Buffalo Bills playoff scenarios: Can they still get a first-round bye?
BUFFALO, N.Y. (WIVB) -- The Bills are still in contention for the AFC's top seed with three games remaining in the regular season.
They'll need some help to jump the Kansas City Chiefs and earn a bye in the first round of the playoffs, but a tough remaining schedule and an ankle injury suffered by quarterback Patrick Mahomes on Sunday are keeping the door open.
Here are the Bills playoff scenarios ahead of Week 16.
The standings
First things first: Here are the current standings. The Chiefs, Bills, Texans and Steelers have already clinched playoff spots.
How the Bills can catch the Chiefs
The Bills are two games behind the Chiefs with three games remaining, but they do have the head-to-head tiebreaker.
That means the Bills need to win two more games than the Chiefs over the rest of the season to pass them in the standings. That sounds daunting, but check out the upcoming schedule:
KC schedule: vs. Houston (9-5), at Pittsburgh (10-4), at Denver (9-5).
BUF schedule: vs. New England (3-11), vs. NY Jets (4-10), at New England (3-11).
If the Bills win out to finish 14-3, and the Chiefs lose twice to finish 14-3, the Bills would get the #1 seed since they beat the Chiefs in November.
If the Chiefs managed to lose all three games and the Bills dropped one, the Bills would still have the head-to-head tiebreaker, but that leaves open a scenario for the Steelers to win out and create a three-way tie at 13-4. The Steelers would win a three-way tie based on their conference record, Buffalo would be second and Kansas City would be third.
What if the Bills don't get the #1 seed
The Bills can still finish anywhere from 1-4 in the AFC, but can't fall lower than #4 since they are a division winner.
Both the Texans and the AFC North winner (Steelers or Ravens) could mathematically pass the Bills in the standings, but that would require at least one major upset as the Bills will be heavily favored in their remaining games.
If the Bills finish as the #2 seed, they would host the #7 seed in the Wild Card Round. The earliest they'd have to go on the road would be if the #1 seed hosted the AFC Championship Game.
What to root for
If you're the Bills, you obviously want the first-round bye. Having the week off gives you crucial extra time to recover from injuries and scout the other games in addition to a free win. There's something to be said about staying in rhythm, but don't forget Sean McDermott is 8-0 coming off the bye week in his career.
To get the #1 seed: As has been the case all season (and probably longer than that), Bills fans want to root for the Bills to win and the Chiefs to lose. That's it. You can also root for the Steelers to lose when they aren't playing the Chiefs, but that only gives the Bills breathing room for second place.
Plan B: If the Chiefs aren't going to lose the two games the Bills need to gain, then you'd like for the Chiefs to keep winning. If the Chiefs lock up the first-round bye prior to Week 18, then at least the Bills would know that's not in play in the finale and could potentially rest key players ahead of the Wild Card Round.