Why the EU’s stance on Israel is starting to change

The EU has stood in solidarity with Israel since the start of the war with Hamas, and has been consistent in saying the country has the right to defend itself. But the EU has always said that this has to be done in line with international law, which Israel has been accused of breaching.

In July 2024 the International Court of Justice (ICJ) advised that Israel’s occupation of Palestinian territories was unlawful. Then, in October, Israel’s parliament voted to ban the UN’s Palestinian refugee agency (Unrwa) from operating in Israel – and therefore Gaza. This ruling will only mean further suffering for the Palestinian people.

One month later, on November 21, the International Criminal Court (ICC) decided to issue arrest warrants for Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his former defence minister Yoav Gallant, as well as Hamas military commander Mohammed Deif.

Netanyahu and Gallant are wanted for alleged crimes against humanity and war crimes committed during the war in Gaza. And Deif is wanted on the same charges for crimes committed both in Israel and Palestine from October 7 onwards.

Read more: ICC issues arrest warrant for Benjamin Netanyahu over alleged war crimes

More women and children have been killed in Gaza by the Israeli military since the start of the war than in any other conflict of an equivalent period over the past two decades. Israel’s actions in Gaza, the West Bank and now Lebanon are gradually causing some EU states to change their stance.

Shifting towards condemnation

Only five EU states – Belgium, Latvia, France, Estonia and Cyprus – were in favour of a resolution adopted by the UN general assembly in September that demanded Israel end “its unlawful presence” in the occupied territories of Palestine within 12 months. Bulgaria, Austria, Sweden, Italy and Germany abstained.

There has been a notable shift in the position of EU leaders since then. When Israeli forces fired on a UN peacekeeping position in Lebanon in October, Italy’s prime minister, Giorgia Meloni, denounced the incident as “unjustifiable”.

The EU’s foreign affairs chief, Josep Borrell, then condemned the Israeli attacks and reiterated calls for sanctions against those responsible for Israeli settlers in the West Bank, including two members of Netanyahu’s government, finance minister Bezalel Smotrich and security minister Itamar Ben-Gvir.

The UK, while not an EU state, is also considering sanctions on these two individuals over what Prime Minister Keir Starmer called “obviously abhorrent comments” they made about Palestinians in August. Smotrich said starving civilians in Gaza might be justified and Ben Gvir called perpetrators of settler violence in the West Bank “heroes”.

Some European states such as France, Spain, Italy, Belgium and the UK have reduced arms sales to Israel. But despite these policies, there is no EU arms ban on Israel. In fact, Germany provides one-third of Israel’s arms, and has even increased these exports in the second half of 2024.

Yet in July 2024, the court said that states are “under an obligation not to render aid or assistance in maintaining the situation created by Israel’s illegal presence in the Occupied Palestinian Territory”. This should arguably not only involve an EU ban on arms sales to Israel, but also a suspension of the EU’s trade agreement with Israel. Ireland and Spain have been pushing for the latter, but no decision has yet been taken.

The EU has the economic clout to hurt Israel’s economy. While Israel is only the EU’s 25th largest trading partner, the EU is Israel’s largest, and accounts for almost one-third of its trade in goods.

But EU sanctions look a way off at present. Austria, Hungary, Germany and the Czech Republic are Israel’s closest allies in the EU, and it is very unlikely that they would vote in favour of sanctions.

That said, the recent arrest warrants are likely to have a powerful indirect effect. In May 2024, UN experts said that “the transfer of weapons and ammunition to Israel may constitute serious violations of human rights and international humanitarian laws and risk state complicity in international crimes”. So, EU states that continue to provide arms to Israel are arguably complicit in war crimes and crimes against humanity.

And even if the EU government itself does not ban arms sales, citizens can ask their own courts to enforce such a ban. This type of case is already occuring in the Netherlands.

The issue of arrest warrants for Netanyahu and Gallant also make it possible for the EU to establish a travel ban and impose financial sanctions against them. All EU member states are party to the ICC, and support the court’s work. On November 21, Borrell said the ICC warrants are “not political and the court decision should be respected and implemented”.

EU states are firmly in agreement that only a two-state solution will increase the chances of security and peace in the region. To make this a realistic prospect, more EU countries need to recognise the state of Palestine.

In the 1980s, Bulgaria, Cyprus, Hungary, Poland, Romania and the Czech Republic all recognised Palestinian statehood. Sweden did in 2014, and Ireland, Spain and non-EU member Norway followed in 2024.

The EU’s responsibility for discussing these policies is all the more salient given Donald Trump’s return to the White House. His ambassador to Israel, Mike Huckabee, has previously said that Israel has a rightful claim to the West Bank.

Many Palestinians in the West Bank believe the US election result will “make Israel even stronger”, with the prospect of a Palestinian state soon to be “off the table”.

Catherine Gegout does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.