Trade Analysis: Scouting the prospects dealt for Garrett Crochet

The top prospect heading to Chicago, Teel was the Red Sox first-round draft pick in 2023 at number 14 overall out of the University of Virginia. Teel hit .288/.386/.433 across Portland and Worcester this year with 13 home runs, 12 steals and 68 walks compared to 116 strikeouts in 505 plate appearances. Ranked fourth in the system prior to the trade, he is seen as at least a top 50 prospect nationally. Teel has a well-rounded skill set and a chance to be an asset on both sides of the ball. He has a hit-over-power profile, with an advanced approach and solid bat speed and approach metrics. He saw 3.97 pitchers per plate appearance last year and ran an 81% zone-contact rate and 24% chase rate, which are both average numbers. His quality of contact was good, but was the lowest of the system's "Big Four" prospects with a 33.3% hard-hit rate and 104.2 mph 90th percentile exit velocity. He was dominant against fastballs 92 or below, but did have issues with velocity and against secondary pitches. While he is unlikely to be a force offensively, there is a pathway to Teel getting to average hit and power grades, which makes him a very good prospect along with his strong chance to stick behind the plate.

Defense is where the questions lie with Teel. Last year, he was adjusting to catching with the one-knee setup and struggled at times with his receiving and framing. He graded out inconsistently in that area, and even though he is very athletic for a catcher, there were games where he struggled with blocking balls in the dirt as well. His arm strength is above-average, but he only threw out 20% of attempted base stealers last year, as he struggled with his footwork. Talking to evaluators, there is confidence he will be able to iron out those defensive inconsistencies, as he has elite makeup and the willingness to do whatever is necessary to succeed. Though his individual tool grades are mostly in the 50 to 55 range, as a catcher, that’s a potential regular given the state of the position. 

The fifth-ranked prospect in the system before the trade, Montgomery has yet to debut, but he is the player I would select as the one who could come back to hurt the Red Sox the most in this trade. Montgomery was the Red Sox' first-round pick in the 2024 draft, selected 12th overall, before signing for $5 million. During the college season, the Texas A&M outfielder was seen as a potential top-five pick, but he suffered a fractured ankle during the NCAA Super Regionals. That injury could have caused his stock to fall some when he was unable to work out with teams before the draft and there was some uncertainty about how he would recover from the injury. He did not play with the Red Sox after signing, but sources say his rehab was on track and he should be healthy and ready to go next spring. 

Because he still has yet to debut in pro ball, it is hard to project Montgomery, but the tools he showed as an amateur were tantalizing, making him a consensus top 75-or-so prospect in the game. He has plus power at least and produces high-end exit velocities, especially from the left side of the plate. It’s a power-over-hit profile, but he still will take a walk and make good swing decisions. He did have some contact trouble on pitches in the zone as an amateur and had noticeable platoon splits, hitting only .224 from the right side as a junior compared to .361 from the left side. He most likely will end up in an outfield corner, but he is a good athlete and has a cannon of an arm, getting up to 97 on the mound when he pitched during his first two seasons. There is some uncertainty regarding how he will return from injury, but his raw tools are loud, and if he can make consistent contact he has the highest ceiling of any of the players the Red Sox gave up in the trade. 

Meidroth was drafted in the fourth round of the 2022 Draft, but has dramatically outplayed that draft position so far and was the eighth-ranked prospect in the system in our end-of-season rankings. He signed for only $272,500, but immediately showed an elite approach even though he does not look the part, listed a generous 5-foot-9 and 170 pounds. In 2024, he spent the entire season in Worcester, hitting .293/.437/.400 with 7 home runs, 13 steals, and 105 walks compared to 75 strikeouts. Meidroth’s stats may have looked even better if he had not suffered some sort of arm injury in mid-August that at least caused him discomfort when throwing and limited him to playing designated hitter. That injury did seem to impact him somewhat at the plate, as even though his triple slash was similar, his strikeout rate skyrocketed from 10.8% from the beginning of the season to August 18 to 21.9% from August 22 onward. 

Contact skills and an elite approach are Meidroth's calling cards, as he excels in both areas. He saw 4.41 pitchers per plate appearance last year, most in the Red Sox system for players who spent the full year at full-season affiliates, and his zone-contact rate of 92% and chase rate of 17% were both second behind Mickey Gasper using the same criteria and a minimum of 40 plate appearances. We knew Meidroth could get on base, but the concern was always that more advanced pitchers would challenge him since he was unlikely to make them play. His hard-hit rate and 90th percentile exit velocity improved last season, jumping from 30.5% and 100.5 mph in Portland in 2023 to 33.1% and 101.6 mph in Worcester in 2024. Those numbers lag behind other top prospects in the system, but as the season went on, evaluators became more bullish on his future outlook at the plate even while acknowledging that power is unlikely to ever be a major part of his game.

