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‘Emilia Pérez’ and ‘Wicked’ up? ‘Anora’ down? How to unpack the 2025 Oscar shortlists

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On the surface, the Film Academy’s unveiling Tuesday of the Oscar shortlists in 10 categories represented giant victories for a couple of musicals named Emilia Pérez and Wicked. And they were. Emilia wound wound up with mentions for Best Song (both “El Mal” and “Mi Camino”), Best International Feature, Best Score, Best Makeup and Hairstyling, and Best Sound. Wicked made the contender lists in four lineups: Best Makeup and Hairstyling, Best Score, Best Sound, and Best Visual Effects.

The presumption is that these two films have rocketed to the head of the Academy Awards pack. This is both true and false. Yes, they both held serve in the Oscar semifinals, as it were. But it’s also no sure thing that their shortlist mentions will be parlayed into actual nominations. They did what they were supposed to do in the limited categories covered by the shortlists and nothing more.

But it’s more significant that a film poised to do well overall, the body horror thriller The Substance, scored just a lone nod for Hair and Makeup. The Coralie Fargeat hit starring Demi Moore appeared in contention for Music Score, Sound and Visual Effects as well. It was not to be. However, this isn’t necessarily an indicator that the movie is being utterly rejected by the Academy. The film could well score heavily when the actual nominations are announced in such marquee races as Best Picture, Director, Actress, Supporting Actress, and Original Screenplay, and few will remember what happened on Dec. 17.

Why do some films do far better than others when it comes to the shortlists. Why, it’s the categories, stupid!

See, one might look at a film like Anora, thought to be an Oscar frontrunner, and wonder why it would be completely shut out in the shortlists. Ditto A Real Pain and Nickel Boys. They shine through due to their direction, acting, and writing; none has the bona fides to stand out in Sound, Score and Visual Effects. Conclave was shortlisted for Score, as was The Brutalist, but not for anything else. Conversely, Joker: Folie à Deux, hardly an artistic success, made the cut for Sound. In other words, we shouldn’t go overboard when it comes to reassessing the critical favorites’ potential solely based on today’s news.

However, it bodes well for the highly touted The Wild Robot that it landed mentions in three categories (Score, Original Song and Sound) and none of them are animated feature. With Inside Out 2 only included on the shortlist for Score, Robot solidified its spot as the favorite.

Other snubs? In score, Jon Batiste’s energetic score for Saturday Night was passed over, as were those for the aforementioned Nickel Boys and The Substance. Just a week after its Golden Globe nod, Miley Cyrus’ “Beautiful That Way” from The Last Showgirl was a no-show for Original Song. In Documentary Feature, the final 15 did not include Super/Man: The Christopher Reeve Story, which was a surprise considering the reception of the film and the lingering love for its late subject.

Ultimately, the shortlist categories will be winnowed down to five, further reducing the odds of making the final list of nominees. The Academy Awards, after all, are a marathon, not a sprint. Tuesday’s shortlist revelation represented roughly the 16-mile mark en route to 26.

And if it seems like an ordeal to most of those climbing Oscar Mountain, consider the experience of legendary songwriter Diane Warren. She just got past the first round for her tune “The Journey” from the film The Six Triple Eight among the Original Song contenders. If nominated, it will not only be Warren’s eighth in as many years; it will be her 16th overall — and she’s still seeking her first win.

Oscar nominations will be announced Jan. 17 and the ceremony will take place March 2.

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