‘The Substance’ and director Coralie Fargeat skyrocket in latest Gold Derby Oscar predictions

Who would hear their names called if the 2025 Oscars nominations were announced today? Since our predictions center opened on July 1, 2024, more than 6,900 people have made their forecasts in 18 top categories and there have been some major developments. Now expected to receive a nomination since the last update: The Substance in both Best Picture and Best Director for Coralie Fargeat, Marianne Jean-Baptiste (Hard Truths) in Best Actress, and A Different Man in Best Makeup & Hairstyling, according to the most recent Gold Derby Oscar predictions on Dec. 16.

Below, see a snapshot in time of our racetrack odds for the 97th Academy Awards, updated on Dec. 16, 2024 — aka the week after the Golden Globe nominations and the Critics Choice bids. See how the odds and rankings have changed over time by examining our previous Oscar snapshots on July 3, July 9, July 16, July 23, July 29, Aug. 6, Aug. 19, Aug. 28, Sept. 11, Sept. 19, Sept. 23, Sept. 30, Oct. 7, Oct. 14, Oct. 22, Oct. 28, Nov. 4, Nov. 11, Nov. 18,, Nov. 25, Dec. 2, and Dec. 10.

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Gold Derby’s Academy Awards odds are based on the combined forecasts of experts we’ve polled from major media outlets, editors who cover awards year-round for this website, top 24 users who had the best accuracy scores last year, and the mass of users who make up our biggest predictions bloc. Track the awards races by exploring all of our charts and graphs, and be sure to sound off in our forums.

The Oscar nominations will be announced on Jan. 17, 2025

BEST PICTURE

Predicted Nominees

1. Anora — 7/1
2. The Brutalist — 15/2
3. Conclave — 8/1
4. Wicked — 8/1
5. Emilia Pérez — 9/1
6. Dune: Part Two — 21/2
7. Sing Sing — 13/1
8. A Real Pain — 14/1
9. Nickel Boys — 18/1
10. The Substance — 25/1

Predicted Spoilers

A Complete Unknown, September 5, Gladiator II, Blitz, The Seed of the Sacred Fig, All We Imagine as Light
See more Best Picture contenders …

BEST DIRECTOR

Predicted Nominees

1. Brady Corbet (The Brutalist) — 37/10
2. Sean Baker (Anora) — 4/1
3. Edward Berger (Conclave) — 11/2
4. Jacques Audiard (Emilia Pérez) — 13/2
5. Coralie Fargeat (The Substance) — 16/1

Predicted Spoilers

Denis Villeneuve (Dune: Part Two), Jon M. Chu (Wicked), RaMell Ross (Nickel Boys), Mohammad Rasoulof (The Seed of the Sacred Fig), Ridley Scott (Gladiator II), Payal Kapadia (All We Imagine as Light)
See more Best Director contenders …

BEST ACTRESS

Predicted Nominees

1. Mikey Madison (Anora) — 18/5
2. Karla Sofía Gascón (Emilia Pérez) — 9/2
3. Angelina Jolie (Maria) — 11/2
4. Cynthia Erivo (Wicked) — 13/2
5. Marianne Jean-Baptiste (Hard Truths) — 19/2

Predicted Spoilers

Nicole Kidman (Babygirl), Demi Moore (The Substance), Fernanda Torres (I’m Still Here), Saoirse Ronan (The Outrun), June Squibb (Thelma), Amy Adams (Nightbitch)
See more Best Actress contenders …

BEST ACTOR

Predicted Nominees

1. Adrien Brody (The Brutalist) — 18/5
2. Ralph Fiennes (Conclave) — 39/10
3. Timothée Chalamet (A Complete Unknown) — 4/1
4. Colman Domingo (Sing Sing) — 9/2
5. Daniel Craig (Queer) — 9/1

Predicted Spoilers

Jesse Eisenberg (A Real Pain), Sebastian Stan (The Apprentice), Sebastian Stan (A Different Man), Hugh Grant (Heretic), Nicholas Hoult (Juror #2), Andrew Garfield (We Live in Time)
See more Best Actor contenders …

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Predicted Nominees

1. Zoe Saldaña (Emilia Pérez) — 71/20
2. Ariana Grande (Wicked) — 39/10
3. Felicity Jones (The Brutalist) — 11/2
4. Isabella Rossellini (Conclave) — 6/1
5. Danielle Deadwyler (The Piano Lesson) — 9/1

Predicted Spoilers

Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor (Nickel Boys), Selena Gomez (Emilia Pérez), Margaret Qualley (The Substance), Saoirse Ronan (Blitz), Monica Barbaro (A Complete Unknown), Jamie Lee Curtis (The Last Showgirl)
See more Best Supporting Actress contenders …

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Predicted Nominees

1. Kieran Culkin (A Real Pain) — 17/5
2. Guy Pearce (The Brutalist) — 4/1
3. Denzel Washington (Gladiator II) — 11/2
4. Clarence Maclin (Sing Sing) — 11/2
5. Yura Borisov (Anora) — 6/1

