Freezing temperatures in Green Bay will again be Tua Tagovailoa, Dolphins kryptonite vs. Packers

The Miami Dolphins are riding a three-game winning streak into Week 13, doing that thing they often do when they catch fire midseason just to stumble down the stretch when the temperatures drop.

The Dolphins are 0-7 in games started by Tua Tagovailoa when the temperature is 40 degrees or colder, according to The Palm Beach Post’s Joe Schad, failing to get it done away from the comfortable climates of Miami.

That’s bad news when it comes to Thursday’s game against the Green Bay Packers. The temperature at kickoff is expected to be 27 degrees with a real feel of 12 degrees, according to AccuWeather. The Packers are favored by 3.5 points, so the Dolphins can potentially cover the spread for a fourth straight game, but it’s hard to imagine they win outright given their track record in cold weather.

This is the fourth straight year the Dolphins have had a winning streak of at least three games near the Thanksgiving portion of the schedule — that includes two streaks of at least five wins. However, they’re under .500 after Thanksgiving in that span — including 2-6 on the road and 0-2 in the playoffs.

That record improves to 4-4 ATS, including 1-1 ATS in the playoffs, so it’s not inconceivable they keep the game tight. Especially in a short week, and with how good Miami’s defense has been the last three games, holding opponents to an average of 16 points per game.

But I wouldn’t be in a rush to hammer the Dolphins’ moneyline. The Packers aren’t too shabby themselves, sporting an 8-3 record with just one loss in their last seven games. Miami has a lot to prove before ever being trusted to win a game in the cold at Lambeau Field against a team that good.