Inside Connolly and Ocasio-Cortez’s race to lock down votes for top Oversight Democratic job

With days to go until House Democrats decide who gets top committee spot, Reps. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez of New York and Gerry Connolly of Virginia are racing to lock down votes to lead their party on the Oversight and Accountability panel.

Many Democrats saw Ocasio-Cortez as having the upper hand heading into next week, but both Connolly and Ocasio-Cortez’s camps are confident of their chances, with Connolly’s supporters saying they will have the support of a majority of the caucus and the Steering Committee. Ocasio-Cortez also has a team working to whip votes in her favor, said a person granted anonymity to discuss her operation.

The powerful Steering and Policy Committee will convene on Monday to debate and vote on recommendations to the full caucus for the committee leadership positions. Then, the full caucus will vote Tuesday morning on the committee contenders. The caucus generally follows the steering panel’s recommendations.

Connolly’s supporters believe they have roughly 130 yes or lean yes votes, according to a House Democrat granted anonymity to discuss the Virginia lawmaker’s whip count. There are 215 members of the Democratic Caucus next Congress. The House Democrat added that they were “confident” Connolly had “locked up” both a majority of the Steering Committee and the full caucus.

“Gerry has the support of a majority of the Democratic Caucus. We are confident he will be the top Democrat on the House Oversight Committee, and I think he will be very good at that job,” said a senior Democratic aide close to Connolly’s whipping process.

Ocasio-Cortez and her allies, meanwhile, have been having conversations with a broad cross-section of the caucus as she tries to rally support for her bid. She and Connolly made closed-door presentations to the Democratic Caucus’ power centers — the tri-caucus of affinity groups and the ideological caucuses — and they’ve also quietly approached their fellow lawmakers on the House floor as they laid out their vision for the panel. The recent backing of key Democratic constituencies and belief that they have the backing of most current Oversight Committee members has bolstered the confidence of Ocasio-Cortez’s allies. Democrats see the high-profile panel as a foil to President-elect Donald Trump and his allies.

The race in many ways is a test of how far Democrats will go as they face a pent-up urge to make sweeping generational changes within the caucus, a yearslong push that threatened to boil over post-election. Democrats don’t have term limits for their panel heads, leading to grumbling among younger Democrats whose paths upward have been stifled.

Top Democratic leaders are all publicly professing neutrality in the ranking member contests and say they’ll let the caucus work its will. But former leaders aren’t bound by the same concerns.

Connolly has a powerful backer in his corner: Former Speaker Nancy Pelosi has been privately stumping for Connolly, a longtime ally, and making calls on his behalf, according to three people familiar with the situation. She’s also been boosting her fellow Californians Rep. Jared Huffman for the Natural Resources Committee and Rep. Jim Costa for the Agriculture Committee. Punchbowl News earlier reported the Pelosi outreach.

Democrats mounted challenges to committee leaders who had faced questions about their attendance and ability to serve as ranking members amid health struggles. Rep. Jerry Nadler of New York stepped out of the Judiciary race, and Rep. Raúl Grijalva of Arizona also ended his committee bid. Rep. David Scott of Georgia has stayed in the race to be the top Agriculture Committee Democrat despite strong challengers.

But Connolly supporters reject any comparison between their race against Ocasio-Cortez and the other Democrat-on-Democrat battles and specifically point to Pelosi’s support for him. The former speaker has been unflinching in her work over the past year to pressure Democrats she feels are no longer up to the job, including President Joe Biden and reportedly Nadler, to give up their positions.

Connolly said he was diagnosed with cancer in a statement after the election. In private conversations as he sought the top Oversight spot, the House Democrat said, Connolly has pledged to his colleagues that he will be transparent about the status of his diagnosis, including if it were to unexpectedly worsen.

Connolly ran for the top Oversight job last Congress, ultimately losing to Rep. Jamie Raskin of Maryland, who’s jumping to be the top Judiciary panel Democrat. A second House Democrat, granted anonymity to disclose private discussions, said Raskin has told colleagues he is staying neutral in the race to succeed him at least until the Judiciary race is settled.

Some ideological lines were drawn too, with Ocasio-Cortez winning the Progressive Caucus endorsement and Connolly winning the endorsement of the centrist New Democrat Coalition’s leadership. Ocasio-Cortez won the Congressional Hispanic Caucus’ endorsement as well, though at least one of its members — Rep. Linda Sanchez (D-Calif.), the chair of its political arm — is whipping for Connolly, according to the first House Democrat granted anonymity. Rep. Gregory Meeks (D-N.Y.) is also whipping for Connolly.