Defensively, Meidroth split time between second base, third base, and shortstop last year, and while he will never be a standout defender, he is reliable and looked capable of playing average defense at all three positions. He still profiles best at second, but he showed enough to be able to play on the left side of the infield in a pinch despite having more of a fringe-average defensive profile at third or short if he had to play either position long-term. His arm is also on the fringy side, but it is accurate and also should be passable in short stints on the left side. 

Meidroth does not have the type of ceiling that is likely to come back to haunt the Red Sox, but he could be a solid big leaguer for a long time. There is potential for him to become an everyday regular if he can continue to make gains with his ability to impact the baseball, but it is more likely he will be best suited for a utility role. Given Boston's MLB roster construction and the prospects ahead of him in the infield, however, he was unlikely to get a chance in the big leagues this year and looked headed for a second full season in Triple-A. Without much left to prove there, he fits a lot better with the White Sox, where he could get a chance in the big leagues either out of camp or shortly into the season. 

  

Gonzalez is a divisive prospect, as he can look like a completely different pitcher from outing to outing. He is frustratingly inconsistent, but at his best will show premium stuff. Overall Gonzalez’s line in 2024 was rough, but it is somewhat deceiving, as he was a lot better after moving to a hybrid piggyback/short starter role over the summer, before ramping back up to 4- to 5-inning stints to end the year. From April 9 to June 9, in 10 games, he had an 8.00 ERA in 36 innings with 36 strikeouts and 26 walks, while opponents hit .237/.385/.370 against him. In his next two outings, Gonzalez came out of the bullpen, followed by three starts in which he was capped at three innings each. These shorter appearances started a stretch during which he was much more successful, as from June 15 through the end of the season, he had a 2.27 ERA in 47.2 innings with 56 strikeouts to 20 walks, with opponents hitting just .166/.260.239 against him.

Gonzalez is undersized but will show plus velocity from the right side, sitting 94-97 mph. He mixes in three secondary pitches, a curveball at 77-80 mph, changeup at 87-88 mph, and a cut-slider at 86-88 mph. He needs to drastically improve his command and control with his fastball and find consistency with it, but it is a potential plus pitch. His curveball, which is his best secondary, will flash above-average potential giving him an intriguing two-pitch mix. His other two pitches lag behind, though his cut-slider is still a relatively new offering and could improve with more reps. Because of his size, occasional struggles throwing strikes, and lack of an average third pitch right now, he is best suited for a bullpen role long-term. He was added to the 40-man roster last offseason and will likely burn his second option this year, so his timeline does not really fit what the Red Sox need in that spot as they try to contend this season. The White Sox, on the other hand, can be more patient with him given where they are in their rebuild, and they can wait to see if his natural talent shines through and if he makes the necessary improvements to reach his ceiling. 

You have to give something to get something, and I think that sums up this trade perfectly. After the trade was announced, several evaluators from other teams I spoke to all had a similar opinion that they understood the trade for both sides and that it could help both teams going forward. The Red Sox paid a high price for Crochet, giving up two top 100 national prospects in Teel and Montgomery, but they did not have to dip into their top three prospects in Roman Anthony, Kristian Campbell, and Marcelo Mayer or their young major league players in Triston Casas and Wilyer Abreu. Keeping those guys around allows the team to continue to build for the future with high-end young players under team control while maintaining the flexibility to pursue additional trades for basically anyone on the market should a player of interest become available. Furthermore, Crochet’s age fits well with the team the Red Sox currently have, and he raises the ceiling of their rotation immensely while, for now, only taking a small salary this year, giving them more flexibility to potentially pursue other moves in free agency—at least until he potentially signs an extension. 

Giving up Teel is tough, as he had the chance to be the Red Sox catcher of the future, but Connor Wong is still a serviceable player and we have seen catchers make drastic improvements with their receiving and framing over the course of an off-season. If he can do that (or if the Red Sox add a solid catcher to complement him), the Red Sox are in a fine position to withstand losing Teel as their catcher of the future. 

The most interesting part of the trade, and what will likely determine how it will be viewed in the future, is how Montgomery develops. He brings risk with this ankle injury and contact concerns, but he has the potential to develop into an easy regular in right field with impact potential at the plate. Boston, however, is very deep in the corner outfield spots, so it is understandable why they would be willing to move him. Meidroth and Gonzalez also both have major league potential, but they were unlikely to get the same opportunity in Boston that they will in Chicago given what the Red Sox already have at their respective positions.