Presto’s Picks: Leftovers include Virginia-Virginia Tech for a bowl bid, while the Big 12 devours itself
Here’s hoping everyone has a Happy Thanksgiving! This weekend’s menu of games includes Virginia and Virginia Tech playing for December; Navy looking for momentum heading into their off week before facing Army; plus Maryland and James Madison attempting to play spoiler.
Like well-heated Thanksgiving leftovers the weekend after the holiday, don’t discount the upset. Because nothing’s worse in college football than having bowl, conference or playoff plans ruined with a loss on the final weekend of the season.
Nationally, one is trying to wrap one’s head around the Big 12. Texas and Oklahoma bolting for the SEC certainly changed the landscape: instead of schools chasing the Longhorns and Sooners, they’ve mostly chased their own tails this fall.
Nine of the sixteen schools in the revamped conference are 6-2 or 5-3, and still technically in contention for the championship game. And, just like “nobody can control one’s destiny” (that’s why it’s called destiny), nobody in the Big 12 controls their own path to the title due to unbalanced schedules and tiebreakers.
Brace yourselves for one bumpy ride that begins at noon on Friday and ends around 1:30 a.m. Sunday.
Friday’s game
Navy (7-3, 5-2 AAC) at East Carolina (7-4, 5-2), noon, ESPN
Having trouble getting up for a matinee the day after Thanksgiving? At least you’re not Boise State where the Broncos will be kicking off with Oregon State at 10 a.m. local time. The Mids have won two straight over the Pirates and four of five in the series. However, ECU has found itself averaging 46 points while winning four straight since firing head coach Mike Houston.
Michigan State transfer quarterback Katin Houser has been a big part of the resurgence, throwing for 1,224 yards and 13 touchdowns in that stretch. Navy QB Blake Horvath was enjoying a storybook season during the team’s 6-0 start, but has been limited by injury as of late. We’ve seen what this offense can (or can’t) do with a hobbled Horvath after going 1-11 on third down against Tulane in the home finale.
Presto’s Pick: Midshipmen sink in a 35-17 loss.
Saturday’s games
Richmond (10-2) vs Lehigh (8-3), FCS First Round, 2 p.m., ESPN+
Football’s Championship Subdivision kicks off its playoffs this weekend? I must have missed the weekly “Rankings Update Show” on ESPN8. The Spiders reached the postseason for a third straight November thanks to a strong running game behind Zach Palmer-Smith’s 1,275 yards (295 in the last two games), plus a defense that allowed the fewest points in the CAA (Jeremiah Grant’s 12.5 sacks led the conference).
The Mountain Hawks are making their first playoff appearance since 2017 and haven’t won a tournament game since 2011.
Presto’s Pick: Spiders advance with a 31-10 victory.
Maryland (4-7, 1-7 Big Ten) at No. 4 Penn State (10-1, 7-1), 3:30 p.m., BTN
Far from being resigned to playing out the string, Coach Mike Locksley and company are embracing the opportunity to play spoiler and “finish the right way.” They’ll have to start by stopping the run one week after coughing up 268 yards on the ground to Iowa, as the Nittany Lions rank right behind the Hawkeyes in the conference, rushing the ball thanks to a running back rotation of Kaytron Allen (664 yards rushing) and Nicholas Singleton (646 on 6.0 yards per carry).
And if Penn State does pass, Drew Allar (72% completion rate, 9.6 yards per attempt, and a 17-5 TD/INT ratio) is the last thing a secondary that ranks 18th in sacks and 17th in stopping the pass wants to see.
Offensively, Tai Felton is 143 yards away from the single season receiving yards record (set by Marcus Badgett in 1992). But will Billy Edwards Jr. be healthy enough to heave him the ball?
The Nittany Lions have won eight of ten since the two schools became conference foes, but both of Maryland’s wins have come in State College, Pennsylvania.
Presto’s Pick: Terrapins tumble, 44-16.
James Madison (8-3, 4-3 Sun Belt) vs Marshall (8-3, 6-1), 8 p.m., ESPNU
JMU is reduced to playing the spoiler in the East Division with a win over the Thundering Herd. Plus, a Georgia Southern victory over App State sends the Eagles to the championship game. This matchup feels built for late-November: Marshall leads the conference in rushing while the Dukes are tops in stopping the run.
JMU also leads the Sun Belt in scoring and total defense, as well as sacks and third-down defense. They’re also unbeaten at home this season.
Presto’s Pick: Dukes deliver one more time at Bridgeforth Stadium in a 23-17 win.
Virginia (5-6, 3-4 ACC) at Virginia Tech (5-6, 3-4), 8 p.m., ACCN
Break out the serious case of Déjà vu, as the Hokies need to win the Commonwealth Cup to secure bowl eligibility for the sixth time in thirteen seasons (including last November). The Cavaliers can also qualify for a bowl with a win, but their memories hold multiple losses in Blacksburg (2006, 08, and 14) with the season on the line.
UVa’s most recent win at Lane Stadium took place in 1998 (that’s pre-ACC and pre-Michael Vick in the Hokies history), and they’ve lost 18 of 19 to their in-state (or in-Commonwealth) foes as conference opponents.
The Cavaliers’ issues this fall have hinged on their pass rush and pass protection, or more accurately the lack of both: the offense has allowed the most sacks in the ACC, while the defense has posted the fewest sacks in the conference. The Hokies, when this year ends, will have plenty of time to dissect the what-ifs, as five of their six losses have come by one possession (the other’s a 10-point defeat).
Kippy & Buffy know that possession may be nine-tenths of the law, but a good wine enjoyed at a tailgate is shared forever. And right now their best memory of the final weekend of November remains 2019 when the Cavaliers last beat the Hokies. So this weekend they’re pouring a bottle of
2019 Château O’Brien Padlock Red. This blend of cabernet franc, petit verdot and cabernet sauvignon might just rekindle the vibe that was the Coastal Division championship.
“Medium-bodied wine with complex aromas of plum and fig, a velvety soft texture, and remarkable fruit flavor,” the winery website reads. “This wine reveals both distinctive elegance and depth of our terroir.”
Presto’s Pick: Lack of Cavaliers offensive line depth is revealed as the Hokies win with distinctive elegance in a 24-13 win.
Last Week: 7-1
Overall: 74-35