Guardians Rumors: The Josh Naylor to Cubs Trade That Makes Sense

The Cubs and Reds are sniffing around Josh Naylor

Josh Naylor is being mentioned in trade rumors involving the Chicago Cubs and Cincinnati Reds - is there smoke to this hot stove fire?

First, let me be clear that there is no reason to believe that a Josh Naylor trade is close or even that a trade is likely to happen. This is rumor season and if a reporter gets word that two teams have discussed a player, they will tweet it out even if the discussion was “Hey, how about...?” “NO!”. But, it does make sense that the Guardians would be more willing to entertain a Naylor trade or a Lane Thomas trade (as has also been rumored) because both players are on their final year of team control and there isn’t any particular reason to think either will extend this offseason to remain in Cleveland. Particularly in Naylor’s case, the team has interesting bats to step up in his absence (David Fry, Jhonkensy Noel, Kyle Manzardo, Juan Brito and CJ Kayfus). But, the team won’t give up the first-time all-star who hit 30 home runs and put up a 118 wRC+ while handling first base cheaply. I also don’t believe they will make a deal involving giving Naylor up for prospects while returning a roster that has just made the ALCS. The Guardians will have to get a piece that helps the major league roster NOW to pull the trigger on a Naylor move, in my best understanding of the situation.

So, what kind of deal would make sense? First, let’s take a look at the Cubs. The news seems to be that the Cubs are interested in trading an outfielder to free up some money, likely either Seiya Suzuki (who would have to waive a no-trade clause) or Cody Bellinger (who has a player option for $26 million in 2026). So, from all we know, one factor important for the Cubs is saving money. If Suzuki would waive a no-trade clause to go to Cleveland, then sign me up for the 2 years and $38 million he is owed and trade Josh Naylor and the Cubs’ pick of our good relievers not named Clase or Cade for Suzuki. Toss in a decent prospect too, if needed. But, without knowing if Suzuki would waive his clause to go to another Great Lakes city or not, I can’t speculate too much further on this deal. I’m also skeptical the team will be fine with the $38 million, even though that seems more than worth it, to me, to solve right field for a couple years.

I’d also be very into a Naylor and Bellinger swap (again, the Guardians probably including a decent reliever to make this work), especially looking to get Bellinger in centerfield where he seems likely to be average to slightly above average. But, Bellinger is set to get up to $53 million over these next two years, assuming he goes in on 2026’s player option. I honestly don’t see any way the Guardians are taking that kind of money on. I want to believe that if they believe Bellinger can be an above-average centerfielder, then it could be possible. But, I would have to see it to believe it, so I’m leaving this idea alone.

The deal that makes sense to me is to trade Josh Naylor for Jameson Taillon. Taillon is due $36 million over 2025-2026. Naylor is due approximately $14 million for 2025, so the Guardians only take on an additional $4 million for 2025, but the Cubs save $22 million over the next two years AND get Naylor’s offensive production. The Cubs also have some good rotation depth and can be players in a deep free agent market for other pitchers if they like. In Taillon, the Guardians who has averaged 165 innings a season over the past three years with a 3.98 ERA and a groundball rate around 40%. It’s a solid #4 profile with some #3 upside if he leans into getting groundballs that the Guardians’ excellent defensive infield can handle. The Guardians desperately need a proven innings-eater who can give them a chance to win games every time through the rotation to go with some of their higher upside young arms, so this is a rare case where two playoff-hopefuls could help each other out. Additionally, $18 million if the Guardians can get something like the 2 fWAR production Taillon provided the Cubs in 2024 is a better price than anything the team is likely to find on the free agent market.

Two important caveats: this trade relies on the Guardians firmly believing in the abilities of Fry (when healthy), Noel, Manzardo, Brito and Kayfus (if needed) stepping into the role of a middle-of-the-order bat. I am not sure how the team feels about that, nor am I sure they should feel confident about this plan if they indeed do consider it an option. Secondly, if we go by projections, the Guardians shouldn’t make this trade because Steamer sees Taillon throwing 168 innings (good!) but to the tune of a 4.49 FIP (bad). A LOT relies on how feasible the Guardians believe it is to encourage Taillon to lean on a sinker that measures very well in run-value (17.1 runs above average for his career) he throws only 10% of the time and a slider that also measures well in run-value (+16.4 runs for his career) AND Stuff+ metrics (104) that he throws only 15% of the time. If the team projects him as a guy who can fully transition into an innings-eating groundball artist, he would be well-suited as a bet to beat his projections and even reach #3 starter-type production with Gimenez, Rocchio, and Jose fielding behind him.

I really don’t see a clear fit for a Naylor trade to the Reds. Maybe it’s the Guardians believing in a T.J. Friedl bounceback and the Reds liking some combination of Naylor and major league ready prospects in exchange for their starting centerfielder, but it all seems a bit far-fetched to me. The Reds don’t have the pitching depth or spending ability the Cubs have, so I am leaving further speculation here to other sites. We do know that Cleveland’s and Cincinatti’s front offices love to trade together, so anything is possible here.

When it’s all said and done, I expect both Josh Naylor and Lane Thomas to be in Cleveland for Opening Day. However, given the prices that are being tagged to starting pitchers in free agency and some interesting potential for Taillon to lean into his groundball-getting abilities, there is an outside chance to me that if the Cubs make Jameson Taillon available, something could be formed around Naylor for Taillon. We will see what happens in the days ahead.