ICC World Test Championship Final Qualification Scenario: Australia to India to South Africa to Sri Lanka, what each team needs to do

Team India’s massive 10-wicket loss to Australia in the ‘Pink Ball’ Test, the second game of their five-match series against Australia for the Border-Gavaskar Trophy (BGT) has put a big dent on their hopes of qualifying for their third successive World Test Championship (WTC) final. The WTC final for the 2023-25 cycle will take place at Lord’s next year.

As a result of their loss, Rohit Sharma’s side have slipped two places to third spot while Australia have climbed to the No. 1 spot. The loss comes on the back of their 3-0 whitewash at the hands of New Zealand last month, which gave a massive jolt to India’s chances.

Let’s take a look at ICC WTC Final qualification scenarios for all 10 teams after Australia’s 10-wicket win at the Adelaide Oval on Sunday…

1. Australia – 60.71 per cent of possible points

Remaining matches: India (home, 3 Tests), Sri Lanka (away, 2 Tests)

Best possible finish: 67.65 per cent

Defending WTC champions Australia and India have been fighting for the top spot on the WTC 2025 points table for a while now. Australia, who had regained the top spot after India’s series loss to New Zealand, slipped when they lost the first Test to India at Perth by 295 runs with India reaching the top again.

South Africa’s win in the first Test against Sri Lanka pushed them down to number three. However, a dominating win in the Pink-ball Test in Adelaide have propelled them to the top once again.

Pat Cummins-led side will also tour Sri Lanka next year for an additional two Tests, meaning they could theoretically draw 2-2 with India and stay in contention for a place in the final.

2. South Africa – 59.26 per cent of possible points

Remaining matches: Sri Lanka (home, 1 Test), Pakistan (home, 2 Tests)

Best possible finish: 69.44 per cent

The 2-0 whitewash of Bangladesh away from home was a huge boost for the Proteas. They have continued the final form with a big win over Sri Lanka in the first Test. This has helped them overtake Australia, New Zealand, and Sri Lanka to secure the second spot in the WTC Standings.

The next three games are extremely important for SA, for if they continue this winning run, they will be safely placed to make the WTC final irrespective of how the other sides fare.

3. India – 57.29 per cent of possible points

Remaining matches: Australia (away, 3 Tests)

Best possible finish: 64.04 per cent

After a shocking 3-0 series whitewash at home in October against New Zealand which pushed them down a spot in the WTC table, India bounced back in the race for Lord’s title clash with a massive win in Australia in Perth.

An all-round display from the batters and the bowlers in Perth has rekindled India’s hopes for a third straight appearance in the WTC Final. However, their hopes were dashed when they suffered a 10-wicket loss at the hands of Australia in the second Test, which forced them to slip to No.3 in the standings.

It would not be easy but is not impossible as India need to win all of their three matches to ensure qualification.

India’s WTC final 2025 qualification scenarios explained

1.If India win 4-1: With three matches remaining, India can’t afford to lose any game from here. To qualify for the WTC final 2025 without depending on others, three wins will give India 146 points which would take them to… pic.twitter.com/jWgnXCVV99

— Md Tamanne (@Tamanne_Er) December 9, 2024

4. Sri Lanka – 50 per cent of possible points

Remaining matches: South Africa (away, 1 Test), Australia (home, 2 Tests)

Best possible finish: 61.54 per cent

A stunning win over England in the third Test in England followed by a 2-0 whitewash of New Zealand at home has been the highlight of Sri Lanka’s recent returns, and SL headed to South Africa confidently.

But a big loss in Durban means that the Asian side needs to recalibrate their approach and bounce back in the second Test of the series. If Sri Lanka managed a surprise upset in the second Test at Port Elizabeth, it could still lead to a grandstand finish on home soil with the top two spots potentially still to be decided in the final series of the cycle.

5. England – 45.24 per cent of possible points

Remaining matches: New Zealand (away, 1 Test)

Best possible finish: 47.73 per cent

While a rampant home season had sparked some hopes for England, successive defeats in Pakistan has seen them drop out of contention for a spot at next year’s final.

6. New Zealand – 44.23 per cent of possible points

Remaining matches: England (home, 1 Test)

Best possible finish: 48.21 per cent

A historic series sweep in India had bolstered the Black Caps hopes of claiming a second WTC title but their chances took a severe hit following back-to-back massive losses to Ben Stokes-led England in the first Test in Christchurch and second Test in Wellington.

New Zealand’s hopes were further dented after they were penalised three points for a slow over-rate in the first Test. As a result, they dropped to 5th in the standings, having previously shared fourth place with Sri Lanka.

Even if they win the remaining Test, New Zealand cannot breach the all-important 60 per cent point percentage mark on the WTC table.

7. Pakistan – 33.33 per cent of possible points

Remaining matches: South Africa (away, 2 Tests), West Indies (home, 2 Tests)

Best possible finish: 52.38 per cent

Pakistan have won back-to-back Tests under new coach Jason Gillespie, but remain out of contention of reaching the final with a total of six teams ahead of them on the standings. While Pakistan could still win their remaining four Tests and finish with a percentage as high as 52.38 percent, this is unlikely to be enough to finish in the top two places on the standings.

They next play South Africa at the end of December and then will welcome West Indies home for two Tests in January next year.

8. Bangladesh – 31.25 per cent of possible points

Remaining matches: Nil

Best possible finish: 31.25 per cent

The Asian side finished their campaign on a high with an impressive 101-run victory over the West Indies that helped them off the bottom of the WTC standings. While it has been a relatively disappointing cycle for Bangladesh, they will be buoyed by the fact they won three Test matches away from home that included a series sweep over Pakistan earlier this year.

9. West Indies – 24.24 per cent of possible points

Remaining matches: Pakistan (away, 2 matches)

Best possible finish: 35.90 per cent

The highlight so far of the West Indies season was their win over Australia in Brisbane in early 2024, while their recent triumph over Bangladesh at home in the first Test showed what they are capable of when producing their best cricket.

A batting collapse in the first innings of the second Test against Bangladesh proved too much for the West Indies to overturn as they fell to a 101-run loss in Jamaica to drop to ninth place on the standings, but they at least get the chance to finish on a high with a two-match series in Pakistan early in 2025.