Previewing the 2024 Winter Meeting; What Do The Mets Need?

The 2024 Winter Meetings are set to begin Monday in Dallas, Texas. The four-day event should help escalate what has been a relatively slow start to the offseason. Especially if one specific domino decides to fall, as it is expected to soon.

As far as the New York Mets go, president of baseball operations, David Stearns, has his work cut out for him. Stearns has already been busy though, as he has already made two splashes, attempting to rebuild the rotation with multi-year deals in the form of Frankie Montas (two-years, $34 million; including a player option) and Clay Holmes (three-years, $38 million; including a player option after 2026). They also found the second half of a platoon in center field with Jose Siri coming over from Tampa Bay. He should compliment Tyrone Taylor in center nicely.

New York also completed a number of ancillary moves. They acquired relief pitcher Sean Harney from Tampa Bay, claimed infielder Luis De Los Santos and relief pitcher Kevin Herget off waivers, and signed reliever Génesis Cabrera, reliever Grant Hartwig, outfielder Edward Olivares, outfielder Alex Ramírez, first baseman Joey Meneses, catcher Jakson Reetz, infielder Donovan Walton, outfielder Rafael Ortega, reliever Justin Hagenman, and reliever Dylan Covey to deals. Lastly, the Mets also re-signed relief pitcher Sean-Reid Foley.

This is just the beginning of what projects to be an extremely busy offseason for the Mets.

Payroll Forecast and Potential Spending Consequences

Looking at the Mets’ roster, which we will do in depth down below, you can see that they are nowhere near done. This despite the two rotational moves and the plethora of depth plays that Stearns and staff have already made. To understand just how much more room the team has to work with financially, a quick analysis of their payroll situation and potential consequences is helpful.

As it stands, according to Cot’s Baseball Contracts, the Mets have a projected competitive balance tax (CBT) 40-man roster payroll of $198.3 million. This figure currently ranks ninth in all of baseball. For comparison sake, last year, at this time, the Mets were at $289.76 million; the highest mark in the league. Currently, the highest 40-man CBT payroll is owned by the Dodgers at $309 million, meanwhile, the Phillies sit in second at $275.1 million.

So, what are the penalties the Mets may face if they continue to spend? Where may they project to be by the beginning of the season?

Specifically, if the Mets were to pierce the threshold ($241 million is the first threshold) once again, it would be their fourth-straight year doing so, subjecting themselves to pay 50% tax on all overages. Further, as the Mets spend more and more and get distance themselves from that $241 million baseline, as they may do once again, surcharges will be applied. You can find that breakdown below:

• $261 million to $281 million: 12% surcharge
• $281 million to $301 million: 45% surcharge (would be the fourth-straight year)
• Over $301 million: 60% surcharge

Note, clubs that are $40 million or more above the threshold shall have their highest selection in the next Rule 4 Draft moved back 10 places unless the pick falls in the top six. In that case, the team will have its second-highest selection moved back 10 places instead.

Interestingly, based off the above, entering the Winter Meetings, the Mets are below the baseline threshold for the first time in a while. At $198.3 million, New York is still $42.7 million under the baseline threshold, $62.7 million under the first surcharge threshold, $82.7 million under the second surcharge threshold, and $102.7 million under the third surcharge threshold.

To put on a bow on things, the Mets ended 2024 with a CBT 40-man payroll of $356.5 million, which was by far the highest in baseball (Yankees were second at $310 million). As a result, the Mets flew through each of the three additional penalty surcharge levels and were subject to all the penalties, including the draft pick slide, outlined above.

Where the Mets end up this year, that remains to be seen. However, it would be widely unrealistic to expect them, especially with the dead money off the books, to come anywhere near that final $356.5 million mark they ended 2024 at. That is a staggering 158.2 million off from where they are currently.

You can read a more in-depth explanation on the potential penalties here.

Current Roster Outlook

Despite one of the more successful seasons as a whole in franchise history, the Mets still have a plethora of holes in their current roster. 2024 was a pleasant surprise to many, New York took down two division winners, including their rivals, the Phillies, en route to a National League Championship Series appearance against the eventual World Series champion Los Angeles Dodgers.

No one expected the Mets to come within two wins of a pennant and six wins of a World Series title. However, they did, despite a roster strategically built by president of baseball operations, David Stearns, with several short-term deals. How does the current landscape of the roster project entering the Winter Meetings?

Starting Rotation

1. Kodai Senga
2. Frankie Montas
3. David Peterson
4. Clay Holmes
5. Paul Blackburn

As mentioned above, the Mets already made two additions to the team’s rotation. After Luis Severino, Sean Manaea, and Jose Quintana all became free agents, the Mets have to replace 534 innings and three stalwarts of their 2024 rotation. Of course, it is still possible the Mets bring back Manaea or Quintana, as both are still on the market, but with the losses of those three to the open market, the need to address the rotation is pressing. Thus why we saw two earlier deals to bring in new starters.

