Analyzing Royals Fall League pitcher metrics

A few Royals arms stood out.

Welcome back reader. If you are reading this, you’ve probably already read the earlier entry breaking down Royals hitter performances in the Arizona Fall League. If you haven’t, go back and read it! We’re back today to do the same for pitchers. Five pitchers from the Royals organization took the field for the Surprise Saguaros. None of these guys are as flashy of a name as Jac Caglianone, but several could contribute to the big league club as soon as next spring.

A few resources for reference: this link provides context for Statcast metrics (ie. what is league average?), while this link explains sample sizes and how many batters faced are needed for metrics to “stabilize.”

Luinder Avila

Originally signed by the Royals out of Venezuela in 2018, Avila has been used almost exclusively as a starter, with all 20 of his appearances in the minors this season coming in the rotation. He spent most of the season in the rotation for Double-A Northwest Arkansas, missing a month and a half with injury but otherwise making 19 starts before getting a start in Triple-A Omaha at the end of the season. He was mostly a starter for the Saguaros as well, pitching multiple innings in all of his appearances (starters in the Fall League generally don’t go more than three innings or so). Avila tossed 14.2 innings with a 3.07 ERA, striking out 17 against eight walks. He also threw two scoreless innings in the championship game.

In a high-offense AFL environment, Avila was one of the better multi-inning arms. Hitters really struggled to elevate against his stuff, hitting the ball on the ground 62.8% of the time and only managing a 7.0% barrel rate. He struggled at times to throw strikes and couldn’t consistently get hitters to chase, but he did demonstrate surprising bat-missing ability. Avila garnered a 37.6% whiff rate, which would have been by far the best mark among big league starters this season. Having struck out just 20.8% of opposing batters across his minor league career, he punched out 25.8% in the fall league.

Avila’s pitch data clashes with the scouting report FanGraphs had on him last year. In the Fall League, he showed a five-pitch mix with fairly evenly-distributed usage — he throws each of his pitches at least 13.9% of the time. Against right-handed batters, he mostly threw a sinker that sits 93-96 and a slider at 82-84. He also threw plenty of cutters at 93-96 and mixed in a curveball at 81-84 that he regularly threw for strikes. Against lefties, Avila worked mostly with cutters and a hard 89-94 changeup. He also used a healthy diet of sliders and sinkers against them with the occasional curve. Statcast did not register any four-seamers and his curveball, which FanGraphs graded as his best pitch, was his least-used offering. Avila’s fastballs serve to coax groundballs, while his slider was his best pitch for missing bats as primarily a chase pitch.

While Avila has a long track record of eating innings in the minors, his numbers there have mostly been unremarkable. He did post a career-best strikeout rate in 2024, so maybe he is figuring out how to miss more bats. His stuff is solid enough but his command will likely never be good enough to be more than a back-end starter. Avila just turned 23 in August and has room on his frame to fill out, so perhaps there’s more in the tank in terms of stuff. He was added to the 40-man roster this offseason and will likely start the 2025 season at Triple-A Omaha, where he’ll be just a few pitcher injuries away from being called up.

Brandon Johnson

No image as Getty decided he’s not cool enough for one I guess.

The closer for the 2022 National Champion Ole Miss Rebels, Johnson spent 2024 striking out a bunch of batters at High-A Quad Cities and Double-A while cutting his walk rate. He was generally a one-inning reliever but would sometimes come in for more than three outs. In AFL play, he had only one appearance that was more than one inning. Johnson started strong but had a few rough outings down the stretch, finishing with a 9.35 ERA in 8.2 innings. He struck out 11 batters and walked four.

It’s surprising that Johnson has struggled with walks in the lower minors as he threw strikes at a solid clip in the AFL, including a first-pitch strike rate nearing 70%. It’s control rather than command, however, as he didn’t tend to locate his pitches where they’d play the best (more on that in a moment). His pitches didn’t typically miss bats in the zone, but he garnered a solid 28% whiff rate and an above-average chase rate. His mistake pitches in the zone tended to get hit hard.

Johnson leans hard on his four-seamer, a 93-96 mph offering with good ride but velo fluctuation — he hit 96 regularly early on but sat more 93-94 over his last few outings. It’s a swing-and-miss pitch at the top of the zone, but he struggled to consistently locate it up there and paid the price several times when he left it down. He also mixes in a cutter at 85-87 and a slider at 84-86. He threw his four-seamer about half the time against right-handed batters with a nearly even split of sliders and cutters. Against lefties it was almost entirely heat, throwing the four-seamer almost 80% of the time with sliders comprising the majority of the remainder. Johnson’s cutter was a much better pitch for him against same-handed batters than the slider, which tended to stay up. The slider missed bats against lefties but also got barreled up for a homer twice (those two barrels were hit by Ethan Salas, a top-10 prospect in baseball, and Josue Briceño, who won AFL MVP). His other barrel allowed came to a right-handed hitter, also on a slider.

