Why mass deportations would cripple California’s economy

Mythology aside, nearly 2 million undocumented immigrants are the backbone of some industries, and pay billions in taxes for services they will never receive.

By Mark Kreidler, for Capital & Main

In the days following President-elect Donald Trump’s victory, I reached out to a longtime Northern California family farmer to gauge his level of concern.

Trump has, after all, already made full-throated declarations that his administration will conduct the largest deportation of undocumented residents in U.S. history. That should resonate in a place like California, with its estimated 1.8 million undocumented immigrants—and it certainly would shake up a state agriculture industry in which nearly half of all workers are undocumented.

But the farmer, who asked not to be identified to avoid political conflict with business partners, was unruffled. A self-described social moderate and fiscal conservative, he and his family have spent generations in the business. While his own seasonal employees are on work visas, his understanding of the industry’s historical reliance on undocumented workers runs deep, through direct experience, colleagues, and a seat on the board of an agriculture lending institution.

He knows the stakes. Even at a time when some farmers use more authorized workers than ever, the industry overall remains heavily reliant on undocumented immigrants.

“I suspect it’ll be like it always has been: If you’re undocumented but stay out of trouble, not much is going to happen,” he told me. “Dragging hard-working people out of here does not go over well.”

That is hardly a poetic response. It does, however, have the ring of truth.

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