Assad regime in Syria teeters on the edge of oblivion

JERUSALEM – As the dust began to settle on a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Lebanon, which is still holding … but only just, almost without warning the issue of Syria leaped back into the spotlight.

Intense international attention had been focused on stopping the almost 14-month conflict between Israel and Hezbollah. It seemed nobody expected fighting, which initially erupted in Syria in March 2011, to pick up again.

There are numerous players currently vying for power in Syria, including the country’s long-standing President Bashar al-Assad, whom Russia and Iran back. What we do know is that thousands of fighters from Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, or HTS, a Sunni Islamist group previously known as Jabhat al-Nusra, al-Qaida’s former branch in Syria, launched a widespread attack on government forces on November 28 in northwestern Syria. The Islamists quickly overran Syrian army positions, with reports of a large contingent of Russian special forces being killed, captured or fleeing the onslaught.

54 reported deaths in Idlib, north Syria, after Russian warplanes bombed the city.

Unlike the IDF, the Russians don’t drop flyers inviting the civilians to evacuate, or do “roof knocking”

But don’t hold your breath, the UN is not going to have any issue with this pic.twitter.com/KareTHaofn

— Hamas Atrocities (@HamasAtrocities) December 1, 2024

On Sunday, Russian warplanes – with support from the Syrian Air Force – bombed mostly civilian targets in Idlib, with early reports claiming dozens of deaths in the attack. Furthermore, it seems Assad can also count on the active support of Turkey – a NATO member – which is thought to have backed jihadists who have taken the opportunity to attack its long-time foe, the Kurds.

For their part, the Kurds in Aleppo, for example, have taken up arms against the Islamists, and are doing what they can to protect Syria’s Christian community in their region.

Beginners guide to what’s going on in Syria: pic.twitter.com/ffgB9oV2Y3

— Yagdil Isn’t Brisk (@Briskerov) November 30, 2024

There were rumors on Saturday suggesting Assad and his family had been whisked out of the country, possibly to Russia, although these have not been verified. It should be to point out that while Assad is a butcher, and some 600,000 Syrians have been killed during the civil war, along with approximately half of the 20 million population either externally or internally displaced, the so-called rebels are jihadists, who will attempt to deal even more brutally to non-Muslims.

Indeed, there are already reports of public beheadings, including of Syrian soldiers. Israel’s former prime minister Menachem Begin when asked his opinion about the Iran-Iraq war, pithily responded, “We wish great success to both sides.” Despite the Assad regime’s appalling human rights record, the lightning nature of the rebel attack and the speed with which it has overrun Syrian positions bodes ill for the coming weeks, especially as it has been accompanied by strict enforcement of sharia law.

It appears we are seeing in real-time the fraying of the so-called Axis of Resistance’s fabric. Hezbollah has had a close working relationship with the Assad regime in Syria, yet Israel dealt it monumental blows over the last three months or so, which culminated in the current uneasy peace, and was preceded by the decapitation of Iran’s Lebanese proxy’s entire leadership structure.

If nature abhors a vacuum, geopolitics is similarly attuned to the rise and fall of different groups’ fortunes. The damage Hezbollah has suffered has clearly presented an opportunity to Sunni Islamists.

Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyhau said he and the defense establishment were keeping a watchful eye on the developments in Syria, saying “We are determined to protect the State of Israel’s interests, as well as protect all our achievements during the war.”

Even if the forces of Assad, Putin and Khamanei are driven from Syria – or at least put on the backfoot – it is not axiomatically true – at least from an Israeli perspective – that what follows it, especially if it is implacably jihadist in nature. The maxim about the enemy of my enemy being my friend, might not fit this situation as some might assume.

אנחנו עוקבים כל הזמן אחרי מה שקורה בסוריה. אנחנו נחושים גם להגן על האינטרסים החיוניים של מדינת ישראל, וגם לשמר את ההישגים של המלחמה.

במובן הזה אנחנו גם אוכפים בצורה מאוד תקיפה את הסכם הפסקת האש, וכל הפרה מיד פוגשת תגובה עצימה של צה”ל. כך היה וכך יהיה. נמשיך לשמור על ביטחון… pic.twitter.com/jdYf2I7GHF

— Benjamin Netanyahu – בנימין נתניהו (@netanyahu) December 1, 2024