Why are Black Friday deals appearing earlier this year?

Black Friday, the biggest shopping day of the year, and what’s thought of as the start of the holiday shopping season, comes at the end of this week. The National Retail Federation expects consumers to set records this year, with more than 183 million people planning to shop between Black Friday and Cyber Monday. And by the end of the season, consumers are expected to spend $902 per person on gifts, food and decorations — the highest spending on record.

Marshal Cohen has been going out on Black Friday every year for the last couple decades. It’s his job as chief retail advisor at Circana.

“I look at the parking lot, I look at how crowded the mall is, I look at how many long the register lines are, I look at the prices of the items and make comparisons to years past,” he said.

This year, Cohen might do a little shopping himself. He needs a new laptop.

And he’s not alone. Cohen says self-gifting makes up about a quarter of holiday spending. And with this fall being unusually warm, there might be extra demand. 

“Consumers, well, they haven’t bought a lot of sweaters, they haven’t bought a lot of cold weather boots, they haven’t bought a lot of product that they would normally have bought already,” he said.

Cohen said retailers are trying to capitalize on that by setting the stage for impulse shopping with more doorbuster deals than they have in recent years.

But just because people are willing to spend doesn’t mean they aren’t being cautious. Lupine Skelly, retail research leader at Deloitte, said people are more brand-agnostic this year. 

“And we’re just seeing this value-seeking behavior across income groups,” she said.

It’s a reason why retailers started Black Friday deals as early as Halloween, hoping it’ll lead to more shopping. Skelly said it’s sort of unclear if that’s worked. 

“One of the other behaviors that we’re seeing is people putting items in their carts and waiting for the discount, right? ‘Oh, I could pull the trigger now, but let’s just wait till Friday and see if it’s any better,'” she said.

Skelly said traditionally, people spend more than half of their holiday budgets during the weeks of Black Friday and Cyber Monday.

Still, Kristin Diehl, a marketing professor at University of Southern California’s Marshall School of Business, said pre-Thanksgiving Black Friday sales aren’t just about capturing money. They’re about capturing shoppers’ minds. 

“It starts getting this idea in my head of Christmas presents or self gifts. I mean, you need people to first have interest and desire before they actually pull the plug,” she said.

Diehl? She’s already made her self gift list. It includes new clothes.