How much Ohioans are expected to spend this holiday season

COLUMBUS, Ohio (WCMH) – Ohioans are expected to spend more this holiday season compared with last year, according to a new report.

A Thursday analysis issued by the Ohio Council of Retail Merchants anticipates retail holiday spending in the state will reach $30.4 billion this year, a 1.1% increase over 2023. The increase is lower than what is expected nationally, with the National Retail Federation predicting an increase in sales of between 2.5% and 3.5%. 

Retailers highly anticipate the holidays to generate sufficient sales for the year, with Black Friday and Cyber Monday historically signaling the beginning of the holiday spending season. While the holidays provide a boost in sales across the country, the size of that increase is largely influenced by how confident consumers feel about the economy, according to the report. 

The state’s three largest metropolitan areas – Columbus, Cincinnati and Cleveland – are expected to account for over half of Ohio’s overall sales, at 55.6%. 

Nine Ohio cities included in the report are all expected to see a boost in holiday sales compared to last year, with Columbus expecting a 5.3% jump – the second-highest increase in the analysis. The metropolitan area that will see the largest increase compared to last year is Mansfield at 7.3%. Toledo is expected to see the smallest increase at 0.2%. 

"This 12th consecutive positive forecast reflects Ohioans' growing confidence in the economy," said Gordon Gough, president and CEO of the Ohio Council of Retail Merchants. "As memories of COVID fade, more Ohioans adjust to and benefit from a steady economic recovery.”

Consumer confidence, or how consumers feel about the current and future economy, has partially recovered since the COVID-19 pandemic, but remains below a peak experienced in February 2020, according to the council. 

Ohio’s labor market has also improved since 2020, with employment 6.8% higher in 2023 than pre-pandemic levels in 2020. Additionally, wages and salaries in Ohio have increased by approximately 20% between 2020 and 2023, according to the report. 

Full-year relevant retail sales in Ohio grew steadily in recent years, but have experienced smaller year-over-year gains since the first half of 2022, the council claims. 

The Ohio Council of Retail Merchants partnered with the University of Cincinnati Economics Center to develop the report's projections, using revenue data from the Ohio Department of Taxation for each of Ohio's 88 counties spanning from July 2005 to May 2024.

The council, founded in 1922, represents more than 7,500 retailers, wholesalers and distributors across Ohio.