LeBron James’ turnovers are a symptom of a larger problem, but is it fixable?

Do LeBron James’ recent struggles signal a real decline or is this just a more pronounced slump than what we’re used to seeing from him?

It is not an exaggeration to state that LeBron James is going through one of the worst stretches of basketball he’s played since coming to the Lakers, particularly on the offensive side of the ball.

James has missed his last 19 attempts from behind the arc over a four-game span, has gone six games without shooting over 50% from the field, has cracked 20 points just once in those same six contests and has committed at least four turnovers in 10 of his last 11 games.

His 27-point, 14-assist outburst in Sunday’s win over the Jazz feels like an aberration in the face of his recent play rather than the hope it was signaling a return to the form that he’s exhibited in many games this season. If that feels too generous to his overall play this year, it’s not.

This year, LeBron’s per-game averages of 22 points, 8 rebounds, and 9.1 assists not only continue to defy his age, but are numbers only matched by Nikola Jokic across all three categories.

Oh, there are certainly things to pick at with LeBron this season — whether it’s his ability to defend or how hard he’s running back in transition are two big ones — but his general productivity and ability to post raw counting stats in key categories remains very strong for a player of any age.

That said, it’s also clear that LeBron is struggling more this season than any in recent memory — or any season I can recall, period — and his recent stretch highlights that. And more than the lack of success from behind the arc or the dip in overall field goal percentage, the thing that stands out both in the box score and when watching the games live are the turnovers.

First, it should be pointed out that turnovers, particularly for high-usage players who double as high-assist players, are not out of the ordinary. The league leaders in turnovers per game are almost a mirror image of those who are dishing out the most dimes:

• Trae Young: first in assists (12.1), first in turnovers (4.8)
• Nikola Jokic: second in assists (10.7), seventh in turnovers (3.7)
• LeBron: third in assists (9.1), fifth in turnovers (4.0)
• Cade Cunningham: fourth in assists (9.0), second in turnovers (4.7)

That said, the four turnovers LeBron is averaging per game are the third-most in his career and the most since his second season in Los Angeles, coincidentally, the last season he played this much point guard.

It’s not just the per-game numbers, however. It’s the number of high-turnover games and the nature of the miscues that are raising a flag for me.

This season alone, LeBron already has 11 games in which he’s committed five or more turnovers in a game. That total is just four fewer than he had all last season and just two fewer than he had in the 2022-23 season. Beyond the raw totals, though, it’s how he’s committing the turnovers that stand out.

Two of the more damaging types of turnovers that LeBron has been making this season, particularly of late, are ones that I classify as coming from lack of creating advantage or from a lack of mental sharpness and engagement.

After watching every single turnover LeBron has committed this season, the number of times LeBron simply threw the ball to the other team was, frankly, higher than I thought it would be. Even though I’d watched all these plays live happen in the games and even remember being frustrated on many, if not all of them, seeing them stacked together and played one after another was a bit striking.

Below is a sampling of what I mean:

I could have easily pulled at least a half dozen others, but I thought this trio of turnovers against the Jazz encapsulated the issue well. On every single one of these plays, LeBron is either not focused or careless which, honestly, might just be a distinction without a difference.

These sorts of passes are also indicative of what I refer to as “shortcut” turnovers in which LeBron seemingly bails out of a possession earlier than needed, looking for the homerun pass rather than trying to extend the sequence and hunt a better look for the team. There can be a fine line between taking a calculated chance and seeking out a shortcut, but the number of times he’s had these sorts of turnovers leads me to believe it’s more the latter than the former.

There’s also an argument to be made that these sorts of passes are the product of a decreased mental stamina, particularly in relation to being engaged on making the right plays over the course of a full game.

We often talk about a player’s battle against father time through the lens of physical ability and declining athleticism in the face of aging. But, for a player of LeBron’s physical stature, I’d argue it’s the possession-to-possession engagement in a random November game where it’s more his mental stamina than his physical ability that would be tested.

Of course, being physically tested at his age is also a real thing. And it’s turnovers related to him no longer creating advantage as easily as he once did when he was the game’s predominant physical force that are also showing up more frequently this season and especially recently.

Again, here’s a string of plays:

Just as in the other video where we were looking at his engagement or focus, the trends here are pretty clear.

On possession after possession, LeBron is pushing hard and looking to get downhill in order to create a shot for himself or a teammate. And time after time, he’s simply not creating the separation he has in previous years, and it’s leading to him either getting caught in the air with nowhere to go with the ball or throwing the ball away to a help defender.

There is a certain muscle memory great players have from years of being the focal point of opposing defenses. And there may be no other player in the history of the league who this is more true of than LeBron. Consistently considered one of the elite thinkers of the game, LeBron has literal decades of experience in seeing every type of defense imaginable, gaining advantage against that defense and then making the right read as either a scorer or a passer to beat that coverage to get his team a good look.

What those clips — and many others from different games — illustrate is what can happen when your muscle memory of what read to make kicks in while the premise of creating the requisite advantage for that read to be correct is not met. In other words, LeBron is not putting the same sorts of pressure on defenses as he’s used to, but his reads and decision-making as a passer are not changing with those new realities.

And the results are him giving the ball to the other team more often.

Now, if you’ve come this far expecting the final conclusion to be that LeBron is cooked and that he’s now permanently a high-turnover, low-efficiency offensive player, I’m sorry to disappoint you.

The above clips — and many others not shown — do not inspire a lot of hope, but a sizzle reel of any player’s mistakes would have the same effect. Just as a player is not as great as a compilation of his highlights would suggest, me showing you a bunch of LeBron’s turnovers does not mean he’s washed.

That said, it’s clear that LeBron is in a funk right now. It’s also clear that maybe the current ask is just a bit too big for him. After all, he’s not just weeks away from turning 40, is playing 35 minutes a night, has committed to playing in every game and is serving as the team’s primary offensive initiator while also being its only forceful perimeter downhill driver.

It’s no coincidence that since shifting D’Angelo Russell to the bench and essentially becoming the team’s starting point guard 13 games ago, LeBron has seen a major dip in his outside shooting (26.1% shooting) and a spike in his turnovers (4.8 per game). And while I’m not necessarily advocating for a return of that original starting lineup, I do think that lessening LeBron’s burden as an on-ball player by finding more ways to spread out those responsibilities in the various lineups he plays in is important.

Assuming the starting group stays the same, I think getting back to playing through Anthony Davis more and allowing him to be the focal point of the team’s offense would be a step in the right direction. As LeBron’s taken on a bigger load these last few weeks, AD’s production has declined, and that is not a recipe for success in either the short or the long term.

In bench groups, I think LeBron should play in more lineups with Russell and that the team should go back to playing more organized offense, reincorporating the Horns and Spain pick-and-roll sets that were fixtures of the team’s early season success offensively. The team needs that structure and LeBron, at this stage of his career, needs the support that structure can help facilitate in both his teammates and the team’s overall organization.

In saying all that, though, LeBron must also be open to the potential that reality is shifting for him in real time. Yes, it may have been just a few months ago that he won MVP of the Olympics while helping to lead Team USA to a gold medal, but the fact of the matter is that was a one-month tournament and this is an 82-game season.

Better understanding what his limitations are in this context and how to best account for them will only serve him and the team well. And if that means taking a few more nights off to aid in his recovery and night-to-night energy levels (both physical and mental) or passing off the baton to his teammates for them to carry the load more, those things should be embraced and not pushed back against.

After all, Father Time really is undefeated. If LeBron wants to fend him off for just a bit longer, he might not be able to keep going at things the same way.

You can follow Darius on Twitter at @forumbluegold.