Constructing the 2025 Cleveland Guardians with Steamer

What do the robots say?

As we assess where the Guardians are in mid-December of an offseason after an ALCS run, let’s take a look at where the publicly available projection systems have them.

As a note, I have tried to make some common sense decisions here, while also assuming health. Obviously, there are many, many reasons to doubt Chase DeLauter can stay healthy. This is best-case scenario if he is healthy. Also, I would have included Will Brennan on the bench, but felt the team would clearly prefer the switch-handed hitting ability of Angel Martinez on the current roster. Additionally, Martinez is probably a better option in centerfield than Brennan. With those asides out of the way, here’s how Steamer projection systems, available on FanGraphs, have the Guardians looking so far:

Lineup:
1. Steven Kwan - LF - 125 wRC+ (2024 MLB average: 108 wRC+)
2. Kyle Manzardo - DH - 119 wRC+ (2024 MLB average: 112 wRC+)
3. Jose Ramirez - 3B - 137 wRC+ (2024 MLB average: 118 wRC+)
4. Josh Naylor - 1B - 124 wRC+ (2024 MLB average: 106 wRC+)
5. Chase DeLauter - RF - 115 wRC+ (2024 MLB average: 101 wRC+)
6. Tyler Freeman - 2B - 109 wRC+ (2024 MLB average: 94 wRC+)
7. Lane Thomas - CF - 106 wRC+ (2024 MLB average: 95 wRC+)
8. Bo Naylor - C - 102 wRC+ (2024 MLB average: 85 wRC+)
9. Brayan Rocchio - SS - 102 wRC+ (2024 MLB average: 75 wRC+)

Bench:
Jhonkensy Noel - RF/LF/1B - 108 wRC+
Austin Hedges - C - 55 wRC+
Juan Brito - 2B/3B - 97 wRC+
Angel Martinez - OF - 95 wRC+
(Will Brennan - 105 wRC+, Cooper Ingle - 107 wRC+, Johnathan Rodriguez - 105 wRC+, C.J. Kayfus - 100 wRC+, George Valera - 97 wRC+, Gabriel Arias - 94 wRC+, Daniel Schneemann - 87 wRC+)

Analysis: There’s no doubt about it - Steamer thinks this Guardians’ offense has a chance to be pretty good. Even if we assume DeLauter will be hurt and make right-field a platoon between Brennan and Noel to start the season, the view still looks very rosey by these numbers for the Guardians to have an offense that is above league average. Personally, I am hopeful that if Freeman is given another shot, he may find his solid stroke, finally, and manage to be a good defender at second base (as he has been in a small sample in the big leagues). Overall, if Rocchio and Bo are truly going to be over 100 wRC+... this is going to be a great year for the Guardians’ offense, so let’s hope the computers are prescient here. Now, it’s hard not to dream about something like the Guardians acquiring Tampa Bay’s Brandon Lowe, who has played right field in the bigs, and platooning him with Noel in right field. Lowe is projected for a 117 wRC+ in 2025, but he also has a career 132 wRC+ against RHP, which would help a lot in that #5 hole and relieve the pressure on the team to get actual good performance from Brennan or actual healthy performance from DeLauter.

Starting Rotation: (Average starting pitcher in MLB in 2024 had a 4.15 ERA)
Tanner Bibee - 3.89 ERA
Gavin Williams - 4.13 ERA
Joey Cantillo - 4.00 ERA
Luis L. Ortiz - 4.63 ERA
Ben Lively - 4.81 ERA
(Shane Bieber - 3.59 ERA, Parker Messick - 3.74 ERA, Doug Nikhazy - 4.29 ERA, Logan Allen - 4.44 ERA, Will Dion and Matt Wilkinson both - 4.44 ERA)

Analysis: As things stand right now, this is projected to be an average MLB rotation with the chance for better than that if Shane Bieber’s comeback goes well and if the robots are right about Parker Messick. Obviously, the Guardians are betting on their pitching development group to at least get something close to Ortiz’s 3.35 ERA from 2024 or better from him, a result about which the projections are doubtful. In any case, the pitching depth looks solid but projections for 2025 tell us that a trade for Sonny Gray (3.43 ERA) or Dylan Cease (3.53 ERA), or signing Nick Pivetta (3.94 ERA), Max Scherzer (3.98 ERA), Andrew Heaney (4.27 ERA) or Kyle Gibson (4.27 ERA) would help raise the rotation’s floor - in some cases, significantly - and enhance its depth. We can get a little greedy and wish for that since Christmas is coming.

Bullpen: (Average relief pitcher in MLB in 2024 had a 3.97 ERA)
Triston McKenzie - 4.84 ERA
Pedro Avila - 3.98 ERA
Erik Sabrowski - 3.85 ERA
Andrew Walters - 4.15 ERA
Tim Herrin - 3.52 ERA
Hunter Gaddis - 4.16 ERA
Cade Smith - 3.13 ERA
Emmanuel Clase - 3.11 ERA
(Trevor Stephan - 3.94 ERA, Franco Aleman - 3.95 ERA, Nic Enright - 4.00 ERA)

Analysis: Even despite some significant regression seen for Gaddis and Walters, the Guardians’ bullpen looks very good, especially if we assume McKenzie’s numbers would look better in relief. Personally, I expect McKenzie to get another shot in the rotation, perhaps pushing Lively into Cantillo’s role in the rotation or in this long-man role. In any case, I don’t see any particular reasons to be concerned about the bullpen, other than that bullpens are always squirrely and when you think have enough relievers, you should probably go get more.

Summary: I am anticipating ZiPS to learn more about how the projection systems view this roster, but so far, I am encouraged by the numbers predicted for the players the Guardians have on hand. This is a solid, deep organization in most areas; let’s just shore up with a left-handed hitter who can play right-field and a veteran starter who can hang around 4-4.15 ERA and we should feel very good about the Guardians.