‘Wicked’ Box Office Prediction: Can It Take Down ‘Gladiator II’?
Update 1: Heading into Friday, “Wicked” had already made $19.2 million in previews: $2.5 million from Monday showings, $5.7 million from Wednesday advances, and $11 million for Thursday screenings. Comparatively, “Gladiator II” made $6.5 million in Thursday previews. This is shaping up to be one of the biggest box office weekends of the 2024 calendar year.
What will be the winners and the losers this week at the U.S. box office? Universal Pictures’ “Wicked” and Paramount Pictures’ “Gladiator II” (affectionately known online by the combined name of “Glicked”) both open in theaters on Friday, as does Angel Studios’ “Bonhoeffer: Pastor. Spy. Assassin.” They’ll be facing off against the current top five money-makers: “Red One,” “Venom: The Last Dance,” “The Best Christmas Pageant Ever,” “Heretic,” and “The Wild Robot.”
Gold Derby predicts that “Wicked” will win the Nov. 22 – Nov. 24 weekend with more than $125 million domestically. “Gladiator II” is the runner-up choice of our odds-makers. Do you agree or disagree with those rankings? Make your predictions right now — it’s fun and easy! Join the box office discussion in our forums.
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NEW RELEASES
“Wicked” (dir. Jon M. Chu) is the long-awaited film adaptation of the popular Broadway stage musical. It stars Cynthia Erivo as Elphaba Thropp, aka the Wicked Witch of the West, and Ariana Grande as Galinda Upland, aka Glinda the Good Witch. Other cast members include Jonathan Bailey as Fiyero Tigelaar, Michelle Yeoh as Madame Morrible, Jeff Goldblum as the Wonderful Wizard of Oz, Ethan Slater as Boq Woodsman, Marissa Bode as Nessarose Thropp, and Peter Dinklage as the voice of Doctor Dillamond. It has a running time of two hours, 40 minutes, and is rated PG.
“Gladiator II” (dir. Ridley Scott) takes place 16 years after the death of Maximus in the original “Gladiator” (2000), which won five Oscars for Best Picture, Best Actor (Crowe), Best Costume Design, Best Sound, and Best Visual Effects. Paul Mescal now plays Maximus’ son Lucius, while Connie Nielsen reprises her role as Lucilla from the first film. New cast members to the franchise include Pedro Pascal as Marcus Acacius, Denzel Washington as Macrinus, Joseph Quinn as Emperor Geta, and Fred Hechinger as Emperor Caracalla. It has a running time of two hours, 28 minutes, and is rated R.
“Bonhoeffer: Pastor. Spy. Assassin.” (dir. Todd Komarnicki) stars Jonas Dassler as the titular Dietrich Bonhoeffer, a German theologian who stood up to the Nazis at the height of World War II in Berlin. Komarnicki has been attached to the drama thriller since 2018, and filming finally took place in early 2023. It has a running time of two hours, 12 minutes, and is rated PG-13.
BOX OFFICE PREDICTIONS
You can’t hardly turn on your TVs or use your devices this month without seeing some sort of advertisement for “Wicked.” Ticketing company Fandango even reported that pre-sales for “Wicked” are No. 2 for the entire 2024 calendar year, behind only “Deadpool & Wolverine.” That’s undoubtedly why so many of Gold Derby’s users are predicting that the fairy tale film will fly off with the first-place honor.
However, don’t count out “Gladiator II” just yet. Twenty-four years ago (yes, it’s been that long!), Scott’s original historical epic set the box office on fire by earning $185 million in the U.S. and $465 million worldwide. It ended up as the No. 4 film domestically in 2000, following “How the Grinch Stole Christmas,” “Cast Away,” and “Mission: Impossible II.” Do moviegoers still have a craving to see ancient Roman clashes in the year 2024? Stay tuned.
Here are Gold Derby’s current box office rankings for the top five:
1. “Wicked”
2. “Gladiator II”
3. “Red One”
4. “Venom: The Last Dance”
5. “Heretic”
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