Predicted Spoilers

Edward Norton (A Complete Unknown), Stanley Tucci (Conclave), Jeremy Strong (The Apprentice), Peter Sarsgaard (September 5), Jonathan Bailey (Wicked), Pedro Pascal (Gladiator II)
See more Best Supporting Actor contenders …

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

Predicted Nominees

1. Conclave — 10/3
2. Sing Sing — 9/2
3. Nickel Boys — 5/1
4. Emilia Pérez — 13/2
5. Dune: Part Two — 11/1

Predicted Spoilers

The Room Next Door, I’m Still Here, Wicked, The Wild Robot, The Piano Lesson, A Complete Unknown
See more Best Adapted Screenplay contenders …

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Predicted Nominees

1. Anora — 69/20
2. The Brutalist — 4/1
3. A Real Pain — 9/2
4. The Substance — 6/1
5. Hard Truths — 9/1

Predicted Spoilers

September 5, The Seed of the Sacred Fig, Challengers, His Three Daughters, Saturday Night, All We Imagine as Light
See more Best Original Screenplay contenders …

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

Predicted Nominees

1. The Brutalist — 17/5
2. Dune: Part Two — 9/2
3. Nickel Boys — 6/1
4. Maria — 15/2
5. Emilia Pérez — 10/1

Predicted Spoilers

Nosferatu, Conclave, Wicked, Gladiator II, Challengers, Civil War
See more Best Cinematography contenders …

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

Predicted Nominees

1. Wicked — 82/25
2. Dune: Part Two — 9/2
3. Gladiator II — 9/2
4. Maria — 6/1
5. Nosferatu — 10/1

Predicted Spoilers

The Brutalist, Beetlejuice Beetlejuice, Blitz, Conclave, The Substance, Challengers
See more Best Costume Design contenders …

BEST FILM EDITING

Predicted Nominees

1. Dune: Part Two — 4/1
2. The Brutalist — 9/2
3. Conclave — 9/2
4. Anora — 9/2
5. Emilia Pérez — 15/2

Predicted Spoilers

Challengers, Wicked, September 5, The Substance, Gladiator II, Nickel Boys
See more Best Film Editing contenders …

BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING

Predicted Nominees

1. The Substance — 71/20
2. Wicked — 4/1
3. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice — 11/2
4. A Different Man — 13/2
5. Dune: Part Two — 13/2

Predicted Spoilers

Nosferatu, Emilia Pérez, Gladiator II, Saturday Night, Challengers, Joker: Folie à Deux
See more Best Makeup & Hairstyling contenders …

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

Predicted Nominees

1. Wicked — 71/20
2. Dune: Part Two — 39/10
3. The Brutalist — 9/2
4. Gladiator II — 11/2
5. Conclave — 19/2

Predicted Spoilers

Nosferatu, Blitz, Emilia Pérez, Megalopolis, Maria, Joker: Folie à Deux
See more Best Production Design contenders …

BEST SCORE

Predicted Nominees

1. The Brutalist — 37/10
2. Conclave — 37/10
3. The Wild Robot — 9/2
4. Emilia Pérez — 11/2
5. Challengers — 13/2

Predicted Spoilers

The Room Next Door, Wicked, Saturday Night, Blitz, Gladiator II, Nosferatu
See more Best Score contenders …

BEST SONG

Predicted Nominees

1. The Wild Robot (“Kiss the Sky”) — 4/1
2. Emilia Pérez (“El Mal”) — 4/1
3. Emilia Pérez (“Mi Camino”) — 11/2
4. The Six Triple Eight (“The Journey”) — 6/1
5. Sing Sing (“Like a Bird”) — 11/1

Predicted Spoilers

Will and Harper (“Harper and Will Go West”), The Last Showgirl (“Beautiful That Way”), Moana 2 (“Beyond”), Mufasa: The Lion King (“I Always Wanted a Brother”), Piece by Piece (“Piece by Piece”), Better Man (“Forbidden Road”)
See more Best Song contenders …

BEST SOUND

Predicted Nominees

1. Dune: Part Two — 17/5
2. Wicked — 9/2
3. Gladiator II — 5/1
4. Emilia Pérez — 13/2
5. A Complete Unknown — 10/1

Predicted Spoilers

Blitz, Twisters, Conclave, The Brutalist, The Substance, Nosferatu
See more Best Sound contenders …

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

Predicted Nominees

1. Dune: Part Two — 82/25
2. Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes — 4/1
3. Wicked — 11/2
4. Gladiator II — 11/2
5. Twisters — 19/2

Predicted Spoilers

Mufasa: The Lion King, Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga, Better Man, Alien: Romulus, Here, Civil War
See more Best Visual Effects contenders …

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

Predicted Nominees

1. The Wild Robot — 16/5
2. Inside Out 2 — 4/1
3. Memoir of a Snail — 9/2
4. Flow — 5/1
5. Wallace and Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl — 11/2

Predicted Spoilers

Moana 2, Lord of the Rings: The War of the Rohirrim, Piece by Piece, The Day the Earth Blew Up: A Looney Tunes Movie, Transformers One, Despicable Me 4
See more Best Animated Feature contenders …

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