The Royals are becoming a perennial juggernaut
It’s still early, but the Royals have already signaled an aggressive posture for their second consecutive offseason.
Thanksgiving may be in the past, but I’m thankful the Royals didn’t wait for Black Friday to begin their holiday shopping spree.
One year removed from being the second-biggest spenders of the offseason, the Royals are well on their way to being in the top third of MLB off-season spending, again. They’ve already locked up superstar Bobby Witt Jr, so I wouldn’t expect them to be quite as high as last year*, but they’re currently third in offseason spending with plenty of signals that they intend to keep going.
*It’s probably too early, but if they decide to get ahead of things and sign ace Cole Ragans to his own massive extension, they could easily end up very near the top again.
The Royals have already made the first big trade of the offseason - sending Brady Singer to Cincinnati for Jonathan India and Joey Wiemer. They’ve also done one of the largest outlays for a pitcher, signing Michael Wacha to a new three-year deal to replace the year he would have opted out from in his previous contract.
The Dodgers, naturally, are throwing a ton of money around. But only the Angels have also outspent KC. The Angels also performed the only other trade of note so far this offseason when they sent Griffin Canning to Atlanta for Jorge Soler. Canning was immediately cut loose, highlighting just what kind of deal qualifies for second biggest, right now.
There are two things that stand out about the Royals’ offseason so far. First, they’re not done. Last offseason General Manager J.J. Picollo announced the team would be seeking two starters, some bullpen help, and an outfield bat. That offseason started more slowly, but they got all of those things before they were done. This offseason Picollo indicated the team would be seeking to retain Wacha before adding at least two bats, one outfielder, and recently added that they’d be seeking some starting pitching depth with Brady Singer heading to Cincinnati. So far he has only kept Wacha and added one bat. That means the Royals still need to add two or three players, and the rumor mill around them is running wild in anticipation.
The second is that the Royals, while spending money, might be doing it smarter than other teams. So far, four starters have signed extensions or free-agent contracts this winter. Wacha, Gerrit Cole, Yusei Kikuchi, and Blake Snell. Let’s look at how those deals stack up.
All three pitchers might be projected for more fWAR than Wacha, but last year they were all pretty even (minus Cole, who missed significant time with injury.) And Wacha will be paid less than half of what Cole and Snell will get. Meanwhile, Kikuchi had a negative WAR year three years ago, meaning both the Angels and the projections are heavily betting on how good he was after the Astros picked him up last offseason.
The Royals might not end up with the best pitcher of the four, but they seem to have gotten him at a bargain rate compared to the others. And when you’re a small market team, that’s the sort of thing that matters. It’s also worth noting that the other three are expected to be the aces of their teams. Wacha will only be asked to be the third-best pitcher on his team. So, sure, the Angels outspent the Royals and if everything goes as expected, they might have gotten a better pitcher, but barring further moves, their rotation still seems likely to be quite a bit worse.
In other news, the Royals also reportedly asked about Juan Soto. Now, there is almost no way a deal happens there. But everyone knew the contract was going to be a lot. Why would the Royals even ask if they wouldn’t have even considered ponying up some serious dollars? Again, Juan Soto seems completely out of reach with the big boys bidding against each other. But if you’d consider a Juan Soto at the bottom of his range then an Alex Bregman doesn’t seem completely unreasonable. To be clear, I don’t really want the Royals to sign Bregman given some red flags in his profile, but that could be the pool they’re playing in right now. That’s a pool with more depth and clearer water than I’ve seen the Royals playing in in my nearly-30 years of fandom. It’s exciting!
Listen, I’ve been known to jump the gun. But this feels real. The people who know more than me say it’s real. The Royals seem entirely willing to actually prioritize winning over maximum profitability for the first time in my lifetime*. That doesn’t just make them different from their historical selves, it makes them different from the majority of the league.
*To be clear, they’re almost certainly still making money. And there’s nothing wrong with making money! Not to go too far off-topic, but a big problem with the world economy is that every corporation seems to prioritize maximum profits over sustainability or consumer trust. Seeing my favorite baseball team appear to buck that trend is very cool and praise-worthy!
There was some thought last offseason that the Royals might be paying players in order to convince the public to build them a new stadium. But then they went out and gave Bobby Witt Jr. a ton of money in the long term. That’s a signal of a team that wants to win, not just get a new stadium. The fact that they’re still spending this offseason would seem to indicate that their taste of the playoffs last year hasn’t dulled their desire to keep trying. It also seems to indicate that the team is smart enough to realize they know they can’t just run it back with the same guys from last year and hope everyone just plays better. Assuming, of course, you hadn’t read Picollo’s words where he said exactly that.
The biggest reason mid-market teams don’t win consistently isn’t just that the Yankees and Dodgers outspend them. It’s that those teams don’t even try to spend enough to compete. Barring drastic changes, the Yankees and Dodgers are still going to win more often than other teams. But small market teams can regularly make the postseason and occasionally earn an upset if they make an effort. The Royals made some luck by drafting and developing Witt and then trading for Ragans. Now they’re making that effort and following through by filling pieces in around their two stars.
It’s a great time to be a Royals fan. Perhaps the greatest since the 70s and 80s. And I am so thankful to share it with all of you.