Outside of the five projected starters above, the Mets have others such as Tylor Megill or José Buttó who can slot in if needs be. They also have several prospects slated to be at the Triple-A level to begin the year closing in on potential major-league debuts in Brandon Sproat, Blade Tidwell, Mike Vasil, and Dom Hamel.

The Bullpen

Projecting a bullpen is always a tall task. As we saw last year, the Opening Day bullpen for the Mets compared to what it was at the end of the year was night and day. Regardless, as it stands, there are likely only four “locks,” currently in the organization to be in the bullpen on Opening Day; Edwin Díaz, Reed Garrett, Dedinel Núñez, and José Buttó, of course, pending no injuries or trade. Also notable, all four of those arms are right-handed pitchers.

Other relievers currently on the Mets 40-man roster consist of Huascar Brazobán, Dylan Covey, Justin Hagenman, Kevin Herget, Max Kranick, Sean Reid-Foley, Danny Young, and Tyler Zuber. Only Young is a left-handed pitcher. Of those, Brazobán (xERA below 3.64 in each big-league season) and Reid-Foley (2.15 ERA across 29 1/3 innings the last two seasons) are the only two that have seen any sense of sustained success in the big leagues.

Elsewhere, the Mets have non-roster invitees in Génesis Cabrera (LHP), Chris Devenski (RHP), Grant Hartwig (RHP), and Rico Garcia (RHP) set to join them in camp. Additionally, minor leaguer right-handed relievers Trey McLoughlin (1.89 ERA across 33 1/3 Double-A innings in 2024) and Bryce Montes de Oca (struggled in 2024 after returning from elbow surgery) are other potential options.

Then, there is always a possibility that a current starter in the minor leagues can emerge as a bullpen option with the big club, such as Buttó did. Some names to keep an eye on are Blade Tidwell, Mike Vasil, and Dom Hamel.

Position Players

Here is how the Mets’ position player depth chart currently looks based off New York’s 40-man roster:

• C: Francisco Alvarez, Luis Torrens
• 1B:
• 2B: Jeff McNeil, Ronny Mauricio
• 3B: Mark Vientos, Brett Baty
• SS: Francisco Lindor, Luisangel Acuña, Luis De Los Santos
• LF: Brandon Nimmo
• CF: Tyrone Taylor, Jose Siri, José Azocar
• RF: Starling Marte

The Mets also have some minor-league options who can break into the majors at some point. Those consist of Luke Ritter (infielder; 53 home runs the last two seasons), Ryan Clifford (first base), Ronny Mauricio (second base; recovering from injury), Drew Gilbert (outfielder) and Jett Williams (second base, center field; top organizational prospect).

Additionally, New York has some non-roster invitees in Joey Meneses (first base; .731 career major-league OPS), Donovan Walton (infielder; .532 career major-league OPS), Edward Olivares (outfielder; at least 100 major-league at-bats in each of the last four seasons, .714 career major-league OPS), and Alex Ramírez (outfielder; former Mets top prospect) who are each expected to join the team in camp.

The Needs And Potential Answers

A quick glance over the above organizational breakdown shows a clear need for several more additions. The rotation is almost there, but the bullpen and lineup still have some holes. President of baseball operations, David Stearns, has his work cut out for him, in free agency and/or the trade market.

Pitching

Starting Rotation

Signing both Montas and Holmes already are big boosts to a rotation that was by far the Mets’ biggest area of need entering the offseason. However, as it stands, each of the members currently set to make up the starting rotation on Opening Day have question marks.

Despite a terrific debut season in North America (2.98 ERA, 202 strikeouts in 2023), Kodai Senga was only able to make one start and a few postseason appearances in 2024 due to injury. Secondly, David Peterson, although a breakout in 2024, has yet to put two-straight efficient seasons together (5.54 ERA in 2021, 5.03 ERA in 2023). And, Paul Blackburn, who was acquired in 2024, dealt with injury issues and owns a career 4.85 ERA. Not to mention, Tylor Megill has been extremely inconsistent over his big-league career (career 4.56 major-league ERA) and José Buttó is better off as a bullpen piece.

Not to mention, the two newest Mets, Montas and Holmes, have question marks themselves. Montas needs some fixing, as he posted a 4.84 ERA overall in 2024 and did not pitch in 2023 due to injury. Meanwhile, Holmes has not started a big-league game since his rookie season in 2018. Luckily for his situation, the best case is a very cheap quality starting pitcher ($12.67 million annually) and his floor is a quality high-leverage reliever (3.31 ERA as a reliever with the Yankees).

