The Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire is a small step in a crisis that is far from over
President Joe Biden and his top negotiator, Amos Hochstein, deserve considerable credit for bringing about a ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah. The terror group had no reason to launch a new conflict with Israel on Oct. 8, 2023, but clearly did so at Tehran’s behest.
Indeed, when the Hamas leadership initially approached the late Hassan Nasrallah in an effort to get Hezbollah to agree to a coordinated attack on Israel, the Hezbollah leader demurred.
When Nasrallah subsequently authorized the launching hundreds of missiles into Israel, thereby driving out some 70,000 Israelis residing near the Lebanese border, Israel retaliated with such ferocity that Hezbollah lost much of its fighting power. It lost both its longtime leader and his newly named successor, at least a third of its missile launchers, much of its infrastructure and many of the tunnels it had constructed in anticipation of an expanded attack on northern Israel.
Unsurprisingly, Hezbollah was suddenly prepared to agree to a 60-day truce. In announcing the ceasefire, Biden said that both sides “have accepted the United States’ proposal to end the devastating conflict between Israel and Hezbollah.” He added that the ceasefire “is designed to be a permanent cessation of hostilities.”
But Hezbollah has said little other than that it has accepted the ceasefire. It has yet to make any long-term commitment. Indeed, shortly after Biden’s announcement, the terrorist group was still sending vehicles into the zone below the Litani River, to which, under the terms of the agreement, it is meant to withdraw. Additionally, according to Lebanese media, civilians have begun to return to their homes in southern Lebanon, which would be in violation of the agreement that they not do so until all Israeli troops have left the country.
Israel likewise has made no longer-term commitments. On the contrary, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu emphasized his country’s freedom of military action — which Biden has underscored — if Hezbollah violates the ceasefire. Netanyahu stressed in his own announcement of the agreement that it did not prevent Israel from relaunching its offensive after the 60-day term expired. As he put it, “The length of the ceasefire depends on what happens in Lebanon. … The war will not end until we realize all its goals, including the return of the residents of the north safely home.”
Netanyahu may also be betting that, should Israel relaunch its war against Hezbollah, it will not face any opposition in Washington. After all, when the 60-day truce comes to an end, Donald Trump, not Biden, will be president of the United States. And Netanyahu is widely believed to expect even more support from the new president than he has received from the current White House resident.
Netanyahu pointed out in his statement that the Gaza War continued, and indeed widened, after the expiration of the seven-day ceasefire in November 2023 that included the release of 81 Israeli hostages and 240 Palestinian prisoners. His remarks about Gaza stood in marked contrast to Biden’s expressed desire to bring about an end to the Gaza War.
In fact, there is little prospect that the Gaza conflict will end any time soon. Hamas has called for a ceasefire, as it has before, but without reference to the release of Israeli hostages and with a demand that all Israeli forces leave the embattled and devastated strip. There is no chance that Israel will accept these conditions now, not only because it previously rejected them, but because the Lebanon truce enables Netanyahu to underscore that he is “committed to completing the annihilation of Hamas.”
Netanyahu has every reason to maintain that commitment. To begin with, there have been numerous reports that he has essentially written off the remaining 101 Israeli hostages held in Gaza. If there is any truth to these reports, there is nothing to hold him back from seeking to “annihilate” Hamas.
In addition, he must placate his right-wing partners in the government, who want to press on with the war even if it means the ethnic cleansing of northern Gaza. National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir, the most extreme member of the coalition government, bitterly opposed the Lebanon ceasefire agreement and was the only member of the security cabinet to vote against it. Netanyahu cannot afford to alienate Ben Gvir to the point that the extremist minister pulls his Otzma Yehudit party out of the government, which could prompt its collapse.
Netanyahu continues to face charges of bribery, fraud and breach of trust — he is scheduled to testify in court on Dec. 10 — and faces jail time if convicted unless he can retain his premiership; that would be problematic without the support of Ben Gvir and his party.
Finally, Netanyahu has emphasized that his primary concern remains Iran. He has now acknowledged that Israel’s Oct. 26 strike on Iranian facilities included “a significant component of their nuclear program,” what previously had been seen as a major red line for the Tehran regime. While Biden still hopes for an understanding with Iran, and even Trump may do so given Elon Musk’s mid-November meeting with Iran’s ambassador to the U.N., Netanyahu is of no such mind. He still wants to go after what he calls “the head of the octopus” and remains “determined to do anything needed to prevent Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon.”
Biden and his team deserve credit for the truce they have negotiated between Israel and Hezbollah. But a truce is just that and nothing more.
The Lebanon agreement is certainly a step toward resolving the entire Middle East crisis, as the president asserts. But it is only a small step that is far too easily reversible. The crisis is far from over.
Dov S. Zakheim is a senior adviser at the Center for Strategic and International Studies and vice chairman of the board for the Foreign Policy Research Institute. He was undersecretary of Defense (comptroller) and chief financial officer for the Department of Defense from 2001 to 2004 and a deputy undersecretary of Defense from 1985 to 1987.