Who controls Syria now? The rebel fighters who toppled a ‘tyrant’

Syrian rebels have seized control of Damascus in a stunning offensive that toppled the iron-fisted ‘tyrant’ President Bashar al-Assad — and took the world by surprise.

Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) swept towards the Syrian capital from its stronghold in Idlib last week, capturing cities, liberating prisoners shackled by Assad’s repressive regime and forcing the dictator to flee to Moscow.

Who really controls Syria from now on remains to be seen. Abu Mohammed al-Golani, the militant leader whose fighters led the lightning insurgency, is a complex figure who has spent years reshaping his public image.

He said former Prime Minister Mohammed Ghazi al-Jalali, who was only appointed by Assad in September, will supervise state institutions until they are handed over to a leadership chosen by the people.

But while many Syrians celebrate in the streets, others are focused on al-Golani’s Islamist organisation and what happens next, in a country ravaged by civil war for the past 13 years.

What’s happened in Syria?

Rebels under the banner of multiple militant groups launched a surprise assault from the northern city of Aleppo last week.

But the fighting has mostly been led by HTS, a branch of Al Qaeda formerly known as the Nusra Front. HTS is designated a terrorist organisation by the US, the UN, Turkey and others.

It is believed the group has about 30,000 soldiers.

On Monday the UK government said it will consider reviewing its ban on the group after it drove the overthrow of Assad’s 24-year rule.

Minister for Intergovernmental Relations Pat McFadden told the BBC the situation on the ground was ‘very fluid’ but if stabilised Westminster would make a ‘relatively swift decision’.

The end of the Syrian regime shattered the Assad family’s brutal 50-year rule, which began with Hafez al-Assad in 1971.

Who are the rebels known as HTS?

Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (the Organisation for the Liberation of Syria) was born out of the popular uprising in Syria in 2011, when peaceful protest against the regime triggered a brutal crackdown that led to civil war.

Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi – the leader of Islamic State which has its roots in Al Qaeda – sent his Syrian-born soldier Abu Mohammed al-Golani back to his homeland to form a new wing that would oppose the Syrian government.

In an interview with Al Jazeera in 2015, the 42-year-old – whose real name is Ahmed al-Sharaa – kept his face covered and said his goal was to see Syria ruled by Islamic law.

But by 2016 al-Golani had gone his own way, cutting ties with Al Qaeda in what analysts say was an attempt to appear more moderate. The militant leader has remade his public image in recent years, shedding turban and military fatigues for a suit and sleek, gelled hair.

In his first interview with an American journalist on PBS in 2021, al-Golani insisted his group poses no threat to the West.

‘Yes, we have criticized Western policies,’ he said. ‘But to wage a war against the United States or Europe from Syria, that’s not true. We didn’t say we wanted to fight.’

In 2023, al-Golani allowed the first Christian mass to be held in years in the city of Idlib. As the world watched his soldiers sweep to victory this week, he promised to protect Syria’s Christian communities.

But despite this outwardly facing ‘rebrand’, the future plans of HTS remain unclear.

What other groups are fighting in Syria?

In addition to HTS, many other militias are fighting with their own agendas.

One major group is the Syrian National Army (SNA), not to be confused with official Syrian government forces.

The SNA has close ties to Turkey and is an umbrella organisation for various armed groups, which often clash with Kurdish forces (a longtime enemy of Turkey) but also with each other.

Then there is the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), a coalition of mainly Kurdish fighters who want to establish an independent Kurdish state.

Formed in 2015, the SDF received support from the US in its battle against Islamic State and controlled towns in northeastern Syria since its defeat.

What happened in Syria’s civil war?

Syria’s 13-year war was one of the most complex and devastating conflicts of the 21st century.

It highlights the enduring fractures that divide a country inhabited by an eclectic mix of races and religions: a Sunni Muslim majority and Shiite, Alawite, Druze and Christian minorities.

The war began as an uprising at the height of the Arab Spring in 2011, with riots against Assad’s authoritarian regime.

The demonstrations were met with deadly crackdowns, leading to the formation of armed opposition groups and plunging Syria into a full-scale civil war.

Since then, Assad had been at war with opposition forces resulting in the killing of more than 300,000 people and sending an estimated seven million refugees out of the country.

Over time, the conflict drew in global powers, including Russia, Iran, Turkey, and the US, each backing different sides.

In 2020, Russia and Turkey signed off on a ceasefire in the last remaining opposition-held province, Idlib, agreeing to establish a security corridor with joint patrols.

Why does Russia support Syria?

Russian fighter jets have been fighting Assad’s battle from the skies for more than a decade, striking civilians and militants in Aleppo and Idlib provinces. 

Vladimir Putin has been a staunch supporter of the Assad regime since the early years of the war, providing military, political, and economic backing.

In 2015, the Kremlin launched a significant intervention, striking opposition groups, which turned the tide of the war in the Syrian president’s favor.

Putin’s support is driven by strategic interests. In this way he can maintain the naval base in Tartus, preserving influence in the Middle East.

The Kremlin has now offered Assad and his family – wife Asma and their three children – asylum in Moscow on ‘humanitarian’ grounds.

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