Canadian Home Sales See Surprise Jump in October: CREA

Home sales activity recorded over Canadian MLS Systems increased 7.7 per cent on a month-over-month basis in October 2024, reaching its highest level since April 2022, according to CREA.

“The jump in home sales last month was definitely an October surprise, although with the big interest rate cut of 50 basis points announced during the last week of the month, the increase was more likely related to the surge in new listings we saw in September,” said Shaun Cathcart, CREA’s senior economist. “There probably won’t be another rush of new supply like that until next spring, and at that point, mortgage rates should be close to their expected lows, as well. With that in mind, you can think of the October numbers as a sort of preview for what we might expect to see next year.”

CREA noted that rising home sales activity was broad based, with the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) and British Columbia’s Lower Mainland recording double-digit increases in October.

New listings posted a 3.5 per cent month-over-month decline in the month of October, however, that followed behind a 4.8 per cent jump in September, so new supply remains at some of the highest levels since mid-2022. The national pullback in October was led by a drop in new supply in the GTA.

With sales rising in October and new listings falling, the national sales-to-new listings ratio tightened to 58 per cent, up from 52 per cent in September.

CREA noted that the long-term average for the national sales-to-new listings ratio is 55 per cent, with a sales-to-new listings ratio between 45 per cent and 65 per cent consistent with balanced housing market conditions.

“October’s strong sales numbers across Canada suggest buyers have been in the market since rates began to fall in early summer, but they were waiting for the right property to come up for sale, which didn’t happen in a big way until September,” said James Mabey, CREA chair. “The extent to which that will be able to continue between now and next spring will depend on the number of listings coming onto the market. Whether you’re looking to sell now that buyers are back, or looking to make a purchase while you have a wider selection, the first step is always to contact a REALTOR^® in your area.”

The National Composite MLS Home Price Index (HPI) decreased 0.1 per cent from September to October; however, prices at the national level have remained mostly flat since the beginning of 2024.

There were 174,458 properties listed for sale on all Canadian MLS Systems at the end of October 2024, up 11.4 per cent from a year before but still below historical averages for that time of the year.

There were 3.7 months of inventory on a national basis at the end of October, according to CREA, down from 4.1 months at the end of September and the lowest level in more than a year. The long-term average is 5.1 months of inventory, with a seller’s market being below about 3.6 months and a buyer’s market being above 6.5 months.

The non-seasonally adjusted National Composite MLS HPI stood 2.7 per cent below October 2023, the smallest decline since May.

CREA noted that its likely negative year-over-year comparisons will continue to shrink given the weakness in prices seen towards the end of 2023.

The actual national average home price was $696,166 in October 2024, up 6 per cent from October 2023.