If the Royals are done with big moves this offseason, it’ll be a letdown

This team is in win now mode

Mere weeks after the Kansas City Royals beat the Baltimore Orioles in the Wild Card Series and pushed the New York Yankees to four games in the American League Divisional Series, the Royals began making moves as they did last year. This prompted some excitement, as the Royals were aggressive last year and had some clear holes to fill.

Kansas City quickly extended Michael Wacha, their third starting pitcher and a key cog in the team’s huge year-over-year improvement. Wacha had a player option he could have exercised to hit free agency, but instead he’s back on a $51 million deal over three years.

Then, within a few more days, a few more fascinating news stories popped across our feeds. First, it was reported that the Royals checked in on Juan Soto’s free agency. Kansas City was never going to get Soto, but that they were asking at all seemed to indicate a certain level of aggression. Next, the Royals traded Brady Singer to the Cincinnati Reds for Jonathan India and Joey Wiemer. Signing pitchers early in free agency, kicking the tires on the biggest names in the market, and trading farm system success stories—those are the kinds of move that an aggressive team makes.

If the Royals bumped their payroll at the same rate as they did in 2015 after making the playoffs in 2014, the Royals would have a $130 or $140 million payroll to play with in 2025. But this was apparently a pipe dream, as The Athletic reported that Kansas City’s payroll next year would not be significantly higher than this year, and that they probably aren’t in the running for any additional impact free agents:

The Kansas City Royals expect their payroll to be in the same $120 million range it was last season, according to sources briefed on their plans. FanGraphs estimates the team’s current payroll is $116 million, leaving little flexibility for the front office to acquire the additional hitter it is seeking.

The Royals’ preference is for a left-handed hitter. Jurickson Profar, a switch-hitter, likely will be out of their price range. A more likely target is Josh Rojas, who was non-tendered by the Seattle Mariners. The return of free agent Adam Frazier is a possibility as well, and a trade for Mets third baseman Brett Baty also would make sense.

As I write this, it is a week from Christmas Eve. Plenty could change. The Royals could surprise somebody. Maybe the Royals find some money in the couch. But if the Royals are indeed mostly done with impact moves this offseason, it would be a huge disappointment.

That’s because the 2025 Royals are in a precarious position. This year’s Royals squad improved so dramatically because of two key reasons: A) an extraordinarily healthy and excellent cast of starting pitchers, and B) Bobby Witt Jr. turning in an all-time season. Per Baseball-Reference, Witt produced 9.4 WAR while the quartet of Seth Lugo, Cole Ragans, Wacha, and Singer produced a combined 16.8 WAR over an average of 31.5 starts each.

Witt and the rest of the starting pitching cast are as likely as any other group to repeat performances, but there is just no way the Royals can get that kind of performance and health luck again. To be sure, I expect Witt to be great again—but there’s nowhere for him to go, and starting pitchers can break at a moment’s notice.

Meanwhile, the Royals’ supporting cast is suspect. Nick Pratto, MJ Melendez, Tyler Gentry, Dairon Blanco, and Nick Loftin combined for -0.7 bWAR, while none of Michael Massey, Maikel Garcia, and Vinnie Pasquantino could muster more than 1.6 bWAR. In other words, there isn’t a lot of potential from the Royals’ young-ish players at the big league level, and the most interesting position player prospects haven’t played an inning at Triple-A yet.

While you can probably bake in some improvement from Vinnie and some bullpen improvement from having Lucas Erceg all year, the Royals haven’t done anything this offseason to really move the needle. Keeping Wacha was great, but he was on the team last year. Trading Singer for India works in theory, but how well it survives the enemy entirely depends on if one of (or a combination of) Kyle Wright or Kris Bubic or Noah Cameron can be functional understudies of Singer under the pressure.

The thing is, the Royals don’t need to make a flurry of risky gambits to try to claw their way back to the playoffs next year. They just need to stay aggressive. Witt won’t make such a low salary forever, and it will be harder and harder to assemble a team around him as his salary balloons to what he’s worth.

So the Royals could very cash in some prospect capital to swing a big trade moments after this thing gets posted. If so, that’s great. But if this is basically it, man, it sure feels like a wasted opportunity.