Racking up a 29.7% strikeout rate in his minor league career, Johnson has a long track record of missing bats. I question if his stuff is good enough to keep it going as he moves up the minor league ladder, though he did maintain a 29.3% K-rate in Double-A. Achieving even 40-grade command, or at least just consistently throwing his four-seamer up, would greatly aid that. As it is, he has demonstrated enough swing-and-miss stuff that he’ll probably see a big league roster at some point, but Johnson would need to level up his stuff or command considerably to be more than an up-and-down middle reliever.

Chazz Martinez

I know this is him from college whatever.

Drafted by Pittsburgh out of a junior college in 2021, Martinez elected not to sign and transferred to Oklahoma for the 2022 season, when he’d be a draft-eligible sophomore. He had a disappointing season, losing his rotation spot in conference play and ending up being drafted even later than he had been in 2021. He spent all of 2024 in High-A, racking up strikeouts but also struggling with walks. He struggled with command in AFL play, posting a 10.50 ERA while walking six batters in six innings and striking out only six.

Even when a guy struggles, I try to find some positives from their underlying metrics. Unfortunately, it’s difficult to do so for Martinez. He didn’t really miss bats in or out of the zone, hitters didn’t go fishing much, and they hit the ball hard when they made contact. The less said here, the better.

Martinez has pared down his arsenal and seen his stuff back up since college. In 2022, he was 92-96 with his fastball at the top of a four-pitch arsenal. In AFL play he was strictly slider-sinker with about a 60-40 split between the two. The sinker sat 90-92, topping out at 94, while the slider is a big bender at 76-80. He used his sinker a bit more against lefties, but leaned mostly on his slider against batters from either side of the plate. Martinez didn’t locate either pitch particularly well or rack up whiffs with them.

Turning 25 in January and having yet to pitch above High-A, it’s hard to see a path to the majors for Martinez.

Shane Panzini

A prep arm drafted in 2021, Panzini spent the entire 2024 season in High-A. He began the year in the rotation before missing a couple months with injury. When he returned he was deployed in a multi-inning relief role. He was walk-prone and had home run issues at times, but was mostly a steady performer with a few blowup outings tanking his numbers. He had a couple of those in AFL play as well, posting a 5.74 ERA in 15.2 innings with 15 strikeouts and seven walks.

Control was an issue for Panzini as he struggled to hit the zone, particularly on first pitches, and didn’t get enough chase to make up for it. He didn’t miss a whole lot of bats either, even when he did get chases. On the bright side, he didn’t get hit terribly hard and rolled up a solid 47.8% groundball rate.

Panzini’s arsenal starts with a four-seamer that sat 92-96, which he used about half the time. He otherwise throws a cutter at 88-93 and a 78-82 mph curveball. He’ll throw any pitch to any batter. He threw exactly 50% four-seamers against righties with about twice as many cutters as curves. Against lefties he moved away from the cutter, favoring more four-seamers and curves. Panzini threw strikes with the four-seamer and the cutter played quite well, but the curveball neither missed bats nor hit the zone often.

With three full seasons of pro ball under his belt, Panzini’s development has stalled. His velo has not ticked up since the draft and the secondary pitches haven’t progressed. He just turned 23 so I’m not totally quitting on him, but it’s probably time to see if he can find success in a more limited relief role. Panzini is not on the 40-man roster and is eligible for the Rule 5 draft.

Anthony Simonelli

The oldest Royals prospect sent to Surprise, Simonelli has steadily climbed the minor league ladder over the last few seasons in a multi-inning relief role, finishing 2024 in Triple-A. His strikeouts took a leap this season and he threw 57.1 very strong innings in Double-A before being promoted. He was utilized exclusively in single-inning relief for the Saguaros and dominated as one of six pitchers not to allow an earned run in Fall League play. Simonelli struck out eight batters while allowing just nine total baserunners in eight innings.

No Royals prospect was a bigger victim of ballparks not equipped with Hawkeye as three of Simonelli’s eight innings didn’t have data. This data encompasses just ten batted ball events and 75 pitches. It was as dominant as you’d expect for a guy that didn’t surrender an earned run. Just one of those ten batted balls was hit hard and half of them were hit on the ground. Simonelli didn’t get a ton of chase but batters rarely made contact when they did. He poured in first-pitch strikes 83.3% of the time and also racked up an astonishing 34.8% whiff rate on pitches in the strike zone. The only nit to pick in this small sample was his overall zone rate, which was a bit below average at 45.3%.

Simonelli throws a four-seamer that sits 92-95 about half the time. Even at that velo, he was getting plenty of whiffs with the pitch while throwing it for strikes. An 82-85 mph sweeper and 87-90 mph changeup make up the bulk of the rest of his offerings, though he also mixed in a cutter at 89-90 about 5% of the time. He threw the sweeper 49% of the time against right-handed batters with mostly four-seamers otherwise. Against lefties he threw a ton of four-seamers while throwing the changeup as a chase pitch.

Three years after being selected on day three of the MLB Draft, Simonelli is on the doorstep of the big leagues. He was not placed on the 40-man roster and is Rule 5 eligible. While I wouldn’t be shocked if another team took a chance on him, he’s probably not even the most likely player in the organization to get picked. Who knows though, maybe some scout saw him in Arizona and is trying to convince his team to pick up Simonelli. If he goes unselected, he should start next season in Omaha and could find his way to the majors.