With all that being said, if most of the above hit their ceiling, there is a real chance the Mets’ rotation can be a quality one. Regardless, New York needs to add another higher-level starter, which would help stretch the depth out and push bottom-of-the-rotation guys, such as David Peterson and and Frankie Montas, down the rotation where they are more valuable.

As far as the market goes, Corbin Burns and Max Fried are the top-tier remaining options. However, the Mets haven’t exactly been tied to that duo in reporting nor does chasing pitchers like that in free agency fit what David Stearns usually does. A reunion with Sean Manaea would make a lot of sense, and any of the higher middle-tier free agents of Jack Flaherty, Nathan Eovaldi, Nick Pivetta, or Walker Buehler would also get the job done.

Coincidentally enough, on Saturday, Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic connected the Mets and each of those pitchers. Further hitting home the point the Mets are aware they need a No. 2 or high-tier No. 3 starter to round out their rotation.

An interesting variable is Japanese superstar Rōki Sasaki. Sasaki is set to be posted officially during the Winter Meetings, opening his 45-day window to sign with a major-league team. As Jeff Passan of ESPN confirms, “MLB rules dictate that foreign professionals under 25 years old and with fewer than six years’ experience must sign as international amateurs, Sasaki’s contract will be for a fraction of what he would receive as a major league free agent.” He adds that, “In the capped international-amateur system, the top bonus pools are around $7.5 million and the bottom around $5.1 million, with a team able to trade for up to an additional 60% of its pool money.” So, he will come very cheap.

Sasaki has a career 2.10 ERA across four NPB seasons; stronger numbers than Yoshinobu Yamamoto had, who came over last offseason and posted a 3.00 ERA in his rookie season with the Dodgers. Sasaki should follow suit and be an elite starter in the major leagues right away. Whichever team lands Sasaki, at this discount his contract is required to be, will be getting extreme value. It has long been rumored Sasaki will want to stay on the West Coast, however, Passan does mention the Mets as one of six teams to be “significant players” in the sweepstakes.

The Mets can also turn to the trade market, which, given the circumstances, and the depth in the infield as it relates to prospects (Brett Baty, Luisangel Acuña, Ronny Mauricio, among others), makes more sense to do. The Mets really lack a young, controllable, quality starter, and if they can find one of those, they would instantly fill what is the team’s most pressing long-term need. A team like Seattle or Miami have young starters a plenty, maybe the Mets can strike a deal there.

There are also a plethora of back-of-the-rotation arms on the market, but, as we alluded to previously, that is not a need for the Mets. New York must focus on upper-echelon and top-tier middle-rotation options. They cannot roll into the season with what they currently have.

Bullpen

As mentioned previously, only four spots in the Mets’ bullpen appear to be locked up. That leaves about four spots up for grab, some of which will likely be filled internally from the likes of Reid-Foley, Megill, Young, Brazobán, etc. However, there is still some work to do externally.

Outside of Danny Young, the Mets really have no left-handed option out of the bullpen as it currently stands. Externally, the best option on the market is by far Tanner Scott, however, given the investment the Mets have in Edwin Díaz and potentially another bullpen stalwart in Clay Holmes (if the starter role does not work out) Scott appears unrealistic.

Other quality left-handed options on the market are A.J. Minter (3.28 career ERA with Atlanta), Brooks Raley (2.48 ERA with the Mets prior to injury), Holby Milner (3.64 ERA, 3.42 FIP across four seasons with Milwaukee), Danny Coulombe (2.56 ERA, 90 strikeouts across 81 innings the last two seasons), Jalen Beeks (.570 OPS against left-handed hitters in 2024), Caleb Ferguson (2.88 FIP with the Astros in 2024), and Scott Alexander (.564 OPS against left-handed hitters over his career).

As far as right-handed relievers go, there are a plethora currently on the market. Jeff Hoffman, Kirby Yates, David Robertson, Carlos Estévez, Blake Treinen, and Tommy Kahnle line the top of it. Some of the quality, and underrated, cheaper options consist of Paul Seward (career 3.39 FIP), Scott Barlow (3.49 career ERA), Austin Voth (3.14 xERA in 2024), among others. Regardless, the market is plush with right-handed relief pitcher options.

Despite having about half of the bullpen undecided, the Mets have several different effective routes they can take to round the unit out. This is an area you should see Stearns and staff to continue to address.

Hitting

There are two key factors that will determine how the Mets approach the remainder of the offseason offensively. The first is Juan Soto. Will the Mets land arguably the best all-around hitter in the major leagues? If so, that would take care of right field for years to come and instantly boost the lineup like no other available player could.

