrow decision win over Carli Judice this past June and the UFC is assuming she’ll do the same against Wang Cong, a fighter they’re eager to push.
It’s understandable. Wang has that perfect mixture of being a fresh face for UFC fans, but with the high-level experience—including a kickboxing win over Valentina Shevchenko—that could make her a title challenger overnight. She did what she was supposed to do in her UFC debut, scoring a quick knockout of Victoria Leonardo, and receives another stylistically favorable opponent Saturday.
Fernandes certainly knows how to pour on the pressure, she’s just not particularly effective when she does it. Her penchant for upright, lunging strikes all but guarantees Wang’s right hand will find a home on Fernandes’ chin. It won’t take too many of those to end the fight.
Pick: Wang
Volkan Oezdemir (11) vs. Carlos Ulberg (14)
Outside of the main event, Volkan Oezdemir vs. Carlos Ulberg is the fight I’m most intrigued by. And also kind of dreading?
Ulberg is making all the right moves on his way to the top and this is well-considered matchmaking, with Oezdemir being a one-time title challenger that would look good on Ulberg’s résumé if he can pass the test. Even in the wasteland that is the 205-pound division, a six-fight win streak is nothing to sneeze at, nor is putting Alonzo Menifield away in 12 seconds.
But Oezdemir is no stranger to drudgery and if he can drag Ulberg into deeper waters, he will. “No Time” has rediscovered his finishing touch, but he’ll have to be careful with the springy Ulberg. This clash of styles could go horribly wrong, with both fighters employing tentative and defensive game plans.
Let’s hope I’m the one that’s horribly wrong because I have a nagging feeling this goes to a forgettable decision, with Ulberg earning Oezdemir’s number and not much else.
Pick: Ulberg
Zhang Mingyang vs. Ozzy Diaz
Zhang Mingyang could be walking into a trap here.
At first glance, Ozzy Diaz seems ripe for the picking. The 34-year-old has a tendency to give up a lot of ground to his opponents, trusting his defense and durability to get him through the rough patches of a fight. If you’re Zhang’s team, that’s music to your ears, as they’ll undoubtedly be looking to secure a fast finish and a $50,000 bonus.
The thing about guys like Diaz is they never go away as easily as it looks like they should on paper. Diaz is well-rounded and the strength of the competition he’s faced is considerably stronger than that of Zhang. It might look dire for Diaz at first, but Zhang has a tendency to drop his hands when he’s on the offensive and that opens him up for an upset.
Zhang takes Round 1, with Diaz showing his resilience. When Zhang fails to put Diaz away in Round 2, Diaz fires up for a comeback, finishes Zhang with strikes, and puts himself in line for an extra check.
Pick: Diaz
Preliminaries
Baergeng Jieleyisi def. SuYoung You
DongHun Choi def. Kiru Sahota
Feng Xiaocan def. Shi Ming
Carlos Hernandez def. Nyamjargal Tumendemberel
Lone’er Kavanagh def. Jose Ochoa
Nikolas Motta def. Maheshate