“Things have been set in motion that cannot be undone” – Gandalf

During the reign of President Ferdinand Marcos Jr.’s father, the crony media had a term for the sudden turn of weather, from rainy to a burst of sunshine, during presidential events. 

They called it “Marcos weather.” It was a thinly disguised projection of power; Marcos the father as omnipotent leader whose mere presence could part the clouds. 

As he nears his third year in office, President Marcos Jr. has so far enjoyed an extended spell of sunshine, interrupted by short bursts of rain and thunder. 

Surprisingly, he has remained untouched by earthshaking scandals and controversies that have rocked his predecessors early in their presidencies. 

For Cory Aquino, it was the existence of the so-called Kamag-anak Incorporated and several coup attempts. Fidel V. Ramos had to grapple with the Public Estate Authority-Amari controversy and talks of a powerful third party in his administration. 

Joseph Estrada’s first years in office were a mess of scandals that led to his impeachment and ouster through another military-backed people’s revolt. The ZTE scandal, the Oakwood mutiny, and Hello, Garci tested Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo’s grip on power. 

Benigno Aquino III had to deal with the Manila Hostage crisis, the pork barrel scandal involving members of Congress, and the aftermath of Super Typhoon Yolanda. Extrajudicial killings, the public shaming of critics, the arrest of former senator Leila de Lima, and the filing of a complaint before the International Criminal Court tainted Rodrigo Duterte’s first years in office.

In comparison, President Marcos Jr.’s mettle and political smarts have yet to be tested in crisis. That may have changed.

Dark clouds continue to hover over his presidency. There’s China and its aggressive intrusions into our territorial waters. The economy, although showing signs of recovery, remains vulnerable to climate change, fiscal priorities, and external factors. Public discontent over rising prices has shaken trust and confidence in his administration.

The third threat is closer, and more imminent. 

A tempestuous Vice President is determined to undermine his presidency at every turn. Her recent display of volatility has triggered a political crisis that will test the limits of the President’s patience, his political clout, and his resistance to the totalitarian temptation.

Executive powers for political ends

From the time of Corazon Aquino to Rodrigo Duterte, post-EDSA presidents have, at one time or another, exploited a vulnerable justice system, and employed the wide array of executive powers and the connivance of allies in the legislature to pursue political ends. 

The justifications were determined by circumstances: the defense of the State, crushing political threats, protecting cronies, disrupting the foundations of constitutional democracy. 

Compared to his predecessors, President Marcos Jr. has so far exhibited restraint in following this template of political warfare.

But Vice President Sara Duterte’s profanity-filled midnight confession of plotting a hit on him, the First Lady, and the Speaker could have prompted the President to realize, perhaps in a bedside epiphany, that nice guys finish last. 

On November 25, when the President spoke on a Facebook livestream and addressed the Vice President’s threats, we finally saw a Marcos. The presidential statement left no doubt that he was in charge. But is it goodbye, Mister Nice Guy?

Too nice?

The problem with the President, according to those who have known him for a long time, is that he is too nice. 

Since his landslide win in 2022, President Marcos Jr. has carried the burden of surname, office, and nation on his nice guy shoulders. His easygoing manner has been interpreted, unfairly says his allies, as indifference to the demands of work and the gravity of events surrounding him. 

For the Dutertes, it is a sign of weakness, one that they have never failed to point out.

The President, by most accounts, led a charmed, pampered life in the Palace until the shock of the 1986 EDSA Revolution and the years in exile. 

Their family name may have been discredited and reviled in the immediate years of democratic restoration, but the Marcoses were able to sustain a solid core of supporters among the populace and the political elite. Returning home, the wheels of the political comeback were set in motion. A seat in the House, the governorship, and the vice presidency. 

His heartbreaking loss to former vice president Leni Robredo proved to be a motivating, rather than disillusioning, factor for the grandest of all comebacks: a shot at the presidency.

That presidency, both vindication and political deliverance, is being challenged by his former running mate and her father, former president Rodrigo Duterte. 

The Vice President’s ascendance, should the President die in office or is incapacitated, would nullify the Marcos family’s decades-long effort to return to power; abort its restoration; and consign the family name once again to the dustbin of history.

The threat, therefore, must be neutralized, and in a manner that the Dutertes will understand. 

Power as poison

Power can be both wine and poison, intoxicating and deadly. 

Growing up literally in the corridors of power as a president’s only son, President Marcos Jr. witnessed how power can be wielded, and how easily it can slip one’s grasp, the fall made ignominious by exile. 

The President now finds himself in the same lofty pedestal as his late father, with almost the same array of powers at his disposal. 

But his hold on power, key to rebuilding the family name and establishing his own legacy, needs to be protected from the rampaging Dutertes.

There is no looking back for the President. Any action that can be seen as a softening of his tough guy stance or an accommodation of the Dutertes will be derided as wimping out. It will reinforce the weak leader framing of the Dutertes and encourage the unhinged and unpredictable Vice President to press the attack. 

But having tasted the intoxicating power once wielded by his father, will President Marcos Jr. be tempted to totally discard his nice guy persona and be a president in the mold of his father? 

Mindful of the lessons of history, and the deep personal hurt and humiliation of his family’s fall from grace, the President needs to tread carefully. 

He must be seen as a constitutionalist, upholding the rule of law and according the Vice President and her father due process. He must be seen as respectful of the independence of institutions. 

Punishing the Dutertes would trigger pockets of protests. He must deal with it as a uniter, a healer of political wounds. In the face of political uncertainty, he must project calm, a steady hand. Most of all, he must offer hope. 

Like his father, the President will face the judgment of history. He is hoping, perhaps, that judgment will be kinder to him than his father.

Unlike his predecessors, President Marcos Jr. enjoys the advantage of being the nation’s leader at a time when public discourse has been muddied by disinformation and attacks on the integrity of the press. 

With partisans denying the existence of realities other than their own, he can muster the propaganda machinery of government and his political and business allies to galvanize public opinion in his favor.  

For now, the President is basking in goodwill even from the most unlikely political segments. A former activist and detainee, reacting to Vice President Duterte’s midnight rant, told me, “I can’t believe I’m rooting for a Marcos!” Same here, pare. – Rappler.com

Joey Salgado is a former journalist, and a government and political communications practitioner. He served as spokesperson for former vice president Jejomar Binay.