Free Agent Profile: Aroldis Chapman, RP
Aroldis Chapman, RP
Position: RP B/T: L/L
Age: 36 (02/28/1988)
2024 Traditional Stats: 68 G, 61 2/3 IP, 3.79 ERA, 1.346 WHIP, 5-5, 98 SO, 39 BB
2024 Advanced Stats: 111 ERA+, 37% K%, 14.7% BB%, 2.96 xERA, 3.04 FIP, 3.14 xFIP, 1.1 fWAR
Rundown
Aroldis Chapman is known for firing a 105.8-mile-per-hour fastball in 2010 when he was just 22 years old—the fastest pitch ever recorded in MLB history. He still averaged 98.7 MPH on his fastball in 2024 and has even touched 105. He has thrown more 103, 104, and 105 MPH pitches than anyone else. Quite simply, he is the hardest-throwing pitcher in recent memory, aside from some very up-for-debate takes regarding people like Nolan Ryan or Satchel Paige. His fastball has earned Chapman the nickname “The Cuban Missile.”
Chapman defected from Cuba in 2009 as a 21-year-old, immediately drawing interest around the league thanks to his blazing fastball. When he debuted with the Cincinnati Reds, he became one of the game’s premier closers. Over his first six seasons in the majors, Chapman posted a stellar 2.17 ERA across 319 innings and locked down 146 saves.
In 2016, the Yankees traded for Chapman, only to flip him to the Cubs at the Trade Deadline in exchange for Gleyber Torres. Down the stretch, Chapman played a pivotal role in helping Chicago end their 108-year World Series drought. After the championship, Chapman returned to the Yankees, signing a record-setting five-year, $86 million deal. At the time, he signed the largest contract ever given to a reliever.
When you can consistently touch 101 MPH on the radar gun, it seems impossible to be outmatched, and for the most part, Chapman has shown that to be true. But even with his heater holding steady, he’s started to lose an edge. For instance, in 2022, his ERA climbed above 4.00 for the first time in his career. At first glance, his 10.7 SO/9 looks solid. Compared to his career average of 14.9 SO/9 entering the year 2022, it shows a definite decline for the Missile. This drop in strikeouts and his struggles to find the zone led to an unmanageable 1.54 SO/BB rate. Even a 101 MPH fastball cannot save you if you lose control.
Chapman was mired in some controversy off the field. According to manager Aaron Boone, Chapman missed a mandatory team workout with the Yankees before the 2022 postseason. General manager Brian Cashman fined him and was barred from making the postseason roster.
While it’s unclear how Chapman’s disciplinary issues impacted his value, the Yankees elected not to re-sign him. The Royals then took a flyer on him, and after a great first half in 2023, they flipped him at the Trade Deadline to the Rangers for emerging ace Cole Ragans. Once again, Chapman played a central role in a win-win trade—he helped his new team secure a Fall Classic victory while the Royals added a future star.
Chapman now comes off a 2024 season in which he regressed slightly, but his underlying metrics remain solid. His 3.79 ERA isn’t eye-catching, but it comes with a 3.04 FIP and 2.98 xERA. Additionally, he still strikes batters out at a crazy high rate of 37.1%. Unfortunately, he still has no idea where the ball is going. His BB% of 14.4% ranks in the 1st percentile. More significantly, Chapman also couldn’t limit hard contact, a defining characteristic in the past. Batters averaged a 90.5 MPH exit velocity, ranking in the 9th percentile.
At this point in his career, Chapman is a high-risk, high-reward option. His disgusting fastball still generates strikeouts, but it’s so wild and perhaps prone to hard contact that Chapman is completely unpredictable. If he can harness his command and go back to allowing less hard contact, he still has the potential to be dominant, but in his older age, the margin for error has shrunk.
Contract
Neither MLB Trade Rumors nor The Athletic ranked Chapman among the Top 50 Free Agents, but FanGraphs slotted him in at 37th. They predict he will net a one-year, $10 million deal, which seems reasonable for a 37-year-old with a high ceiling. However, he earned $10 million last year coming off a slightly better season, so it wouldn’t be surprising if he took a pay cut this time around.
Recommendation
The Mets are in desperate need of a left-handed reliever. Right now, their bullpen features just one southpaw: Danny Young. So, they’ll likely sign a lefty, but perhaps not Chapman. While Chapman wouldn’t be the worst signing of all time, he is the definition of unknown. He’s getting older, and although his fastball hasn’t lost much velocity, he’s at an age where his performance can go downhill quickly. David Stearns generally looks for bargains in the reliever market, and Chapman isn’t that commodity. Unless Chapman can prove he’s worth the risk, it’s more likely he’ll land elsewhere. The Mets might not offer him the closer or setup man role he’d want, nor the salary he’s looking for.
Overall, given his volatile pitching style and also the Mets’ recent signing of Genesis Cabrera to bolster their left-handed bullpen depth, pursuing the 37-year-old Chapman seems unnecessary. Cabrera provides a younger, more cost-effective option with less risk, making Chapman a less attractive fit for the team’s needs.
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