A Weakened Iranian Regime Dealt Another Severe Blow as Syria's Assad Falls to Rebel Factions

After 13 years of civil war, Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad’s regime has fallen. The stunning development further weakens a battered Iran, removing from the Middle East a longtime ally who helped Tehran expand its militant footprint.

Assad was forced to flee Damascus on Sunday after Islamist opposition forces, including the U.S.-designated terror group Hayʼat Tahrir ash-Sham (HTS), took control of the city. The dictator reportedly absconded to Russia, which has served as one of his key allies throughout the decade-plus war.

Assad’s forces collapsed during a week of battles that saw the rebel fighters seize the city of Aleppo before marching into Damascus. Israel’s near total decimation of Hamas and Hezbollah—two key Iranian militant groups that helped bolster Assad’s regime and used Syria as a pipeline for weapons—sparked that rapid offensive.

"The fall of the brutal Bashar Al-Assad is the latest sign that the dominos of the Iranian regime’s malign, yet fragile, empire are falling," United Against a Nuclear Iran, a U.S. advocacy group, said in a statement. "Its proxies are decimated, its key allies are disappearing, and Iran’s people despise the ayatollah and his cronies. And after Israel’s retaliatory strike on October 26, Iran’s regime sits largely defenseless."

Rep. Mike Turner (R., Ohio), chair of the House Intelligence Committee, echoed that sentiment on Sunday.

"This is a blow to Iran, a blow to Russia," Turner said during a CBS appearance. "We're seeing what is likely a disintegration in Syria. The big questions will be, what does this mean for the U.S.? What does it mean for Iran, Russia, the neighbors of Israel and Jordan, which are strong allies of the United States?"

With rebel forces now in control of Syria, the United States will face tough choices about the pathway forward. Assad was living under intense American sanctions, relying primarily on Tehran and Moscow for support. While many lawmakers and foreign policy experts in Washington, D.C., are embracing his defeat, rebel factions like HTS remain hostile to the United States and see Israel as a bitter enemy.

President Joe Biden, speaking on Sunday from the White House, cautiously welcomed Assad’s fall but said the United States is prepared "should any threat arrive from Syria during this period of transition." The American government, Biden added, will engage with "all Syrian groups," even those aligned with terror factions.

Mohammad Ghazi al-Jalali, Syria’s prime minister, remained in the country over the weekend. He said he would work with all parties to choose the next leader, while HTS, the largest opposition faction, said it would work with al-Jalali until control of the government is turned over.

Simone Ledeen, a former deputy assistant secretary of defense for the Middle East, said Biden’s call for engagement with all opposition groups "underscores the complexity of the situation."

"Syria’s opposition remains fragmented and the involvement of Islamist factions like Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham raises serious concerns about the nature of a future government," she said. "While the end of Assad’s brutal rule presents a historic opportunity, the administration’s approach must avoid repeating the mistakes of the past where U.S. and partner efforts have led to prolonged instability and unforeseen consequences."

One of the biggest outstanding questions surrounds Russia’s two key military bases inside Syria, which remained Moscow’s top priority during 13 years of civil war.

Michael Rubin, a former Pentagon adviser, said President-elect Donald Trump has a chance to fundamentally alter the Middle East by offering Syria’s next leaders a deal to hand over Russia’s bases.

Trump could offer Syria’s Alawi community, the dominant force along the country’s coastal regions, complete autonomy "in exchange for ousting the Russians from their naval base there, handing it to the Americans," Rubin said. "There is precedent. During the Cold War, when the United States flipped Somalia, the United States took over the Soviet base in Berbera."

Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdogan also remains a wild card in Syria’s future. Erdogan is a chief backer of the Syrian opposition, including HTS, and has worked to erode Iran’s influence in the country. But he, too, remains an enemy of Israel and is vying to crush Syria’s Kurdish factions, who have served as U.S. allies in the past.

"Given Turkey’s substantial influence over Syrian opposition groups and its strategic interests, the U.S. must engage in close coordination with Ankara to ensure that efforts to establish a new Syrian regime are cohesive and mutually reinforcing," said Ledeen. "While both nations seek stability in Syria, differing priorities pose challenges."

Israel is also facing tough choices with Assad removed from the picture.

"The big question for Israel," Rubin said, "is whether or not to establish a buffer zone in Syria."

Assad fought Israel by supporting Hezbollah in Lebanon and allowing weapons to pass through his border, though he didn’t commit his own forces to the battle. But "the Islamists in Syria," Rubin warned, "may not want to compromise on what they see as Allah's mission to wipe Israel from the map."

Israel reportedly established a demilitarized buffer zone in the northern Golan Heights region, which is situated near Syria and the border with Hezbollah in Lebanon.

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