Fighting Intensifies in Syria; Situation is Fluid, Chaotic
ANALYSIS based on multiple reports.
The situation in Syria is fluid, and should not give rise to predictions nor conclusions yet, a security source told Solder of Fortune. “It’s fluid and chaotic, and it’s early days,” the London-based source said on Saturday. “Watch closely, but hold back on making forecasts.”
Events continue to unfold at a rapid pace. Multiple sources are offering updates, with few journalists delivering first hand reports from the ground.
More than 300 people, including at least 20 civilians, have been killed since fighting began on Wednesday, according to the UK-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights.
The rapid collapse of Syrian government forces inside and around the country’s second-largest city, Aleppo, has caught many observers by surprise and is causing a domino effect on many parts of the country, VOA reported on Saturday.
Amateur video showed rebel fighters in control of Aleppo’s central Saadallah Jabari Square, in addition to Aleppo University and the city’s provincial government headquarters, VOA reported.
Saudi-owned Al Arabiya TV reported that Syrian government forces also withdrew from Aleppo’s civilian and military airports. Abu Dhabi-based Sky News Arabia showed amateur video of rebels apparently in control of the military airport.
Syrian rebel fighters have taken control of a majority of Aleppo, Syria’s largest city, for the first time since 2016, a war monitor said Saturday, as clashes continued with government forces and Russian warplanes launched airstrikes on parts of the city.
The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, which says it has researchers across the war-torn country, reported Saturday that Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), a jihadist alliance led by al-Qaida’s former Syria branch, and allied factions seized control of most of the city, government centers, and prisons.
READ MORE about recent military action in Syria.
“The governor of Aleppo and the leadership of police and security branches withdrew from the center of the city, and regime forces and reinforcement escaped from the city to Al-Safirah area,” the Observatory added.
A witness in Aleppo, who did not want to be named for security reasons, told VOA that rebel forces advanced Friday in parts of the city after clashes with forces loyal to Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s government.
Syrian authorities closed Aleppo airport and all roads leading into the city on Saturday, a security source in London told Soldier of Fortune.
It was the first major attack on Aleppo since 2016, when Syrian government forces, supported by Iranian-backed militias and the Russian air force, pushed out rebel factions from the eastern parts of the city during the height of Syria’s civil war.
The fighting has forced thousands of residents to flee war-torn areas, the source told Soldier of Fortune on Saturday. The source is not authorized to communicate with the media, and spoke on the condition of anonymity.
Friday’s advance in Aleppo is part of a major offensive launched by Syrian rebels and their allies that began Wednesday. Rebel forces said they had taken control of dozens of towns and villages in the provinces of Aleppo and Idlib in the past two days.
The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said Friday that 277 people have been killed in clashes since Wednesday, most of them rebels and Syrian soldiers.
The Syrian military said in a statement Friday that “its armed forces operating on frontlines in the countryside of Aleppo and Idlib continue to counter the major attack carried out by the terrorist organizations,” referring to rebel forces.
Experts have linked the latest developments in Aleppo to shifting dynamics elsewhere in the Middle East.
“Since 2016, those defending Aleppo were Iran and Hezbollah, but both are now in vastly different circumstances,” said Ahmed Rahal, a former Syrian military general who defected from the army in 2012. He now works as a military analyst in Istanbul.
“Iran is currently preoccupied with its conflict with Israel, and Hezbollah has nearly been decimated [by Israel],” he told VOA. “The regime is unable to defend Aleppo.”
The terror group no longer can be counted upon to pick up the fight, a U.S.-based security source told Soldier of Fortune.
“Hezbollah has been pushed to the wall,” the source said.
Aleppo is “key to watch” in order to see how the situation in Syria will unfold, the London source said.
“It’s early days,” the source said. “Make no predictions, and draw no conclusions. A lot can happen.”
– Based on reports from multiple sources, including Sirwan Kajjo and Edward Yeranian of VOA; and from security sources in London and the U.S.