The second is Pete Alonso. Will the Mets bring back their slugging first baseman? If they did, he would in all likelihood own all of the franchise’s power records when it’s said and done. If he walks, that would likely mean the movement of Mark Vientos from third base to first base, opening a hole at the other corner infield spot.

Those two aspects aside, it is all but confirmed that the Mets are set at catcher (Alvarez, Torrens), shortstop (Lindor), left field (Nimmo), and center field (Taylor, Siri). First base is contingent on Alonso, but in all likelihood, Alonso or not (Vientos), that position should be filled. That leaves a question mark at second base, third base (or first base if the Mets don’t switch Vientos to first), right field (if the Mets don’t sign Soto), and designated hitter.

Second base can theoretically be a platoon of Jeff McNeil and Luisangel Acuña. Not to mention, Ronny Mauricio is finally due back after a knee injury resulted in him missing all of 2024 and the Mets have been experimenting with Brett Baty at second base in the minors. If the Mets are not thrilled with those options, they can turn to the open market which features a premier option of Gleyber Torres and quality depth in Jose Iglesias, Thairo Estrada, and Whit Merrifield, among others.

At third base, if the Mets don’t re-sign Alonso, they should move Vientos (sixth percentile outs above average in 2024) to the easier first base. Though, if Alonso is re-signed, Vientos likely figures to be at third base on Opening Day. The premier third base option in free agency is Alex Bregman, who is projected by MLB Trade Rumors to sign a seven-year deal worth $182 million. He fits what Stearns and company covet (strong defender, low strikeout rate, good contact rates) and would replace Alonso admirably.

Outside of Bregman, the third base options in free agency are not exactly enticing. Gio Urshela would be nice depth, but there really is not any everyday options. So, if Alonso walks, and the Mets do move Vientos over to first base, they might be in some trouble. Granted, there is the trade market or maybe Brett Baty can emerge as an everyday player in 2025. The Mets can also bite the bullet and leave Vientos at third base, despite the extremely poor defense. If they go that route, and lose Alonso, Carlos Santana (.749 OPS in 2024, Gold Glove winner), Christian Walker (.803 OPS in 2024), and Josh Bell (.796 OPS with Arizona in 2024) are all potential free agent options at first base.

Right field is the interesting spot. Of course, if the Mets sign Soto, there will be no need to think of that position again for years. However, with no Soto, the right field spot is currently occupied by Starling Marte, who has seen his defensive game regress so much (fourth percentile outs above average in 2024) that he probably is better fit for the designated hitter spot.

Other top-of-the-market right field options consist of Anthony Santander and Teoscar Hernández. Each probably posses price tags outside what the Mets want to pay, not to mention, it remains to be seen how Santander, given his lackluster defense, would age. Other quality, cheaper options would be Michael Conforto (.759 OPS in 2024), Alex Verdugo (great defender, low chase rate), Max Kepler (.816 OPS in 2023), among others.

Designated hitter is the last spot that has some question marks currently. Some type of platoon with right-handed hitter Starling Marte would make sense. Marte was still very efficient at the plate in 2024 (74th percentile xwOBA, 94th percentile xBA) and would complement a left-handed hitter nicely. A Joc Peterson (.908 OPS in 2024) or Jesse Winker (career .841 OPS against right-handed pitchers) would both make a ton of sense.

The Mets also have some internal answers, albeit, the only left-handed hitter being Brett Baty. But, Ronny Mauricio is not exactly a star in the field and would likely fit better as a designated hitter. The Mets could also theoretically move Vientos to a full-time designated hitter role given how porous his defense is, but they would have to ensure both first and third base are filled elsewhere.

Final Thoughts

Despite the immense success the team had last year, the way that club was strategically put together by president of baseball operations, David Stearns, the Mets have a lot to do to come close to that 2024 success in 2025. The rotation is getting closer, but one more big fish is needed there, the bullpen still needs a few more external additions, and the lineup currently has two big questions looming over it with holes needing to be addressed.

Luckily, for the Mets, they have the richest owner in baseball, and for what seems like the first time in a while, a ton of room before they start getting too deep in another season of CBT penalties. As mentioned above, the Mets’ current payroll is way off where they were last year. Granted, they shouldn’t come close to that figure this year, but it just goes to show how much of a better spot the Mets are financially than last season at this time.

With all this in mind, and with one of the better baseball minds leading the way, Mets fans should be extremely exciting for what Winter Meetings, and beyond, hold for the Mets. With Winter Meetings on the doorstep, we should see the offseason pick up rapidly, and the Mets will be among the most active of teams.

The post Previewing the 2024 Winter Meeting; What Do The Mets Need? appeared first on Metsmerized Online.