Trying To Read A’s Minds As Hot Stove (Presumably) Heats Up
General Managers have met, groundwork has been laid, and historically right as we are digesting our Thanksgiving turkey the hot stove kicks into high gear. Except, of course, when it doesn’t.
The market is waiting for Juan Soto to sign his infinity-bajillion dollar, 43 year deal with opt outs at every prime number, but the A’s aren’t so focused on that Juan player.
The A’s are trying to be up to something, hampered by the unattractiveness of a AAA ballpark to free agents and their apparent refusal to shop Brent Rooker, JJ Bleday, or Mason Miller as they try to leap to competitiveness.
Perhaps the A’s will be enticed by a deal that is “too good to pass up” and will deal one of those 3 after all, or maybe they will get creative with the payroll flexibility they have to improve their team without losing a key cog.
Last week I focused on several players the A’s could look at, all unlikely to land in Sacramento but certainly all appealing as targets. They were Roki Sasaki, Jordan Montgomery, and Luis Robert.
So today let’s pick a different focus and check it for whether it is realistic and if so desirable. Remember that the A’s are not, unfortunately, in position to pursue players who are slam dunks. So their quest to improve at 3B, to put a “true CFer” in CF, or to bolster the front end of the rotation, requires risk-taking or creativity.
Roll The Dice On An Enigma
Just as Robert has been somewhat enigmatic in his career, talented but oft injured and inconsistent, there is a “Top Of The Rotation” SP available whose only blemish is that he hasn’t really pitched the part throughout his career. He does, however, check the boxes for a perfectly possible A’s acquisition.
His name (dramatic pause, possibly even a commercial break)...is Steven Matz. Once touted as a future ace, Matz has had an uneven career that has mostly disappointed. He is now 33.
Why The A’s Might Want Him
Here are some of the boxes Matz checks as a possible A’s target:
- 2025 is the final year of his contract.
- He is owed $12.5M in 2025, enough that the St. Louis Cardinals would like to be freed of the commitment but little enough that the A’s can well afford to take on the entire contract.
- Matz has “FOTR” pedigree and stuff, even if that hasn’t translated to a great MLB career to date.
- The stuff is still there: Matz’ fastball averaged 93.9 MPH in 2024, almost exactly his career average (93.8 MPH).
- Matz’ career peripherals are more than solid. In 193 career starts he has a low BB rate (2.72/9 IP) and a high K rate (8.55/9 IP), belying his mediocre 55-60, 4.29 ERA record.
Why He Might Be Attainable
Reportedly, the Cardinals are open to trading Matz. They are hamstrung by the fact that Sonny Gray (entering year 2 of a 3 year, $75M deal) and Willson Contreras (guaranteed $72M over the next 4 seasons) have full no-trade clauses, while Nolan Arenado (guaranteed $59M the next 2 seasons) also has rights to veto a trade.
So the Cardinals may look to free themselves of Matz’ salary while attempting to get younger and more athletic as Arenado and Contreras show signs of aging. The asking price for Matz isn’t sky high due to his history of injury and inconsistency combined with a slightly underwater contract.
In theory, the A’s ought to be able to nab a prospect for the favor of taking Matz’ contract off of St. Louis’ hands. In reality, Matz’ contract isn’t bad it just isn’t good and whether or not you trade for him depends a lot on how much you believe in him being better than average in 2025.
What A Deal Might Look Like
If the A’s wanted to bet on Matz, one complication is that the Cardinals don’t have many prospects at 3B or CF you would want to bundle into a deal.
The A’s could go after a pitching prospect, which is what comprises the majority of St. Louis’ top prospects (14 of their top 21 are pitchers). Among outfielders the most interesting one is probably Chase Davis (#7), but he comes with the caveat that he might not stick in CF.
Interestingly, according to BTV here is a fair value swap — but I caution that to my eyes it looks like a deal the A’s would make in a heartbeat but the Cardinals would be unwilling to do:
Steven Matz and Chase Davis to the A’s, Esteury Ruiz to St. Louis.
Perhaps a more plausible deal has the A’s acquiring a pitcher that follows a familiar recent pattern: ground ball specialties. While banking on Matz to find his old pedigree, the A’s could target former 1st pick MIchael McGreevy, now 24 and MLB ready but without a MiLB track record befitting a #1 pick (4.13 ERA in 89 starts).
It’s worth noting that ground ball pitchers (like JT Ginn) often struggle in the minors pitching in front of porous defenses. McGreevy’s career BB rate of 2.25/9 IP might be more telling that he is ready to contribute on a big league mound.
A deal that matches up well on BTV might look like this:
Steven Matz and Michael McGreevy to the A’s, Esteury Ruiz or Will Simpson or Brennan Milone to St. Louis.
Is there a trade in there you can see both teams doing? And if so, is it one you want to see the A’s consummate?
Opinions on Matz will likely vary considerably, as his prospect rankings, and his career BB/K rates look one way, while his overall production on a big league mound look another way. And he’s 33, which is neither old nor young with a contract that is neither inflated nor a bargain.
Ball’s in your court for discussion. Sorry, wrong sport. Ball’s on your mound...