College football Week 14 picks: Notre Dame-USC is on a long list of playoff-related biggies
One team is trying to win a ninth regular-season game — for the first time since 2007 — and unlock the door to the Citrus Bowl in Orlando, Florida, on New Year’s Day.
The other is trying to get to 5-7, grab hold of any reason to celebrate and maybe, just maybe, sneak into the postseason picture if there end up being more bowl slots than bowl-eligible teams around college football. It has happened before and (almost certainly won’t but) could again, as the glut of bowls has never been sillier given the expansion of the College Football Playoff to 12 teams has rendered everything else a sideshow.
That’s about as hard as one can sell a matchup like No. 23 Illinois (-7½) at Northwestern (11 a.m., BTN) heading into a Saturday with playoff implications galore. This game — at Wrigley Field, a fun wrinkle — offers zero in that department.
Let’s get to the point quickly and then move on to a fat batch of games whose results will drive the playoff conversation for days.
The Wildcats have won seven of the last nine in the series, though the Illini won — by a lot — in 2021 and 2022. The Illini clearly are the better team, but one never knows when the Cats who won 37-10 at Maryland might show up. If the Cats start fast, they’ll have a shot at an upset. But I’m going with the Illini, 27-17.
OTHER WEEK 14 PICKS
All games are Saturday.
Michigan (+20) at No. 2 Ohio State (11 a.m., Fox 32): No. 1 Oregon is locked into the Big Ten championship game. The Buckeyes will join the Ducks as long as they end a three-game losing streak to the Wolverines, which seems as sure a thing as Woody Hayes’ old barber grabbing the No. 2 clippers for the sides and back. OSU, 38-10.
No. 8 Tennessee (-10½) at Vanderbilt (11 a.m., ABC 7): Vandy has beaten Alabama, pushed Texas to the brink in a three-point loss, taken Missouri to double overtime, won at both Kentucky and Auburn. Does that sound like a pushover to you? Goodness, how the bowl-bound Commodores would love to bump Tennessee from the playoff scene. Vols survive in a one-score game, though, and make the final 12.
Maryland (+24½) at No. 4 Penn State (2:30 p.m., BTN): If crazy happens and Ohio State loses to Michigan, the Nittany Lions can get into the Big Ten title game with a win. Worst-case scenario: The Nits get upset by the Terrapins and find themselves perilously on the playoff bubble. Nits, 35-14.
No. 5 Notre Dame (-7½) at USC (2:30 p.m., CBS 2, 780-AM): These Trojans have disappointed on the whole, but they beat LSU, took Penn State to overtime and have won three of their last four games. Can Notre Dame — which will tumble out of the playoff with a loss — dominate them physically on the line of scrimmage? That’s what this one boils down to. Irish, 27-17.
No. 6 Miami (-10½) at Syracuse (2:30 p.m., ESPN): SMU is in the ACC title game. Miami will be the opponent with one more win; if it loses, Clemson steps in. All of this continues to fall on the shoulders of Hurricanes quarterback Cam Ward, who’s still alive for my first-place Heisman Trophy vote. Canes, 34-30.
Auburn (+11½) at No. 13 Alabama (2:30 p.m., ABC 7): It’s still a head-spinner that Alabama — coming off a pathetic 24-3 loss at Oklahoma — could miss a 12-team playoff, but it will without some help from others. The Iron Bowl hasn’t done Auburn’s way in Tuscaloosa since 2010, when Cam Newton was at his unstoppable best. Roll Tide, 24-13.
No. 16 Arizona State (-9) at Arizona (2:30 p.m., Fox 32): The Sun Devils get into the Big 12 title game with a win, meaning the door to an automatic first-round playoff bye is cracked open. The Wildcats have been duds, but the Territorial Cup demands they take their best shot — and if they do, there’s upset potential here. Time to spoil ASU's dream, 38-35.
Purdue (+29) at No. 10 Indiana (6 p.m., FS1): Everyone can just stop ripping on the Hoosiers’ schedule, OK? Or don’t stop. Either way, they’re getting into the playoff as long as they take back the Old Oaken Bucket from the worst-in-the-Big Ten Boilermakers. IU ends a three-game losing streak in the series, 41-14.
No. 3 Texas (-5½) at No. 20 Texas A&M (6:30 p.m., ABC 7): Even though the Longhorns’ 10-1 record looks a lot snazzier than the Aggies’ 8-3 mark, this renewal of a great old rivalry comes with a spot in the SEC title game against Georgia at stake. Unlike the Aggies, the Longhorns are in the playoff either way. Texas, 26-20 in overtime.
No. 24 Kansas State (+2½) at No. 18 Iowa State (6:30 p.m., Fox 32): Like Arizona State, ISU makes the Big 12 title game with a victory. Winning both this game and that one is the only way into the playoff dance. ISU, 24-17.
Houston (+13) at No. 19 BYU (9:15 p.m., ESPN): BYU enters Saturday alive for a Big 12 title shot, too, and can get there with an Arizona State loss and a win against the Cougars. Are you thinking what we’re thinking? This game is Cougars vs. Cougars. The BYU ones, 34-17.
Last week: 5-1 straight-up, 3-3 against the spread.
Season to date: 57-24 straight-up, 38-42-1 against the spread.