Syria’s New Leader Will Bring Jihad Not Peace

While hope abounds that Mohammad al-Jolani, the new leader of Syria, will bring freedom to Syrians, an unearthed PBS Frontline documentary from 2021 indicates that he will more likely put himself on a collision course with Israel and the United States, and oppress his own people. Like the forces that emerged in Iran, Libya, Egypt (briefly with the Muslim Brotherhood), and Afghanistan, al-Jolani’s war will be a victory for jihad. (RELATED: The Familiar Themes of Hope and Delusion in Syria)

Diametrically Opposed to Israel

When interviewed, al-Jolani asserted that his family was “originally from the now-occupied Golan Heights,” and that his paternal grandfather was “displaced from the Golan in 1967 after the Israeli Zionist army entered the area [during the Six-Day War].” Born Ahmed al-Sharaa in 1982, he later changed his name to “Mohammad al-Jolani” (written by some as Mohammad al-Golani) as a reference to the Golan Heights. This origin story is critical to understanding al-Jolani’s worldview.

Israel had conquered much of the Golan Heights in a defensive war against Syria in the 1967 Six-Day War. In 1981, Israel formally annexed that land, and in 2019, the U.S. president recognized it as part of Israel. Right after the fall of Assad, again in an act of self-defense and given its immense strategic value, Israel took the rest of the Golan Heights — the buffer zone separating Israel from Syria which included the peak of Mt. Hermon.

Israel intends to stay on the summit of Mt. Hermon at least through the winter, and Israel’s Knesset has voted unanimously to double Israel’s population on the Golan Heights. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu stated that “[s]trengthening the Golan is strengthening the State of Israel, and it is especially important at this time. We will continue to hold onto it, make it flourish, and settle it.”

Al-Jolani recently announced that Israel has “no more excuses” to strike in Syria. Meanwhile, Israel continues to degrade the former military assets of the Assad regime, fearing that they could otherwise end up once again in enemy hands. Thus al-Jolani and Israel have diametrically opposed opinions of the future of the Golan (and Israel’s military objectives in Syria more broadly). Al-Jolani could be positioning himself on a collision course with Israel and the new Trump administration over the strategic territory. (RELATED: How Not to Think About Syria)

A Jihadist Leading al-Qaeda in Iraq

Al-Jolani’s recent statement that Syria post-Assad will be governed by Sharia law and will have morality police should surprise nobody given his jihadi past that was covered thoroughly in the documentary. He joined al-Qaeda in Iraq and its leader’s (Abu Musab al-Zarqawi) insurgency against the United States and coalition forces.

According to a CIA operative who was interviewed, al-Jolani was a commander of al-Zarqawi’s army and had “cell leadership.” While al-Jolani claimed in his interview that he opposed al-Zarqawi’s tactics of targeting civilians, he stayed on al-Zarqawi’s team regardless. He further chose to stay with al-Zarqawi after al-Zarqawi rebuffed requests from al-Qaeda to reduce targeting civilians in the spirit of public relations.

A Jihadist Leading al-Nusra Front, With Strong Ties to the Islamic State

As a leader of the al-Nusra Front, al-Jolani at first cultivated ties with the Islamic State. While he later had a falling out with the Islamic State, this break was over money, not ideology. Ideologically, the two groups were cut from the same cloth.

In his interview, al-Jolani admitted that he communicated to Islamic State leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi his thoughts on how to wage jihad in Syria (based on a 50-page document that al-Jolani wrote while in prison and that he maintained was “lost in Damascus”), and that he was paid by al-Baghdadi at a rate of $50,000-60,000 per month for 6 to 7 months.

The documentary also reveals that al-Jolani sent money back to al-Baghdadi, with one such payment being $2 million, and that al-Jolani did not appear to have a problem giving money to al-Baghdadi even though the latter was targeting civilians.

Al-Nusra’s behavior towards civilians further shines a light on how al-Jolani will likely act as the leader of Syria. The documentary mentions that al-Nusra generated funds by looting factories and kidnapping foreign civilians for ransom money to the tune of “tens of millions of dollars.”

The narrator also asserted that there are “numerous reports of torture in Jolani’s prisons” that included American journalist Theo Padnos who was jailed for 22 months. The film additionally mentioned that al-Nusra targeted minorities — implying attacks on the Druze in Syria and stating that it also targeted Alawite villages.

Despite the shock and euphoria that many are feeling with Bashar al-Assad’s ouster, Syria’s future is all but guaranteed. Given the history of al-Jolani, it is reasonable to assume that he will be a jihadist enemy of Israel, the United States, and much of the Syrian population. (RELATED: Approach Syria With a Tragic Mind)

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