They Think It’s Moldova, It Is Now

Match day six of the Conference League takes place tonight, and despite this being the competition’s focus week, UEFA have still decided to make it take place on a Thursday night as per normal. Why they couldn’t do it in the actual middle of the week which is usually reserved for the Champions League, as they did with the Europa League when it had it’s focus week, is anyone’s guess.

Yes, this is the final match day of the league phase and therefore all the games are kicking off at the same time. But couldn’t that have happened yesterday?

The UEFA spread across a midweek, and the sheer number of midweeks they now take up, is something of an ongoing debate within the wider “too many games” discussion. Of course, FIFA, UEFA and the domestic organisations all refuse to give up any ground and even try to expand themselves further. UEFA have games in January next year after all which is new, and FIFA are introducing their Club World Cup next summer.

But that’s a discussion for another time. Tonight it’s all about Hearts and their hunt for a place in the knockout stages. After an excellent start to the campaign with wins away to Dinamo Minsk…

And at home against Omonia Nicosia…

They’ve lost the last three matches all by the same 2-0 scoreline. First was at home to Heidenheim…

Then away to Cercle Brugge…

And last time out away to Copenhagen…

That has put Hearts in the precarious position of twenty third in the table, second last of the teams who would go into the knockout round. More importantly, they’re only two points ahead of seven different teams who are on four points – NK Celje, Molde, TCS Backa Topola, Astana, HJK Helsinki, St Gallen and FC Noah – and three points ahead of a further two – TNS and Dinamo Minsk.

Hearts do need to be mindful of what’s behind them, because a defeat will almost certainly knock them out tonight. Celje are playing TNS so one of those two would overtake Hearts with a win, as would the winner of Backa Topola and Noah.

Such is the way this new league phase works, however, that Hearts are also still capable of catching the team in twelfth place, Pafos, which is a seeded position in the knockout phase! Of course, that would all depend on the results around them, and given Pafos have a +4 goal difference to Hearts’ -3, it’s not that likely. The next three teams – Gent, Olimpija and Heidenheim – are all a little closer on +1, +1 and 0 respectively, but again that needs a three or four goal swing.

Indeed, it’s highly unlikely Hearts will get that high even if they do win tonight given the final day fixture list will probably see some of those teams above Hearts picking up another three points. Mind you, if Hearts won big, they could still overtake Omonoia and Mlada Boleslav even if those teams won as they’re currently level on points and only behind them on goal difference – 0 and -2 respectively.

If Real Betis, Panathinaikos, Vikingur and Borac don’t win and Hearts do, then Hearts would go ahead of them even if those four draw their own games as they’re only one point ahead. Copenhagen need to lose for Hearts to go ahead of them, unless Hearts can somehow overhaul the +2 goal difference – but that would need Hearts to win by more than five goals if Copenhagen draw.

It is worth noting though that Omonoia and Borac are playing against each other, so something has to give there at least. A draw would be nice, Hearts would overtake them both then with a win. But even a win for one of them would mean Hearts overtake the other.

Which means the absolute worst that Hearts can finish with a win is twenty second, and therefore a win guarantees a place in the knockout round regardless of what happens elsewhere. That should be the aim.

The good news here is that Hearts are at home against the team second bottom of the table. CS Petrocub from Moldova have only picked up a single point from their five games so far. On match day one they opened with a 4-1 defeat at home to Pafos. Can’t find footage of this one.

They then lost 2-0 away to Jagiellonia Bialystok.

Before losing 3-0 at home to Rapid Vienna.

The point came on match day four, in a 1-1 draw away to Basaksehir.

Last time out they lost 1-0 at home to Real Betis.

Petrocub are already eliminated as they are four points outside the knockout round positions, so they are just playing for pride at this point. They could still finish bottom depending on how Larne get on at home to Gent.

Not a lot of history here to look at. Hearts have never faced a side from Moldova before, and Petrocub made it through qualifying for the first time in their history this season. Their first time in European competition was 2018/19, it took until 2021/22 for them to win a tie, and they won two ties in 2022/23.

This season they started off in the Champions League first qualifying round where they saw off Ordybasy of Kazakhstan but narrowly lost to APOEL of Cyprus in the second qualifying round and dropped into the Europa League. They beat The New Saints of Wales in the third qualifying round, but again lost to Ludogorets of Bulgaria in the playoff round to drop into the Conference League proper.

The Moldovan Super Liga is currently on its winter shutdown, the first phase having completed at the end of November. Petrocub finished third in that, thirteen points behind Sheriff Tiraspol and two points behind Zimbru. The eight team league now reduces to six, with the teams facing each other home and away once more in a further ten matches, but not until March! So Petrocub’s last two matches have been the last two Conference League games.

Hearts, on the other hand, are still in Scottish Premiership duty having lost 1-0 away to Kilmarnock on Sunday. They are currently bottom of the table, a point behind St Johnstone and two points behind Hibernian and Ross County. Next up is a home game against St Johnstone on Sunday.

This is definitely a winnable game for Hearts, and they would have been quite happy knowing that they were still in the hunt for European football after Christmas going into match day six in a home game against a pot five side when Hearts themselves at pot four and they had their pot six side away from home.

Admittedly, European football after Christmas isn’t quite the exciting achievement it was previously in the other two European competitions given two of the league phase matches take place in January, but at least in the Conference League it’s still an achievement. One that hopefully Hearts can enjoy.

Good luck to Hearts tonight! It’s live on TNT Sports 2 if you aren’t going along to Tynecastle.