Free Agent Profile: Trevor Williams, SP
Trevor Williams
Position: SP B/T: R/R
Age: 32 (4/25/1992)
2024 Traditional Stats: 6-1, 2.03 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 66.2 IP, 59 SO, 18 BB, 13 GS
2024 Advanced Stats: 2.6 bWAR, 2.0 fWAR, 199 ERA+, 22.7 SO%, 6.9 BB%, 3.13 xERA, 2.79 FIP, 3.82 xFIP
Rundown
Trevor Williams was hurt with a right flexor muscle strain for much of 2024, but he was excellent when healthy, accumulating 2.6 bWAR in just 13 starts, his highest since he had his best season with the Pirates in 2018 (14-10, 3.11 ERA, 31 starts, 3.8 bWAR).
The nine-year veteran was 5-0 with a 2.22 ERA over 56 2/3 innings for the Nationals after beating the Braves on May 30 when the injury sidelined him for nearly four months. He came back to make two starts in September.
“He was one of the best pitchers in the league to start the season, probably was going to be an All-Star,” Nationals pitcher Patrick Corbin said after Williams threw five innings of one-run ball in his return on Sept. 20. “For something like that to happen, it stinks. You see him every day coming to the field, the same guy, working hard trying to get back. Sometimes those elbow injuries stink a little bit and can keep you out a little bit longer.”
Williams was dealt to the Mets with Javier Báez from the Cubs at the 2021 trade deadline for Pete Crow-Armstrong. In his two seasons with the Mets he was 3-5 with a 3.17 ERA, pitching mainly out of the bullpen (40 appearances, 12 starts). He went to Washington as a free agent in 2022 and had a forgettable 2023 (5.55 ERA, 1.60 WHIP) when he gave up a major league-high 34 home runs in 30 starts.
The 2024 turnaround came after he stopped throwing his curve and started throwing a sweeper. He gave up just three homers in 66 2/3 innings, his home run rate dipping dramatically from 5.2% in 2023 to a career-best 1.2% this past season.
“I think we learned last year that, even with a pitch I’ve had success with in the past, I kept trying to go to it,” Williams told Mid-Atlantic Sports Network. “And it was getting really damaged. So, just try and avoid damage. That’s pitching. Try and figure out where you can not get hurt by slug. Thankfully, we were able to find that and ride that wave.”
His improvements in his peripherals were absurd, as his xBA and xERA figures increased from eighth percentile to the 86th percentile and the ninth percentile to the 79th percentile, respectively. The emergence of that aforementioned sweeper (.135 BAA, .142 xBA), which he threw 21.1% of the time in 2024, he instrumental to the new-found success.
Contract
Williams didn’t make the list of the top 50 free agents for MLB Trade Rumors or The Athletic. He is coming off a two-year, $13 million deal. Fangraph’s crowd-sourced projections have William’s next deal at two-years worth $18 million overall.
Recommendation
The Mets need a lot of help in their rotation. As it stands, there are really only two locks to the Mets’ rotation, in Kodai Senga and David Peterson. Though, with those two, Senga is coming off an injury-riddled 2024 season and Peterson had a career year. With needed help up-and-down the rotation, a healthy Williams would fit nicely, at that projected price tag, toward the back of the Mets 2025 rotation.
Not to mention, he has shown that he can be effective out of the bullpen as well, holding batters to a .682 OPS as a reliever with the Mets in 2022. That versatility could come in handy. Especially at a reasonable price tag at around only $9 mill per season.
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