2024 Season in Review: Freddy Fermin’s regression was inevitable, but his value is still there

His power dried this season, but was still great behind the plate

Freddy Fermin becoming a big leaguer at all was a bit of an improbability.

The Venezuelan signed with Kansas City just past the All-Star Break in 2015 as an international free agent. He was already 20-years-old and Royals fans were surely thinking about different things when he put pen to paper.

The backstop didn’t play his first professional ball until he was 21, a late start for an international signing. He was nearly three years older than the average rookie ball player in 2018 at Burlington and again in A-ball as a 24-year-old at Lexington.

Despite the late start, Fermin crept through the Royals system, and by 2021, the plus defender was doing someone nobody had really expected: He was hitting. Between 2021-22, the catcher logged a .843 OPS across AA and AAA. Despite that, nobody expected the rookie season he would have, logging a 107 wRC+ along with excellent defense behind the plate in 2023. His 1.8 fWAR was the 3rd highest mark on a woeful 2023 squad, a full two wins better than Salvador Perez’s -0.4 fWAR.

Unsurprisingly, he regressed at the plate in 2024, thanks to a brutal final 3rd of the season. What does that mean for 2025? Let’s look at three key takeaways from Freddy Fermin’s 2024 season.

Fermin’s first two-thirds of the season was a mirage

Fermin was against the eightball since signing with Kansas City as a 20-year-old, but he showed consistency behind the plate and as a hitter. His first three seasons were uninspiring, but not untenable with his defense. By 2023, he was the 14th-ranked prospect in the Royals system according to Fangraphs.

The power, though, was a question mark. Fermin doesn’t walk a ton and chases more than average. However, his exit velocity between 2022 and 2023 increased at the minor-league level, suggesting he had gotten a bit stronger later in his 20’s. His early returns supported that.

He ended 2023 with nine homers in 235 at-bats. That powered a .461 SLG% and .180 ISO. Through July, those numbers were at .441 and .137. He was hitting .304 and walking more. His wRC+ was at 122. Behind the hood, though, Fermin was riding a .352 BABIP to that success and came crashing down to earth. From August 1 on, Fermin slashed .222/.264/.252 with just four extra-base hits and no home runs.

Fermin has never been a masher, but his Hard-Hit% (42.7%) and Average Exit Velocity (89.9) were a tick above average in 2023. In 2024, they bottomed out. His exit velocity tumbled to 88.2, in the 29th percentile, while his Hard-Hit% of 33.9% was in the 18th percentile.

Crucially, his Barrel% fell by more than 100%, from 9.9% to 3.2%. He had 17 barrels on 171 batted balls in 2023 and just nine barrels on 277 batted balls in 2024. His numbers looked pretty, but the BABIP police came quickly.

Fermin’s defense was not a mirage

While the first two-thirds of his season at the plate may have been a bit fraudulent, his defense certainly wasn’t. In fact, he established himself as one of the best backstops in the sport. His 13.5 defensive runs above average ranked 10th among catchers with at least 500 innings behind the plate. his Baseball Savant page looked pretty good too, as Fermin was in the 92nd percentile in blocking and 97th in caught stealing.

His framing was a bit of a weak spot, but he finished the season in the 83rd percentile for fielding run value. If Defensive Runs Saved is your cup of tea, it gets even better, as Fermin’s 16 DRS ranked third in all of baseball.

Kansas City was bottom 3rd in the league in offensive runs above average and wRC+. The model this year was simple: Pitch well, defend, and hope that Bobby, Salvy, and Vinnie are hitting. Fermin contributed to the defense and helped Salvy keep his legs under him offensively.

Fermin’s versatility is the perfect fit for the 2025 squad

This is where things get tricky. We have two years of data on Fermin. One looked really good. The other looked pretty darn good as well. It’s easy to forget that despite his late struggles at the plate, he was a 3.0 rWAR player.

We know who he is as a defender. The question is whether he will look more like the 2023 version of himself or the 2024 version at the plate in 2025.

Fermin’s path to the bigs wasn’t typical. By the time he became a legitimate prospect, Fangraphs described his makeup as an “uncommonly good backup who might be a late-blooming regular.” The jury is still out on which of those is true. And depending on how you look at things, the jury is still out on whether 2023 Freddy or 2024 Freddy is the best version. In a perfect world, Freddy marries the bat of 2023 with the defense of 2024 and we all get to have a great reception in 2025.

We don’t know what Freddy is yet. But we do know one thing for sure: He is a perfect fit for the 2025 squad.

Too often, Kansas City has employed role players with fringe starter upside and thrust them into starting roles. I was Michael A. Taylor’s greatest defender because of this. Taylor was a tremendous player for Kansas City, logging a 5.8 rWAR across his two seasons. The problem wasn’t Taylor. The problem was Kansas City asking him to be an everyday player, and to his credit, Taylor played as well as you could ask.

Thanks to Salvador Perez, Kansas City has the perfect storm with its backstops. With Salvy, they have an aging catcher whose value used to be in his defense but is now in his offense. With Fermin, you have a fringe starter who can ensure that Salvy’s days as a workhorse are over. The Royals can deploy Fermin at full strength, not relying on him to play every day like they did with Taylor. And they can deploy Salvy at full strength, allowing him to have his day as a defender while keeping him on a pitch count.

Fermin isn’t just a backup. And if he can regress to the mean at the plate in 2025 you don’t have to squint too hard to see him as a pretty darn good everyday player.