Why sky-high cocoa prices don’t deter chocolate lovers

You know that “Forrest Gump” line, “Life is like a box of chocolates: You never know what you’re gonna get”? To update that for 2024, “Life is like a box of chocolates: increasingly expensive!”

New York-traded cocoa futures hit yet another all-time high Tuesday — the price of a metric ton of cocoa beans has basically doubled since the beginning of the year. Drought-diminished harvests in West Africa are partly to blame.

At what price point will even the most loyal chocoholics pare back the $26 billion they spend on chocolate candy every year?

Well apparently, some people are willing to pay $400 for a very special single bar of chocolate. It’s from Ecuador, and it even comes with a special set of tongs.

“And why is this? Because our skin has natural oils, and the natural oils actually change the flavor of the chocolate bar,” explained Alexis Villacis. He’s an applied microeconomist who researches, among other things, the chocolate industry at Ohio State University.

Obviously most people don’t pay $400 for chocolate. But Villacis said craft chocolate lovers — the kind that splurge for those bougie dark chocolates in the candy aisle — they’ll absorb higher costs.

Regular Joe Six-Pack though, who occasionally pairs his Bud Light with some M&M’s, he’s got options.

“So instead of buying, you know, a pack of M&M’s, he might say, ‘Well, I’m just gonna stay with Skittles,'” Villacis said.

Some consumers may switch to desserts that contain chocolate, as opposed to chocolate-first desserts — think chocolate chip cookies instead of that Lindt bar.

Although we may see companies push the limit of that ever so delicate chip-to-cookie ratio, said Kelsey Olsen, a food and drink consumer insights analyst at Mintel.

“Maybe we’ll see manufacturers and brands shifting their formulations to be less chocolate in there,” she said.

Commodities experts expect cocoa bean prices to remain high next year, but Carla Martin at the Fine Cacao and Chocolate Institute said she doesn’t expect demand to drop all that much.

“People buy based on mood,” she said. “You can be in a bad mood and consume chocolate and then report being in a good mood.”

And even if it’s more expensive, chocolate is still a relatively cheap coping mechanism.