NFL straight-up picks, Week 15: Almost no faith in the Seahawks or Steelers in massive matchups
Week 14 was another slate of quiet competence from our game-picking panel. Three of our seven members landed at 11-2 or better in the final bye week of the 2024 NFL season.
Now we enter the final stretch. Four weeks and 64 games. Some will be battles between teams jockeying for playoff position. Others will be slogs between two rosters waiting for the vacation possibilities of January. Some will be a combination of both.
That makes Week 15’s games difficult to figure out. We’ve got iron sharpening iron in battles between playoff hopefuls when the Pittsburgh Steelers meet the Philadelphia Eagles and Green Bay Packers travels to face the Seattle Seahawks. We’ve also got slop piled on slop in a Jacksonville Jaguars-New York Jets showdown and whatever shame grows from the seeds of Dallas Cowboys-Carolina Panthers.
So who’ll win? Let’s talk it out. I ended 2023 as Pickwatch’s top expert in a field of hundreds. In fact, I’m now doing some side work in Pickwatch’s VIP Discord channels if you want to talk more about these games.
Joining me for 2024 is a six-person panel ranging from FTW editors (Charles Curtis, Mary Clarke) to betting analysts (Prince Grimes) to NFL writers (Robert Zeglinski, Andrew Joseph and Meghan Hall). Here are our Week 15 picks:
| Game | Christian | Robert | Charles |
| Rams at 49ers | Rams? | Rams | Rams |
| Jets at Jaguars | Jets? | Jets | Jets |
| Cowboys at Panthers | Panthers | Panthers | Cowboys |
| Commanders at Saints | Commanders | Commanders | Commanders |
| Ravens at Giants | Ravens | Ravens | Ravens |
| Chiefs at Browns | Chiefs | Chiefs | Chiefs |
| Bengals at Titans | Bengals | Bengals | Bengals |
| Dolphins at Texans | Texans? | Dolphins | Texans |
| Steelers at Eagles | Eagles? | Steelers | Eagles |
| Colts at Broncos | Broncos | Broncos | Broncos |
| Buccaneers at Chargers | Chargers | Chargers | Chargers |
| Bills at Lions | Lions | Bills | Lions |
| Patriots at Cardinals | Cardinals | Cardinals | Cardinals |
| Packers at Seahawks | Packers? | Seahawks | Packers |
| Bears at Vikings | Vikings | Vikings | Vikings |
| Falcons at Raiders | Falcons | Falcons | Falcons |
| Last week: | 11-2 | 9-4 | 10-3 |
| Year to date: | 144-64 (.692) | 135-73 (.649) | 141-67 (.678) |
and:
| Game | Mary | Andrew | Prince | Meg |
| Rams at 49ers | Rams | Rams | 49ers | 49ers |
| Jets at Jaguars | Jets | Jets | Jets | Jaguars |
| Cowboys at Panthers | Panthers | Cowboys | Panthers | Panthers |
| Commanders at Saints | Commanders | Commanders | Commanders | Commanders |
| Ravens at Giants | Ravens | Ravens | Ravens | Ravens |
| Chiefs at Browns | Chiefs | Chiefs | Chiefs | Chiefs |
| Bengals at Titans | Bengals | Bengals | Bengals | Bengals |
| Dolphins at Texans | Texans | Texans | Texans | Texans |
| Steelers at Eagles | Eagles | Eagles | Eagles | Eagles |
| Colts at Broncos | Broncos | Broncos | Broncos | Colts |
| Buccaneers at Chargers | Chargers | Bucs | Chargers | Chargers |
| Bills at Lions | Lions | Lions | Lions | Lions |
| Patriots at Cardinals | Cardinals | Cardinals | Cardinals | Cardinals |
| Packers at Seahawks | Packers | Packers | Packers | Packers |
| Bears at Vikings | Vikings | Vikings | Vikings | Vikings |
| Falcons at Raiders | Falcons | Falcons | Falcons | Falcons |
| Last week: | 11-2 | 12-1 | 10-3 | 10-3 |
| Year to date: | 130-63 (.674) | 134-61 (.687) | 138-70 (.663) | 114-51 (.691) |
Since our editing software occasionally struggles to make these picks super clear, here they are in an easier to read (but impossible to cut and paste) jpg:
Let’s break down three games based on what I do and don’t like.
Easiest game to pick: Minnesota Vikings (-6) over the Chicago Bears
Matt Krohn-Imagn Images
Why I like this pick:
Picking the Baltimore Ravens over the New York Giants felt like cheating. Instead, let’s look at the team I thought could bounce back after making Thomas Brown interim head coach and instead gained five yards of total offense in the first half against the San Francisco 49ers. Now Caleb Williams has to face a significantly better defense.
Why I don’t like this pick:
The Bears remain a talented team that adds up to way less than the sum of its parts. They have a top 10 passing defense that should be able to put up more of a fight than the Atlanta Falcons did in Minneapolis last week. Sam Darnold is flying high after last week’s five touchdown performance; a letdown performance may loom.
Last week: 1-0
2024 to date: 11-3 (.786)
Hardest favorite to back: Green Bay Packers (-2.5) over the Seattle Seahawks
John Fisher/Getty Images
Why I like this pick:
The Packers have only lost to the NFC’s best teams this season (Philadelphia Eagles, Detroit Lions and Minnesota Vikings). The Seahawks are good, but not quite at that level. Seattle’s four-game win streak has come over three teams with a combined 20 percent chance to make the playoffs, per ESPN. The Seahawks best win, currently, is over a debuting Bo Nix and the Denver Broncos in Week 1.
Plus, Toyotas are on sale, and we know how much Jordan Love enjoys that.
Jordan Love, Weeks 1-10: 0.103 EPA/play, 18th in composite QB rank, 88.2 passer rating, 15 TDs, 10 INTs, 7.6 yards/att
/Toyotathon begins, Nov. 15
Jordan Love, Weeks 11-14: 0.438 EPA/play, THIRD in composite QB rank, 118.2 rating, 6 TDs, 1 INT, 10.3 yards/att pic.twitter.com/BjcdyVoL19
— Christian D'Andrea (@TrainIsland) December 10, 2024
Why I don’t like this pick:
The Packers haven’t won in Seattle since 2008 and just twice all time. Zach Charbonnet impressed last week and while the Green Bay run defense is better than it’s been in recent years it remains a barely scabbed over wound that could be crumbled apart by the right tailback. Revived retread quarterbacks make up 75 percent of the Packers’ losses this season and now they get Geno Smith.
Last week: 1-0
2024 to date: 8-6 (.571)
Upset pick of the week: Los Angeles Rams (+2.5) over the San Francisco 49ers
Kirby Lee-Imagn Images
Why I like this pick:
Matthew Stafford meticulously picked apart the league’s 14th-ranked passing defense in Week 14 and now gets No. 12. The Bills couldn’t get to the veteran quarterback and the Niners have a similarly average pressure rate this season (34 percent vs. 32 percent). San Francisco may be down to its fourth-string running back in an offense that needs ground game efficiency to create space downfield and the run-after-catch wizardry that has propped up middling QBs throughout the Kyle Shanahan era. The 49ers best home win this season is over… the Bears?
Why I don’t like this pick:
San Francisco absolutely thrashed Chicago last week, leading for roughly 57 minutes of an hour-long game. The rest of the Rams’ 2024 suggests last week’s explosion is not sustainable. The Niners are a cornered animal thanks to their slim playoff hopes and a tough finishing schedule, which suggests Shanahan is gonna pull out some new wrinkles that could take Los Angeles by surprise.
Last week: 1-0
2024 to date: 4-10 (.286)